Kentucky Derby 2024 Ultimate Picks, Predictions, & Odds – A Horse By Horse Analysis

2024 Kentucky Derby Picks, Derby Horses Predictions! The Only Guide You Need!

Marco D’Angelo, WagerTalk”s local horse expert, shares his horse by horse run-down of the Kentucky Derby, making Kentucky Derby 2024 Picks and Predictions!

The Kentucky Derby, also known as “The Run for the Roses,” is one of the most prestigious and exciting horse races in the world.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby, the 150th edition of this event, is scheduled to take place on Saturday May 4, 2024, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. If you’re a horse racing fan or just looking for an exciting event to watch, here’s how and where you can watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby.

Give our KBO predictions and best MLB picks a look too!

Kentucky Derby 2024 Horse Predictions

#1 Dornoch 20-1

This horse will be hurt by drawing PP 1 as he needs to be on the lead or just off of it to be a factor and by drawing the rail will have to be used hard to get position. His brother is Mage who won the Kentucky Derby last year.

Dornoch Projection: 

Don’t see him winning but could run on ticket underneath for Trifecta or Superfecta

#2 Sierra Leone 3-1

While PP 2 is not the most desired post it shouldn’t be that big of a factor as Sierra Leone is a stone cold closer and will be coming from way back anyways. Sierra Leone is one of the Top Horses in the race but will have to hope we get an honest pace, which I think will happen with all the speed in the race. With a honest pace he will be able to close but will still have to navigate thru a field of 20 horses avoid a traffic jam.

Sierra Leone Projection: 

Will be rolling in the Stretch a must use on all Tickets and a TOP Contender to Win

#3 Mystik Dan 20-1

Got to question if he’s fast enough and if he can get the distance and if the answer is yes to both of those questions you have to figure how does he work out a trip from PP 3.

Mystik Dan Projection: 

Mystik Dan is a nice horse just not nice enough to Win the Kentucky Derby.

#4 Catching Freedom 8-1

Catching Freedom is another horse who will be coming from way out of it just like he did in the Louisiana Derby. The added distance of a 1 1/4 mile should be to his liking. He has 5 career starts and has improved his Beyer figure in every start which is what you want to see as it indicates he hasn’t peaked yet. Trainer Brad Cox has been one of the most successful Trainers over the last few years and Jockey Flavin Prat is one of the best in the country.

Catching Freedom Projection: 

Major Player in this race especially if we get fast fractions in early part of race.

#5  Catalytic 30-1

Only 3 career starts so clearly has not peaked yet. His claim to fame is running 2nd to Fierceness in the Florida Derby but he was 13.5 lengths behind. Trainer Saffie Joseph does well at Gulfstream but doesn’t always race the same away from home.

Catalytic Projection: 

I just feel this horse is in over his head today with only 3 career starts. Look elsewhere.

Kentucky Derby EXPERT PICKS:

Going to Bet the Kentucky Derby? Ride along with WagerTalk’s Horse Racing Expert Marco D’Angelo. Check out Marco’s full video playlist of Kentucky Derby previews here.

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#6 Just Steel 20-1

Just Steel Ran a Big Race to finish 2nd in the Arkansas Derby. In that race he sat in behind the two favorites watching them battle. Once Muth put Timberlake away he was able to run past him for Second place. What I don’t like about Just Steel is he has 11 career starts which is just way too many for a Kentucky Derby horse. He is what he is and that’s a nice horse just not a Kentucky Derby Horse.

Just Steel Projection: 

I have all the respect in the World for D Wayne Lucas but I don’t see putting this horse in here. Pass

#7 Honor Marie 20-1

Ran a solid 2nd to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby which he improved his Beyer Figure to a career high 96 in just his 2nd start off the lay off. It was also the 1st time Jockey Ben Curtis rode him so you have every reason to believe he takes another step forward on Saturday. This is another of the deep closers that is going to need a fast pace up front..

Honor Marie Projection: 

Will be a big price and should be used on bottom side of Trifectas and Superfectas.

