2024 NFL Draft: 3rd Overall Pick Odds, Picks, & Predictions
The 2024 NFL Draft kicks off on Thursday, April 25th, and the New England Patriots currently hold the No. 3 overall pick. New England currently does not have a set starting quarterback, so oddsmakers believe the Patriots will be in the market for a QB.
That said, it’s clear that New England’s talent level is low, so a trade back to recoup picks and talent certainly seems plausible. Also, since Washington is almost guaranteed to select a quarterback at No. 2, the Patriots will need to wait to see what the Commanders do before making any selections.
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2024 NFL Draft: 3rd Overall Pick Odds
| Drake Maye | -135 |
| Jayden Daniels | +155 |
| J.J. McCarthy | +330 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | +1500 |
2024 NFL Draft: Favorites to be the 3rd Overall Pick
It’s no secret the New England Patriots need a new QB as they begin the Jerod Mayo era in New Engalnd. The Patriots will have a new coach for the first time in forever, and they got rid of Mac Jones, as he clearly was not the guy. New England signed Jacoby Brissett, who can start, but odds are they want a QB for the future.
These odds are subject to change and have already shifted back and forth multiple times throughout the past two weeks. We expect more line movement as NFL insiders get more information.
Drake Maye, North Carolina, -135
The Patriots need to see what Washington does at No. 2 before they get their QB, and at the moment, Washington has been linked to Daniels, leaving Maye ripe for the taking.
Drake Maye was the consensus No. 2 QB behind Caleb Williams all season long. Maye was better as a redshirt freshman than he was last season as a junior, but he still had a great season. In 2022, Maye threw for 4,321 yards, 38 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. In 2023, those numbers were worse; he finished with 3,680 yards, 24 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in two fewer games.
Despite this dropoff, Maye was still 1st in the ACC In passing yards. North Carolina, as a whole, took a step back, so it was not a shock to see Maye’s numbers dip. However, he’s great on the move, solid in the pocket, and has a cannon for an arm.
Maye was the favorite to be drafted No. 2 a week ago, and now he is at a plus price. Is this a smokescreen? There is a great chance Maye won’t be available for this pick, and there is a great chance the Patriots opt to trade back.
Jayden Daniels, LSU, +140
Jayden Daniels, a fifth-year starter, lit the SEC on fire last season en route to winning the 2023 Heisman Trophy. Daniels is a dual threat. He threw for 3,812 yards and ran for an additional 1134. Daniels averaged an absurd 10.05 yards per touch, meaning that, on average, every time he completed a pass or ran the football, he picked up enough yardage for a first down.
Daniels’s playstyle is an issue for several reasons, but he is still a lock to be a top-four pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. For starters, he did not often target the middle of the field, which raises the concern that he may not be a pro-style passer. Also, he took way too many hits and hits in the NFL are much harder and more damaging than hits in college.
Washington is currently favored to select Daniels, and if they don’t, who’s to say Daniels even fits the Patriots system? This is a tough one to predict.
J.J. McCarthy, Michigan, +300
No player has seen such a rise in 2024 NFL Draft circles than J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy was labeled as a game manager, which could be the case, but either way, he was the QB of the 2023 National Champions. McCarthy’s leadership, work ethic, and other intangibles have been praised, and all reports are backing this sentiment.
McCarthy was asked to hand the ball off more often than he was asked to make plays himself. He improved in passing yards, yards per attempt, and completion percentage last year. Still, he only threw that ball 332 times for 2,991 yards. He only threw four interceptions, so he was making sound decisions when he was asked to throw.
It’s hard to imagine a team taking a player who was not asked to lead his team with the No. 3 pick in the draft. We saw Will Levis get a ton of pre-draft buzz last season, only to fall to the 2nd round. Will McCarthy have the same fate, or is this pre-draft buzz more legitimate?
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, +1500
Marvin Harrison Jr. has been the consensus No. 1 wide receiver in this draft class since 2022, and while his talent is immense, he does not fit the mold the Patriots are looking for. There are three QBs who are highly coveted, Williams, Maye, and Daniels, and they are expected to be the top three picks.
With one of Maye and Daniels guaranteed to be available, it’s hard to imagine New England selecting a wide receiver or any team trading up to for anyone who does not play quarterback.
2024 NFL Draft: Best Bets to Make
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If Maye is taken by Washington, we would anticipate New England attempting to trade back from this spot. If Maye is available, New England will have a tough choice. If they love Maye, this is an easy selection, but if not, New England will certainly have suitors looking to trade up and get their projected franchise player.
New England’s roster is very, very bad, so they could see this as a long rebuild. The Patriots may opt for more picks and pieces rather than go all in on a rookie QB this season.
