The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds May 2-5

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the The CJ Cup Byron Nelson teeing off from TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX. Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, golfers to fade and other expert picks surrounding the The CJ Cup Byron Nelson starting May 2nd!

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The CJ Cup Byron Nelson	The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Notes
When:	May 2-5
Where:	TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX
Defending Champ:	Jason Day
Current Favorite:	Jordan Spieth (+1400 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Betting Preview

Back to normal this week, 72-holes of beautiful stroke play set to determine a champion in Texas. Jason Day defends in a very light field as a Signature Event and a Major loom over the following two weeks.

This is the fourth edition of the event at TPC Craig Ranch where the players have made it look easy. After playing as one of the easiest par 72s on Tour in the first two years, the course transitioned to a par 71 and…became one of the easiest par 71s on Tour! No matter the par, expect a shootout once again this year.

The course plays at 7,400 yards, which is a similar distance to August National, however it plays much easier as the course is usually wind-swept, aka, dry, firm and fast, shortening the overall length.

Fairways are wider than average, and greens are large which helps explain why greens in regulation numbers average above 70%.

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With forgiveness in mind, perhaps a guy like Spieth is worth an extra look this week. While he tends to get wild off the tee at times, if he can get away with it, he can setup birdies with the best of them.

Either way, his profile is not one to shy away from. Players must have the ability to go low and average a lot of birdies per round. Bogies can be avoided from errant shots more here than at most venues.

Weather will likely be a major factor as thunderstorms are expected every day with the highest percentages in the opener on Thursday. Winds will also be 10-20 mph all week with higher gusts especially as the weather turns and storms begin to develop.

With a 156-man field, it will be impressive if they can make 36-holes before the end of day on Friday. Thunderstorms are always hard to predict, so it’s near impossible to try and find a wave advantage, but as always, your best chance at figuring it out will be waiting until Wednesday night for the most up-to-date forecast.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Outright Winners: Thomas Detry +4000 (Everywhere)

From Nick Borrman:

Now in his second full season on Tour, Detry is starting to compete with regularity like he did on the DP World Tour. He has three Top-20 finishes in his last four starts, granted one of those was last week at the Zurich partners event, but a joint runner-up at the Texas Children’s Houston Open last month is indication of his potential.

I think Detry’s game will fit well here. He hits it a country mile off the tee but can be a little wild at times, however Craig Ranch’s wide fairways should help him find a few more over the course of the week. Detry also putts very well as he has gained strokes putting in 13 of this last 16 measured events.

This is his first time playing this event which is the only real negative I see with him, but considering this is just the fourth year at this venue, it’s not like there is a deep course history with anyone.

Finally, Detry ranks #10 on Tour in Birdie Average which is needed to win this event. The overall ease of the course should limit his bogies and thus help him keep low rounds going.

The CJ Cup Byron Nelson Top-20 Finish: Stephan Jaeger +165 (DraftKings)

Jaeger of course made his mark a few weeks ago as the only guy to have beaten Scottie Scheffler over his last five starts winning the Houston Open. Jaeger’s win felt like it was coming though as he had several Top-20 finishes plus two recent close calls with a T3 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the Mexico Open.

Like Detry, Jaeger has good length off the tee, though he tends to have a better iron game and short game. In fact, Jaeger has gained strokes on approach in 16 of his last 21 starts and has gained around the green in 17 of his last 21. He can also make birdies in bunches as he ranks #18 this season in Birdie Average.

Finally, Jaeger has played here each of the last two years, making the cut in both while finishing with a solid T11 last year. If he can have a decent putting week, he will be in the thick of it on Sunday.

See you next week for the Wells Fargo Championship!

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