Farmers Insurance Open Odds and Betting Preview Jan 26-29
Farmers Insurance Open Picks and Predictions
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Farmers Insurance Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | January 26-29 |
| Where: | The North and South Courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California |
| Defending Champ: | Patrick Reed |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+600 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Wednesday and Thursday on the Golf Channel, Friday and Saturday on CBS |
Farmers Insurance Open Odds Board
Here is the current top-10 in this week’s Farmers Insurance Open field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their current betting odds from DraftKings:
Sam Burns +2.20 (+2000)
Jon Rahm +2.10 (+600)
Justin Thomas +2.01 (+1200)
Daniel Berger +1.96 (+2000)
Bryson DeChambeau +1.92 (+2000)
Sungjae Im +1.63 (+3000)
Dustin Johnson +1.52 (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama +1.44 (+1800)
Scottie Scheffler +1.36 (+2000)
Aaron Wise +1.36 (+6500)
The Course(s)
From Nick Borrman: Not unlike last week, players will play different courses, the North and the South on Thursday and… ahem, Wednesday and Thursday, before switching over to the South only for Friday and Saturday. Note the attempt at a joke above is in reference to the PGA Tour scheduling this tournament Wednesday thru Saturday this week so as not to compete with NFL Championship Sunday.
Torrey is unique this season as it happens to have two defending champions in Patrick Reed at The Farmers along with Jon Rahm at the US Open. The course is the gem of the San Diego area and a favorite of the players every year.
The county-owned course underwent major renovations from 1999-2004 when the South course was lengthened from 7,000 to now beyond 7,600 yards and again underwent some more changes in 2019, both by renowned architect, Rees Jones.
Not counting the Pacific Ocean, only one water hazard is on the entire course, sitting directly in front of the 18th green which most people remember as the site of Tiger Woods 2008 US Open triumph, needing to make a putt not once, but twice, to win on that broken leg. Everyone remembers that 72-hole putt he made to force the playoff with Rocco Mediate, but many forget he needed to do the same thing on Monday, albeit only from about four feet, to force a sudden-death 91st hole, which Tiger ultimately won.
The Farmers Insurance Open Field
156 golfers will tee it up for the first two rounds before the cut down to 65 and ties, but this is the deepest field of the four tournaments so far in 2022, yet still not an elite field like a major or WGC event. World No. 1 Jon Rahm once again highlights the field and is the betting favorite for good reason. I already mentioned the US Open win here last year, but Torrey is also home to Rahm’s first ever PGA Tour win back in 2017. You can analyze all the numbers you can from this event and Rahm has been damn impressive and pretty much second in every category to, yea you guessed it, Tiger.
Patrick Reed is the defending champion of the Farmers Insurance Open with Marc Leishman, Justin Rose and Jason Day rounding out the previous four winners after Rahm’s win.
Nick’s Picks
Last week broke the streak of the first two winners of 2022 sitting inside the Ttop-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the previous six months. That should come as no surprise as Hudson Swafford winning at 175-1 was not on most people’s radars.
But, what is absolutely worth noting about that win and the trend that it continued, was in all three tournaments of 2022, the winners all ranked inside the Top-5 in Strokes Gained: Approach. Yes, that’s right, if you were paying attention (I was not), Hudson Swafford ranked NO. 2 in the field in Strokes Gained Approach over the last six months. How the hell did we miss that?
It makes sense, the guys that are going to win are the guys that are doing what Tiger did. Hitting stiff iron shots to setup more birdie opportunities that everyone else. With that said…
Daniel Berger +2000 | +225 Top-10
Berger is #1 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last six months by a wide margin, sitting at +1.78 with the next closest guy, Justin Thomas, coming in at +1.16. That’s a gap much too big to ignore.
The caveat though is Berger has not played much so far in the 2021-22 season, but he did finish T7 at the Hero and T5 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He also finished 7th here at the US Open last year.
Talor Gooch +5000 | +400 Top-10
For those wondering, the next four in the top-5 of Total Strokes Gained: Approach is Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Hudson Swafford and Austin Eckroat. While the first two anyone could certainly make a case for, the latter two have to be written-off as “not going to happen”.
But Gooch falls next in line at #6 at +0.85. Call be a glutton for punishment, but I’m going to back Gooch for the third straight week. Granted, his last four starts have all gotten worse, there is still plenty to like from Gooch, mainly being that his price dropped from around +2500 last week to now +5000 this week in a field that is not that much stronger.
He has fallen off the radar as a favorite underdog pick this week and that just means it’s the perfect time to take him.
Max Homa +7000 | +700 Top-10
It’s Homa in California, it’s that simple. The California native won two events in California last year, (technically one was this PGA Tour season at the Fortinet in September) and has finished T9 and T18 in each of the last two Farmers. Homa had a decent T15 finish at the Sentry TOC and although he doesn’t fit the bill as a Top-5 Strokes Gained: Approach guy, sometimes you just have to go with your gut.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Farmers Insurance Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Farmers Insurance Open Preview
On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicapper Andy Lang previews the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open from Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. Andy shares his thoughts on the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots and some intriguing head-to-head matchups. The Farmers Insurance Open will tee off on Wednesday, January 26 and will take place across the North and South courses at Torrey Pines.
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