Valero Texas Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds April 4-7

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Valero Texas Open teeing off from TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, TX. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the Valero Texas Open starting April 4th!

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Valero Texas Open	Valero Texas Open Betting Notes
When:	April 4-7
Where:	TPC San Antonio in San Antonio, TX
Defending Champ:	Corey Conners
Current Favorite:	Rory McIlroy (+900 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Valero Texas Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

Final prep week before The Masters and while several of the big names are absent this week, there are still a few quality stars in the field including Rory McIlroy who is still trying to find his footing here in the U.S. after a sizzling fall and start to 2024 in Europe. But at 8-1 to win, and seemingly with his eye on next week, it’s probably wise to avoid him this week.

Aside from him, there are eight other Top-20 players in the world in the field, this week including fellow Top-10 ranked players Harman, Aberg, and Homa. The challenge this week is identifying which of those top ranked players are here to win or are thinking of greener pastures.

The Oaks Course plays long measuring over 7,400 yards and features tree-lined fairways. Ball-strikers have thrived here with Corey Conners, one of the best in the sport, twice a winner here including last year.

In fact, if we look closer at last year’s leaderboard, it highlights the importance of ball-striking even more. Each of the Top-4 players on the leaderboard last year were the exact same Top-4 in SG Approach for the entire 2023 season. No flukes.

Like last week, we will see a large bucket of approach shots in the 175+ yard range including several over 225 yards thanks to some long par 5s and par 3s. Though, there will be a few more wedges with five par 4s coming in at 410 yards or less.

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Unlike last week though, there will be much more of a penalty for missing the short grass as the rough is 2.5” inches in the first cut before reaching as long as 4” inches further offline. By comparison, last week the rough was almost non-existent at less than 1.5” inches.

Interesting note for the live bettors out there, the winner has been no further back than 5th place after the 2nd round, so keep that in mind if looking for an outright winner heading into the weekend.

Finally, the weather this week could once again pose a possible tee time draw advantage. Thursday looks fantastic with light winds before they kick into high gear on Friday and Saturday.

If the winds blow all day Friday, then it doesn’t matter too much, but if they don’t arrive until later in the day, advantage to those that get out early on Friday.

There is a small chance of some rain on Sunday, but the winds subside for the finale so doubtful precipitation will have any major impact.

Valero Texas Open Outright Winner: Brian Harman +3500 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

From Nick Borrman:

I’m sure you can find reasons not to bet Harman this week, but the fact of the matter is we have a Top-10 player, one of four in the field this week, that is getting a 35-1 price to win?

That just seems absurd to me considering guys like Alex Noren, Ben An and even Harris English are at the same or lower odds. On principle alone, this number is hard to pass up.

Harman is coming off a missed cut two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship, but that was after finishing Runner-up at THE PLAYERS so let’s give him the benefit of the doubt on being slightly gassed. He also played well the week prior finishing T12 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Harman may struggle with his lack of distance this week, but his accuracy will likely help him avoid many mistakes. His short game is always on point and if he rolls the putter as well as we have seen him be able to do, he should contend.

Finally, Harman hasn’t played here since 2019, but he does have three finishes inside the Top-22 in six starts. He is familiar enough this week to do some damage.

Valero Texas Open Top-20 Finish: Billy Horschel +170 (Bet365)

I guess it makes sense to ride the hot hand with Horschel who is coming off a T7 last week in what seemed like the first time in a long time I can remember seeing his shots on Sunday on TV!

But that wasn’t his first solid result, he just hasn’t been getting any love. He also finished T12 at the Valspar and T9 at the Cognizant, so that’s three Top-12 finishes in his last four starts.

Horschel’s run seems similar to Justin Thomas. He too missed the playoffs but started playing well just before the playoffs and carried that through into the fall and this season with a run of seven Top-20 finished in nine starts between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour.

Like Harman, Horschel hasn’t played here since 2019, but he had a very strong run from 2013 to 2018 finishing in the Top-11 in four of six years. I believe his current form will give him the confidence to contend again this week on a place he is plenty familiar with.

See you next week for the first major of the year, The Masters!

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