#8 Just a Touch 10-1

This is Trainer Brad Cox’s other horse as he has been in the shadow of his stablemate Catching Freedom but don’t sleep on him. Just a Touch only has 3 career starts so he has not reached his peak yet and it’s not uncommon for lightly raced horses to take a Big jump up from one race to the next. But really how much more does he have to jump up as he ran a good 2nd to Sierra Leone in the Bluegrass.

He has tactical speed and a Perfect PP breaking from post 8 so he will be able to break from the gate and grab a spot just behind the leaders. This will give him a jump on the closers and if those closers run into any traffic problems he could get clear. In 3 career starts his Beyer Speed figures have improved from 89,90 to 96 in his last start. The one knock is that he didn’t race at 2 and for decades the Golden Rule was horses that didn’t race at 2 don’t win the Derby except Justify did it and that’s his dad.

Just a Touch Projection: 

If you like Sierra Leone you have to like Just a Touch at a bigger price as he ran a good 2nd to him and should improve in his 4th career start. Live Longshot

#9 Encino 20-1

Here’s another Brad Cox horse but I think is up against here. Took a big jump Beyer wise winning the Lexington Stakes with a 94 figure. Henderson had to win that race just to get into the Derby and having to come back in just 3 weeks time I think is asking too much. I think he would have been suited to point to the Preakness. Some might say that Brad Cox has Encino in here to ensure we get an honest pace which would help his other horse Sierra Leone.

Encino Projection: 

I don’t see him getting the distance unless they absolutely walk the opening fractions.

#10 TO Password 30-1

Only 2 career starts and ships over from Japan. The Japan horses have not fared well over the years and this looks like a complete reach. He is here because he the race for the automatic berth but that field wasn’t anywhere near as tough as what he is going to face here.

To Password Projection: 

Complete Pass

#11 Forever Young 10-1

As we noted with the other Japan horse we haven’t seen a Japanese horse win the Derby. We have seen several that have come over with some buzz around them but all were no factors. Forever Young however may be the best horse to ship over of the bunch. His Win in the UAE Derby was impressive as he was wide the entire race and still wore down the leader covering all that extra ground. He’s undefeated in 5 career starts but this will be his toughest test. He should be sitting just off the leaders in a stalking position and have the jump on the closers. He is clearly the mystery horse.

Forever Young Projection: 

Hard not to have him somewhere on your tickets as he is 5 for 5 lifetime with his speed figures improving each race. Live Longshot

KENTUCKY DERBY SAT MAY 4TH ALL ACCESS PACKAGE

Marco D’Angelo not only Bets on Horse Races he actually owns and Breeds Race Horses and has done so since 1980. Join Marco for that 1st Saturday in May for the Run for the Roses the 150th Running of the Kentucky Derby.

Marco is putting together his All Access Kentucky Derby Package for Saturday May 4th. A few years ago Marco turned $390 in Bets on the Kentucky Derby into over a $9000 Payday for his clients. Marco knows Horse Racing from the Inside Out. Join him for his Saturday May 4th All Access Package and not only will get the Kentucky Derby just how Marco is betting the race himself but Marco will include all of his Baseball, Basketball and NHL Plays for Saturday as well. 

#12 Track Phantom 20-1

Track Phantom only knows one way to race and that is to be on the lead and catch me if you can. That’s good when you can control things and get the lead but it’s not going to be that easy in a 20 horse field with the best speed horse to your outside in the #17 Fierceness.

They are adding blinkers which is generally used to fire one out of the gate which he has not had a problem with so far. He tired in the Louisiana Derby finishing 4th and I see the same here with the added distance.

Track Phantom Projection: 

Will be a big price and could hang on for 3rd or 4th if we have slow fractions which I don’t see happening.

#13 West Saratoga 50-1

Ran a beaten 2nd in Jeff Ruby Stakes to Endlessly. West Saratoga was caught wide the entire race as he never could clear from the outside post and will have even tougher time breaking from post 13 in a much larger field. Beyer speed figures no where good enough to contend.

