The American Express Predictions and Odds Jan 20-23
The American Express Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s American Express from Riverside County in California. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| The American Express | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 20-23 |
| Where: | PGA West in Riverside, California (Three Courses) |
| Defending Champ: | Si Woo Kim |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+500 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Thursday-Sunday 3pm ET – 7pm ET on the Golf Channel |
The American Express Odds Board
Here is the current top-10 in this week’s American Express field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their current betting odds from DraftKings:
Patrick Cantlay +2.47 (+900)
Jon Rahm +2.38 (+500)
Sungjae Im +1.58 (+1800)
Scottie Scheffler +1.50 (+1600)
Corey Conners +1.38 (+2200)
Talor Gooch +1.37 (+2000)
Tony Finau +1.27 (+2000)
Seamus Power +1.25 (+2800)
Russell Henley +1.21 (+3500)
Matthew Wolff +1.18 (+2800)
The Courses
From Nick Borrman: The PGA Tour returns to the continental US after a two-week trip to Hawaii as the West Coast swing gets underway at The American Express, which is unique for a couple reasons. First amateurs join the fun over the first three days as they team up with the pros in the annual Pro-Am. Last year because of COVID, the amateurs did not compete, but they are back in the mix this year. The pros have the challenge of competing alongside of the amateurs while having all three rounds’ scores count toward their standard 72-hole tournament.
The Stadium course, designed by Pete Dye, is the featured course of this tournament. When it was built, it was deemed the hardest course in the nation and given the highest course rating the USGA had ever given out. When it first featured on the PGA Tour in 1987, the players hated it. The course was petitioned to be removed from the PGA Tour schedule, which it was for almost 30 years before returning in 2016. Now though, with all the changes in technology, the course isn’t nearly as hated as it was.
The Stadium course has an almost perfect mirrored finish to TPC Sawgrass, Dye’s ultimate gem, with water in play on each of the last three holes, finishing with a par-5 16th, an island green par-3 17th and a difficult par-4 18th with water lining the entire hole. It will, and always does, play to some great fireworks in the final round.
The American Express Field
This is far from a standard 72-hole tournament as the field of 156 play three different courses on Thursday, Friday and Saturday before the cut after round three. For the final round, the low 65 plus ties tee it up once again on the Stadium Course, the only course to use ShotLink this week, which measures Strokes Gained data.
This week’s field is similar to last week in terms of strength as only six of the Top-25 ranked players are in the field, although it is highlighted by World No. 1 Jon Rahm alongside last year’s Fedex Cup Champion and Player of the Year, Patrick Cantlay, understandably the two betting favorites this week.
Speaking of those two, Jon Rahm won this event in 2018 while Cantlay finished runner-up last year, shooting a course record 61 on the Stadium Course in the final round but fell one shot short to Si Woo Kim.
Nick’s Picks
Each of the first two events of the year saw a player ranked inside the Top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months win the tournament. At the Sentry Tournament of Champions it was Cam Smith, ranked No. 3 in the field in Total Strokes Gained, and last week at the Sony Open, Hideki Matsuyama was ranked No. 6 in the field in Total Strokes Gained going in. Keeping that in mind, let’s focus our attention on some of those players.
Patrick Cantlay +900 | +110 Top-10
In the long run, it doesn’t pay off to bet the favorites each week as usually the top couple guys are not being paid the number reflective of what their true odds are. But, if you are going to take one of the favorites this week, Cantlay provides much more value than Rahm does.
Cantlay is No. 1 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, ahead of Rahm, at +2.47 per round. He finished fourth two weeks ago at Kapalua and I already mentioned his runner-up finish here last year shooting that course record 61 in the final round, plus he finished T9 in his previous start here before that. Overall, Cantlay hasn’t finished outside the top-25 in any event since last May and his worst finish in his last four events is a T11.
Talor Gooch +2000 | +225 Top-10
I backed Gooch last week at the Sony and he was never really in contention but finished a respectable T-37 after finishing T-15 at Kapalua. But Gooch meets the criteria of the first two winners of the season, ranking No. 6 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months at +1.37 per round.
Gooch was killer in the fall, and you could just see his first PGA Tour win coming. Of course, I wagered on him three straight weeks before deciding to take a break only for him to then win the RSM Classic, but I’m not bitter or anything…
His run began with a T4 at the Fortinet, followed by a T11 at Shriners, T5 at the CJ Cup and T11 at Mayakoba. He then had a down week in Houston finishing 60th before breaking through at the RSM for his first win. If you don’t like Gooch for an outright play this week, check out a matchup with him as it’s likely he will be there over the weekend as he is a perfect 4-for-4 in cuts made here with three top-25’s.
One last note, Gooch happens to be a great example of shopping outrights. He is listed at just +2000 at DraftKings, but all the way up to +3600 at FanDuel, so always make sure you check multiple books when betting golf outrights.
Luke List Top-10 +550 | Top-20 +250
I’ll look away from the top-10 Strokes Gained list for a leaderboard bet this week on Luke List. This will be List’s first start in 2022 as he didn’t play either event in Hawaii, but he finished the fall series in very good form with three of this last four starts all finishing T-11 or better.
While these numbers are a little skewed as the biggest names in the sport haven’t played more than one or two times this season, so far, List ranks No. 1 on Tour in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green.
List’s weakness is his putter, losing a whopping -0.77 SG Putting per round over the last six months going back into last season. However, he has been so good Tee to Green that he has been able to overcome it. If he is able to have even just an average week on the greens, he should be in the mix once again come Sunday.
Andy’s Players to Watch
From Andy Lang: Abraham Ancer: He’s fade material the last two weeks, but those courses were set up for long players off the tee. This tournament can give longer players fits with all the water around it, and if your irons are solid from 130 and in, you’ll do great on the par 4’s. Ancer has two consecutive top 5 finishes at this tournament, and with his bad performances the last two weeks he’ll be undervalued.
Christian Bezuidenhout: I liked what I saw from him in his 2022 debut finishing 17th at the Sony Open. He’s creeped up into the top 25 in strokes gained over the last six months, and with him a first time player here the books might have a tough time figuring out a good matchup to put him in.
Russell Knox: Great tourney from him last week finishing 7th, and he’s got a nice track record here finishing 16th, 37th, 18th, 29th the last four years. He’s priced at 100-1 to win which means we should get a good head to head matchup to bet on him.
Andy’s Players to Fade
Charles Howell: Last week should be a big red flag for Howell. That’s his best tournament by far, and a 36th place finish is really bad for him. He’s missed the cut two straight years here, and if he couldn’t have a solid finish last week, he’s going to struggle this week.
Gary Woodland: Woodland has finished 50th or worse in 9 out of 11 tournaments with 7 missed cuts in that span. It’s been downhill since the US Open for him as far as consistency, and he’s been bad a lot more times than good. Fingers crossed we get a good head to head matchup so we can fade him.
Russell Henley: He was so close to winning last week, and that has to be a huge disappointment. After a big let down like that, he now plays at a tournaments he’s missed the cut at four times in a row, and the two times he made the cut he finished 49th and 56th. Let’s hope the second place finish inflates his value this week.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s American Express tournament? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | The American Express Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, professional golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang preview The American Express from PGA West in Riverside, California. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday at 10am ET / 7am PT as we preview the upcoming PGA tournament.
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