UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds August 3

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for August 3rd with the main event headlined by Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov in a bantamweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from the Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

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Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, August 3	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Cory Sandhagen +230 vs Umar Nurmagomedov -285
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -140 / Under +110)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
TV:	ABC

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Sedriques Dumas -218 vs Denis Tiuliulin +180

This could be a fight where we look back and think -218 was a gift. Denis Tiuliulin is cooked as a UFC fighter, and this is probably where he gets cut.

He’s lost 3 in a row, and he’s been finished in all 3, and he hasn’t shown any upside on offense as he can’t wrestle or get takedowns, and his striking is slow and ineffective.

Dumas isn’t great, but he’s younger, more athletic, and I think he’ll have no trouble taking Denis down and wearing him out.

Dumas has gone the distance in some fights so his cardio should be better as well. Dumas is the pick here, and is a great parlay piece.

Lucie Pudilova -125 vs Luana Carolina +105

Jai Herbert -192 vs Rolando Bedoya +160

Bedoya came in on short notice and fought great against Khaos Williams, but he regressed in his second fight losing to Kenan Song where he won the first round, but then dropped the next 2 rounds, and he got tired in round 3 which cost him the fight.

I just don’t know what he does great. His striking is meh, he doesn’t seem to have a great ground game, he’s not fast, I just don’t see any upside.

Herbert will be much faster, and even though hs’s 2-4-1 in his last 7 fights his losses have been to really good fighters including Topuria and Moicano.

I like Herbert to be faster on the feet, and I expect him to put on a veteran clinic showing different looks, and different levels to frustrate Bedoya. I like this fight to go the distance, and I think Herbert by decision is a nice play.

Victoria Dudakova -180 vs Sam Hughes +150

I think the wrong fighter is favored here. Dudakova is 8-0, and she’s 2-0 in the UFC, but she won her first fight because Nunes dislocated her elbow 30 second in, and then she beat Jinh Yu Frey (who is awful), but she struggled and got taken down once.

She had to pull out of her last fight because of a bad weight cut, and I think she gets her first loss here. Hughes has a non-stop motor, and she’ll still be pushing forward in the 3rd round which is a problem for Dudakova who doesn’t have great cardio.

Dudakova’s striking isn’t elite, and I won’t be surprised to see Hughes get Dudakova on the ground and control big chunks of time like she did against Amorim. Dudakova is very beatable, I think Hughes gets it done at plus money.

Shamil Gaziev -250 vs Dontale Mayes +205

I can’t believe Mayes has won 2 out of 3, but when you fight the corpse of Andrew Arlovski, and Caio Machado who has no cardio after 3 minutes, you get winnable fights.

However, Gaziev is better than Mayes’s recent opponents and I think he dominates this one. Gaziev has had a strange start to his UFC career as he smoked Martin Buday in his debut, and then found himself in a 5-round main event against Rozenstruik in his second fight where he was outclassed and had his lack of striking defense exposed.

He’s going to have the better striking and the better cardio, and I also think he’s going to be better in the clinch where I expect a lot of this fight to take place. Mayes doesn’t have any upside, he’s slow and doesn’t have the striking to scare Gaziev. Gaziev should roll in this one.

Guram Kutateladze -240 vs Jordan Vucenic +188

I can’t believe Guram is coming in off a 2 fight losing streak, but he lost a close split decision, and then got gassed and finished by Brener.

After that amazing fight against Gamrot, I thought we would see him fly up the rankings, but that fight was in 2020, and he’s only fought twice since then, losing both.

Jordan Vucenic steps in on short notice, and while he’s 13-2 he’s fought awful competition. He looks to have decent striking, and a good submission game, but if Guram is fighting at the level he’s capable of, I think he schools Vucenic with his movement, and grappling.

That being said, I don’t know what Guram has been doing or what shape he’s in so I’ll stay away from this fight.

Kaue Fernandes -340 vs Mohammad Yahya +270

Neither of these guys are great UFC fighters, but I’m really low on Yahya. He came in to the UFC to fight Trevor Peek, and I didn’t have high expectations, and he was worse than I thought.

His striking isn’t good, he’s hittable on the feet, and Peek was able to control him against the fence and on the ground.

Overall, he just looks tentative, and not UFC caliber. Even just the way he stands and holds his hands in the octagon doesn’t look crisp. Fernandes lost a close fight in his debut to Diakiese, but he was competitive despite getting taken down several times by Diakiese.

Yahya is a fade, but there’s no chance I’m laying -340 on Fernandes. I think these guys are pretty equal, and with their limited offense I wouldn’t be surprised to see this fight go the distance so taking overs might be solid plays.