Projection: Will be no factor. Hard Pass

#14 Endlessly 30-1

The good news is this colt has 5 wins in 6 career starts. The bad news is that all those Wins were either on grass or synthetic surface. This is his 1st try on dirt and is asking a lot to make the jump up to run with these horses. His speed figures have improved in every start but he needs another major jump to get to where the Top horses in this race are already at.

Endlessly Projection: 

Has necessary style as a stalker sitting just off the front runners but needs to really have a major jump up in speed to contend. Could run on bottom of tickets.

#15 Domestic Product 30-1

Game effort to get up to win the Tampa Bay Derby as he came from just off the Pace in what was an extremely slow pace up front going 25.2 1st Q and 51.1 to the half. So it was impressive that he was able to get up but bottom line is I don’t think this horse is fast enough to go with others in this field.

Domestic Product Projection: 

Hard not to use a Chad Brown horse ridden by Irad Ortiz but I just don’t think he is good enough.

#16 Grand Mo the First 50-1

Grand Mo the First just doesn’t have the speed figures necessary to be competitive in this race. He finished 16 lengths behind Fierceness in the Florida Derby and I don’t see anything changing in this race.

Projection: Pass

#17 Fierceness 5-2

Fierceness is trained by one of the best Trainers in the country Todd Pletcher. In the Florida Derby he went wire to wire and never broke a sweat in doing so as he won by 13 1/2 lengths while being hand ridden to the wire. Jockey Johnny Velazquez never moved his hands the entire race. This is the Derby favorite and for good reason.

Because he drew PP 17 which by the way no one has ever won the Kentucky Derby from Post 17 he is going to have to leave the gate hard to try to get to the front before the first turn which is either going to take too much out of him early or have him going wide in that first turn. Neither are a good thing. The other concern is Fierceness has never run good races back to back in his short 5 race career. He is the horse to beat especially if he gets things his way early.

Fierceness Projection: 

On paper he is the most likely winner but with so many closers in the race and enough speed horses to run with him early I don’t think he can hold everyone off in the stretch. Use on your tickets but I think he gets caught late.

#18 Stronghold 20-1

Stronghold is a colt that is improving in every start for Trainer Phillip D’Amato but has been racing on the West Coast Circuit. He won the Santa Anita Derby but I thought that race wasn’t really that strong. This colt likes to sit just behind the front front runners then make his move late. Having post 18 I don’t see him close enough to run his style of race and I don’t think he is good enough to come from way back.

Stronghold Projection: 

Post Position 18 really hurts this horse I might of considered him to hit the ticket with a better draw but from here I’ll have to pass.

#19 Resilience 20-1

Enters the Kentucky Derby off a Win in the Wood Memorial for trainer William Mott. The Wood Memorial wasn’t that strong of a field and my concern is it took Resilience 4 tries before he broke his maiden. His Beyer number has improved in each start but he is still way behind the Top horses in this race. Junior Alvarado will be riding him for the 1st time since as regular Jockey John Velasquez will be on the favorite Fierceness. No disrespect to Alvarado but he isn’t as good as Johnny V.

Projection: Post Position 19 hurts his chances I’ll look elsewhere.

#20 Society Man 50-1

Society Man is in this race simply because he finished 2nd in the Wood Memorial earning 50 points. I thought that race was soft and now he draws post 20. His Beyer speed are way too slow to be competitive. Drawing Post 20 was the final nail in his coffin.

Projection: No Chance

Kentucky Derby EXPERT PICKS:

Going to Bet the Kentucky Derby? Ride along with WagerTalk’s Horse Racing Expert Marco D’Angelo. Check out Marco’s full video playlist of Kentucky Derby previews here.

BUY MARCO’s PICKS! Marco actually Owns, Breeds and Races horses and has done so since 1986. So when Marco shares his selections you are getting information from someone that knows the sport from the Inside.