John Deere Classic Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds July 4-7

John Deere Classic Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the John Deere Classic teeing off from TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the John Deere Classic starting July 4th!

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John Deere Classic	John Deere Classic Betting Notes
When:	July 4-7
Where:	TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL
Defending Champ:	Sepp Straka
Current Favorite:	Sungjae Im (+1400 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

John Deere Classic Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

John Deere Classic Betting Preview

Last week provided an expected return to low-scoring, though Sunday’s finale proved to be difficult in the wind. This week should be similar and history backs that up as more than half of the winners here have finished lower than 20-under par.

TPC Deere Run hosts again this year as it has every year since 2000. Course history has proven a strong predictor so definitely take an extra look at those that have played well here.

TPC Deere Run is a par-71 that measures around 7,250 yards, a similar length to Detroit Golf Club last week. Both the greens and fairways are slightly larger than average by Tour standards, while rough will start the week around four inches which makes lies unpredictable.

After watching last week’s tournament in which so many of the top-25 players on the oddsboard played well, it’s hard not to want to circle that bucket again this week.

To put it into perspective, there were 19 players ranked inside the Top-60 in the Fedex Cup last week, and those 19 players made up eight of the Top-9 of the final leaderboard on Sunday.

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Skillsets I’m looking at are also like last week. The winner will need to possess the ability to go low, aka low scoring average and high birdie average, stuff his irons, specifically proximity to the hole, and greens in regulation, and be able to roll the rock, measured by putts per GIR and SG Putting. Simple formula really.

In need of a spark to his form, the field is highlighted by two-time champion Jordan Spieth who earned his first PGA Tour victory here back in 2013, but hasn’t played here since 2015, when he won his second time at TPC Deere Run.

But as far as rankings go, the defending champion, Sepp Straka is the highest ranked player in the field, currently sitting #24 in the OWGR with a total of just seven players ranked inside the Top-50 teeing it up this week.

The weather looks rather benign all week. A small chance of showers exists Thursday morning and a slightly stiffer wind is in store most of the day on Friday. Aside from that, temperatures will be around 80-degrees each day with dry and sunny conditions.

John Deere Classic Outright Winner: Maverick McNealy +3000 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

From Nick Borrman:

McNealy checks all the right boxes this week. He has solid form coming in with three Top-25 finishes in his last four starts. He also had several good finishes earlier this season with Top-10s at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS.

McNealy’s only real weakness is his irons as he ranks 21st SG Off the Tee, 12th SG Around the Green and 28th SG Putting which all leads to a 10th Total SG ranking.

He also owns the 12th best Adjusted Scoring Average and the 14th highest Birdie Average, highlighting his potential in a field like this.

Finally, McNealy has had two great results here recently. He did not play last year, but he finished T18 in 2021 and T8 in 2022. I like his chances to once again finish in the Top-20 or Top-10 with a sweat at winning Outright on Sunday.

John Deere Classic Top-20 Finish: Samuel Stevens +220 (Bet365)

Unless you are a real golf nerd like me, Sam Stevens is probably not a name you are familiar with, but the 2nd year Tour pro is playing some great golf right now.

Last week’s T10 finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic was his 6th finish inside the Top-15 in his last nine starts which includes the RBC Canadian Open, Myrtle Beach Classic and Valero Texas Open.

Stevens hits it a long way off the tee ranking in the Top-25 in Driving Distance and he ranks 35th in Greens in Regulation. While some of his other season-long stats don’t necessarily pop off the page, he has been doing his best work as of late. Over the last three months, Stevens ranks 9th in this field in Total SG.

Stevens did play here last year and missed the cut, but he didn’t have one Top-30 finish in his ten previous starts. He is obviously in much better form coming in this year and should give us a good chance at a Top-20 finish.

See you next week for Genesis Scottish Open!

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