Azamat Murzakanov -205 vs Alonzo Menifield +170 

Murzakanov goes for 14-0, and while I think he gets it, I think this could be much closer than the odds would suggest. His striking is good, and so is his wrestling, but he wasn’t  exactly dominant against Dustin Jacoby, and in the third round Jacoby was able to hold  

him down and land some good strikes at times. Menifield is on the back end of his  career, but he can wrestle with Azamat, and he can certainly strike with him, but his  cardio isn’t great, and he’s very hittable on the feet.

I lean Azamat, but I’m not betting on it as I don’t think he’s as good as his 14-0 record indicates. I like this fight to go the distance as both guys are tough and durable and anyone getting a finish would be tough.

Joel Alvarez -142 vs Elves Brener +120

This could be an amazing fight as both guys are exciting. Brener has huge KO potential as he stunned Kutateladze in the 3rd with a KO, and then KO’d Kruschewsky after that.

However, in his next fight, Orolbai exposed his lack of takedown defense and ground game, and that’s a big problem against Alvarez.

Alvarez likes to strike, but when he gets guys on the ground, his submission and ground game are lethal. If Alvarez is smart, he’ll waste no time getting this to the ground, but he doesn’t really do that as he seems to prefer to strike in the first round.

Alvarez is the rightful favorite, and I think he wins, but the best way to play this fight is to take it not to go the distance or under 2.5. Brener can KO just about anyone, and Alvarez is a finishing machine. This fight won’t see the scorecards.

Sharabutdin Magomedov -265 vs Michal Oleksiejczuk +215

Oleksiejczuk is a predictable fighter, and because of that we’ve made a lot of money betting on his fights. He has absolutely no ground game whatsoever, and if he gets taken down, it’s over.

If he can keep it on the feet, he can strike well, and he has a chance. He’s lost 3 out of 4 fights, and sure enough his losses are all by submission on the ground, and his win was when he KO’d Njokuani on the feet when Njokuani gasses.

Shara loves his kicks on the feet, and he will be sure to use them to keep Olek at distance, but the smart strategy would be for him to try to get Olek down on the ground because I don’t think Shara’s striking defense is very good.

He’s hittable and Olek can do some damage if he has an opening. I think Shara is better, and he should win, but in the end, I probably won’t bet this fight as I worry that Shara will try and win a striking match, and that’s asking for trouble.

Michael Chiesa -440 vs Tony Ferguson +390

This fight is ridiculous. Two guys who are way past their prime, and they have combined for 10 straight losses.

I’m not betting on Ferguson who probably has CTE beyond belief at this point, but there’s no world where I’m laying -440 on Chiesa who was basically non-competitive in his last fight. There’s nothing to bet on here, move on to the next fight.

Mackenzie Dern -122 vs Loopy Godinez -104

I’m pretty surprised to see Dern as the favorite here as she’s 2-4 in her last 6 fights, and she hasn’t looked good in her last 2 as she got finished by Andrade, and then Lemos really beat her up as the fight went on.

Loopy has gone from a wrestler to a striker, so much so that Jandiroba just beat her by outwrestling her. Dern is just so hittable on the feet that I think Loopy does have success with striking, and I don’t see Dern having much success trying to wrestle and control Loopy.

I think Dern is fade material these days, I’ll take Loopy to win a decision.

Deiveson Figueirdo -180 vs Marlon Vera +140

I’m taking this fight to go the distance, I don’t care who wins. Vera starts off slow, and his last 3 fights have gone the distance, and Figuierdo went the distance against Rob Font in his debut at the new weight class.

He got the choke win agaisnt Cody Garbrandt, but Garbrandt isn’t Vera, and Vera won’t let Figueirdo control him like that.

These guys are cerebral fighters, and they know how to stay out of danger, and I don’t see who finishes who in this one. I expect low volume in strikes, and a decision for whoever wins this one.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Cory Sandhagen +230 vs Umar Nurmagomedov -285

This line is crazy to me. Umar has beaten Nate Maness, Raoni Barcelos, and Bekzat Almakhan in his last 3, and now he’s almost -300 to Sandhagen? That’s crazy.

I guess the thinking is that Umar will take Sandhagen down and control him and dominate the fight on the ground, but Sandhagen just dominated Rob Font with takedowns and ground control so I don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Umar dominates the ground game.

I also like Sandhagen’s striking a bit better as it’s more creative, and comes from different angles, and Umar hasn’t fought anyone who strikes like that.

The last thing I like is that Sandhagen has fought much better competition. Even though he has a few losses, he’s been in there with Petr Yan, Marlon Vera, and steroided up T.J. Dillashaw. This is by far the toughest test for Nurmagomedov, and to lay -285 is crazy. Sandhagen is the play at this price.

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