Scottish Open Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds July 11-14

Scottish Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Scottish Open teeing off from The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Scottish Open teeing off on July 11th!

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Scottish Open	Scottish Open Betting Notes
When:	July 11-14
Where:	The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland
Defending Champ:	Rory McIlroy
Current Favorite:	Rory McIlroy (+800 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Scottish Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Scottish Open Betting Preview

The Tour shifts across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with the Scottish Open this week as a great tournament to prepare for the final major of the year, The Open Championship next week.

The Renaissance Club was designed by Tom Doak and opened its doors in 2008. This modern links course has hosted the Scottish Open since 2019 as part of the DP World Tour, before being co-sanctioned by the PGA Tour each of the last two years.

That has certainly deepened the field as highlighted by Rory McIlroy winning last year and Xander Schauffele prior to that. Previous winners in the weaker fields include Aaron Rai and Min Woo Lee.

This year is once again both a full field and a strong one, though notably world #1 Scottie Scheffler is not playing. Still, 11 of the top 15 players in the world are in the field this week with Patrick Cantlay as the only other eligible absentee.

The course plays to a par-70 and measures a little over 7,200 yards, featuring five par 3s and three par 5s.

It is built along the coastline so like many links-style courses, weather can vastly affect the scoring. When the wind is calm, we have seen the winning score reach 22-under par while Rory won last year at 15-under during a windy final round.

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ShotLink was introduced for the first time here last year and the data clearly pointed to this being a 2nd, 3rd and 4th shot type of golf course. Meaning tee balls rarely cost you, but approach shots and around the green finesse, likely often with the putter, will determine this week’s winner.

A couple other notable data points from last year:

1. The course saw the highest proximity to the hole last season meaning players were not able to get close to flags often,
2. It also led all courses last year with the shortest average distance of putts made.

What does that mean? Well, if history repeats itself, expect a lot of long lag-putting for pars (both on and off the green) and take an extra look at players that rank high in 3-putt avoidance.

As it currently stands now, wind is unlikely to be a major factor this week as it is forecasted to be calm by Scotland standards at 10-15 mph each day.

It’s too bad we couldn’t get Tuesday’s forecast of 20-30 mph winds with gusts over 40 mph into at least one of the four tournament days. But alas, the other standard Scotland weather will be present with temperatures topping out only in the high-50s all week and rain showers in some fashion likely all four days.

Scottish Open Outright Winner & Top-5 Finish: Viktor Hovland +2200 (FanDuel or DraftKings) | Top-5 +450

From Nick Borrman:

Hovland has been a player to avoid most of this season as his short game struggles have really held him back. How bad is it? He ranks 174th out of 175 eligible players on the PGA Tour.

So why the hell do we want to back him? Well, links-style courses don’t require the conventional short game and its often more about creativity and relying on your putter from off the green. That could help him mask his biggest weakness.

Hovland’s ball-striking remains elite this season gaining strokes off the tee and on approach combined, in all but one event. If he can even muster up a respectable week around the greens by just not losing strokes, he will be in contention.

To prove that point, Hovland gained strokes around the greens in one event this year and he subsequently finished solo 3rd at the PGA Championship.

Finally, the proof is in the pudding in Hovland’s past results during the ‘links swing’ as he has finished no worse than T13 in three starts at The Open Championship, plus he finished T25 here last year.

He may ultimately finish higher next week at Royal Troon, but if he gets off to a strong start, I expect him to give us a chance on Sunday.

Scottish Open Top-20 Finish: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +240 (Bet365)

It will likely surprise you to know Bezuidenhout ranks 6th in this field in Total SG over the last six months ahead of players like Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Matt Fitzpatrick, Corey Conners and Aaron Rai, yet they all are priced at lower odds than him this week.

In 18 starts in 2024, Christiaan has missed only two cuts and has finished inside the Top-25 11 times including four Top-10s.

He was horrible off the tee here last year in route to missing the cut, but he did have a T16 finish two years ago. His driver is his biggest weakness, mainly due to a lack of firepower, but that should be masked this week as the course presents as an approach and around the green test.

Bezuidenhout’s irons are decent as he ranks 42nd in SG Approach this season, but he excels with his short game and putter which will likely keep him in contention.

He has gained strokes around the green in 11 straight starts and has gained strokes putting in 12 of his last 13, the only negative being -0.05 at the PGA Championship where he missed the cut at even par.

If he even has a slight uptick with his approach play this week, he has the potential to contend.

See you next week for The Open Championship!

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