U.S. Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds June 13-16

U.S. Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the U.S. Open teeing off from Pinehurst Resort No. 2 in Pinehurst, NC! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the U.S. Open starting June 13th!

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U.S. Open	U.S. Open Betting Notes
When:	June 13-16
Where:	Pinehurst Resort No. 2 in Pinehurst, NC
Defending Champ:	Wyndham Clark
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+300 at DraftKings)
TV:	USA Network, Peacock, NBC

U.S. Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

U.S. Open Betting Preview

Major #3 arrives with the best players in the world in fantastic form. Scheffler is coming off a win last week at the Memorial Tournament, his 5th this season.

Schauffele won his first major at the PGA Championship and is the Tour’s active cut streak leader, and McIlroy has won twice recently and continues to be near the top of the leaderboard even when he doesn’t win. Throw in some LIV players and the U.S. Open should be nothing short of good drama.

Pinehurst No. 2 is the site of this year’s National Championship. The course will likely play very similar to what we saw at Muirfield last week with the same par-70 layout and similar distance coming in at more than 7,500 yards.

While the rough is brutal at a U.S. Open, this week is a different test as heavy rough is not in play around Pinehurst with tightly mown runoff areas the challenge for the players. Oh, along with more than 110 bunkers and sandy areas which include what they call ‘wire grass’ plants as you can see below.

That will likely create plenty of awkward lies and stances for the players this week and there is no doubt everyone in the field will experience at least a few of these lies over the course of four days.

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Those aren’t even the hardest challenge this week as you can argue the biggest test the players will be battling is the greens themselves.

Donald Ross’s famed turtleback greens are designed to repel balls that are slightly offline or not perfectly flushed and even good shots can have trouble holding. Not to mention the USGA is primed to have fairways and greens firm and fast which will likely keep the winning score in the single digits under par.

The last time Pinehurst hosted the U.S. Open was ten years ago in 2014 where Martin Kaymer ran away with the tournament setting a tournament record score of 130 (65-65) through the first two rounds and won by eight shots.

Other winners include Michael Campbell in 2005 and of course, none as famous as Payne Stewart’s win in 1999 which the Club features his famed fist pump celebration on the front lawn.

What the 2014 edition taught us is that Pinehurst is a 2nd shot golf course. The field averaged over 70% fairways hit which is absurd considering this season, only 12 players on Tour average more than 70% accuracy on fairways.

However, greens in regulation plummeted to just 56% and it only got worse from there as the course ranked as the hardest in putts per GIR and Scrambling.

As we saw last week at Jack’s tournament, players will need their full bag to win here. By the time the tournament ended at Muirfield, the leaderboard was littered with the biggest names in the sport and that will likely be the case again this week as there is no “faking it” with conditions as tough as expected.

Specifically, look for players with good long iron play, a great short game, and high bogey avoidance as key attributes to target.

Finally, the weather looks near perfect all week as temperatures will touch the low 90s all four days, with no rain in sight and hardly any wind to speak of. Only the battle between the Donald Ross’s design and the players’ minds will determine the winner this week.

U.S. Open Outright Winner: Hideki Matsuyama +4500 (FanDuel or MGM)

From Nick Borrman:

Since winning The Genesis Invitational back in February, Hideki has proven that he is back in form to win on the toughest tracks against the best fields and his number is very appealing this week.

Matsuyama won The Genesis Invitational with a ridiculous final round 62 and once again impressed this past weekend at Muirfield with a final round 70, one of only six rounds under par on a very difficult Sunday, to finish T8. Throw in a T6 at THE PLAYERS as well which only further proves the point.

Matsuyama is a great iron player and has fantastic touch around the greens which are both crucial attributes needed to win this week and he ranks 5th in Total SG over the last three months.

Compare that to guys like Viktor Hovland at 20-1 or Tommy Fleetwood at 35-1, and the Japanese major winner further looks like great value this week.

U.S. Open Top-20 Finish: Sepp Straka +275 (BetMGM)

Check out these recent results:

T16 Masters Tournament
T5 RBC Heritage
T11 Zurich Classic
T8 Wells Fargo Championship
T5 Charles Schwab Challenge
T5 the Memorial Tournament

If I gave you those results and asked you to guess the player, would Sepp Straka even enter your mind? Chances are no, and aside from one missed cut which came at the PGA Championship, those are his other six finishes in his last 7 starts.

That has him ranked 6th in this field in Total SG over that two-month timeframe with only Scheffler, Schauffele, Morikawa, Aberg and McIlroy ranking ahead of him.

That’s some rare air. Considering the longest odds of that group of five players is Aberg at 22-1 and +100 to finish Top-20, that just screams value with Straka available at 80-1 currently and this long +275 price for a Top-20.

Straka has also started to show some signs of life at the majors recently with a T7 (’23 PGA), a T2 (’23 Open) and T16 (’24 Masters), in his last five starts.

Finally, while Straka isn’t long by any means, he also isn’t short and ranks in the middle of the pack in distance. But he is very accurate which should help him avoid the big numbers and is the name of the game at a U.S. Open. Make a lot of pars and you will do just fine.

See you next week for Travelers Championship!

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