FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions, Best Bets, Free Picks and Odds August 15-18

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the FedEx St. Jude Championship teeing off from TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the FedEx St. Jude Championship teeing off on August 15th! And, don’t forget, at WagerTalk you can always find the best NFL bets today updated constantly.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship	FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Notes
When:	August 15-18
Where:	TPC Southwind in Memphis, TN
Defending Champ:	Lucas Glover
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+330 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

FedEx St. Jude Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview

If you haven’t yet figured out how the playoffs work, I guess I can take a minute to explain. Only the Top 70 players in the FedExCup standings have qualified to play this week and only the Top 50 will qualify to play at next week’s BMW Championship. That means for 20 in the field, this is their last tournament of the season.

While picking the tournament winner is always a highlight, the other storyline worth watching is the “bubble.” While there will certainly be drama, the actual movement was limited as only two players last year were able to jump into the Top 50 at the conclusion of this event, and both required Top-10 finishes to do so. It’s a good reminder to not ignore those bottom players and pick one or two guys that might be worth a Top Finish bet.

TPC Southwind is a par 70 that plays a little north of 7,200 yards. With only two par-5s on the card, that means there are plenty of longer par-4s to make up the distance with eight measuring longer than 450 yards.

With thick rough measuring three inches and small greens coming in at just 4,300 square feet (for comparison, Pebble Beach is the smallest on Tour at 3,600 square feet), keeping it in the short grass is likely more important than distance this week.

Smaller greens can also mask a putting deficiency as long as their ball-striking remains solid as they will make up for a few misses with the flatstick just by hitting more greens than the field.

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That profile highlights each of the last two winners of this tournament perfectly as both Lucas Glover and Will Zalatoris can be described as good ball-strikers but poor putters.

The problem for the field is that points directly to Scottie Scheffler again. If you aren’t turned on by betting a +350 Outright future, then make sure to check the ‘Without Scheffler’ markets this week.

Perhaps even more importantly though, was the form of those two players as you could see their win coming. Glover had just won the week prior at the Wyndham Championship to make it back-to-back wins while he also had three Top-6 finishes in his four starts prior to the Wyndham.

Similarly, though he didn’t win the week before, Zalatoris had six Top-6 finishes in 12 starts leading up to the Wyndham so his breakthrough was only a matter of when, not if.

One more winner’s trend that’s worth mentioning is that there have been 14 ‘Big’ tournament this year, the combined total of the Majors, Signature Events, THE PLAYERS and Olympics.

11 of those winners ranked inside the Top-10 Total SG over each of the last three, six and 12 months. Following that trend narrows the list of potential winners down to just six: Scheffler, Schauffele, McIlroy, Morikawa, Fleetwood and Henley.

The first four are not a surprise and are priced accordingly at 12-1 or less, but Fleetwood at 20-1 and Henley at 35-1 could provide some value this week.

Finally, while weather was the major storyline last week in North Carolina, this week it looks to be basically a non-factor.

Well, that is assuming fatigue isn’t an issue with temperatures in the mid-90s all four days. If players can survive that, light winds at 5-10 mph and dry conditions will be in store for the entire tournament with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm. You can basically pay no attention to it this week.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Winner: Rory McIlroy +1000 (Bet365)

From Nick Borrman:

I’m a believer in data and trends and it’s hard for me to ignore the winner trends in the Big events this season that I highlighted earlier.

11 of 14 (78%) Big tournaments this season have been won by a player ranking in the Top-10 in Total SG over each of the last three, six and 12 months and considering where Scottie and Xander’ price comes in, Rory provides a little value over both of them this week.

Sure, all we seem to remember about Rory is his missed putt on 18 at the U.S. Open to settle for solo 2nd, or his poor performance at The Open Championship where he missed the cut, though in his defense, he was on the poor side of the draw.

Due to the standard expected of him, it’s easy to look past his other recent results which include eight Top-15 finishes in his last nine starts including two wins at the Zurich Classic and Wells Fargo Championship.

He is also a three-time FedExCup winner so he knows how to perform this time of year.

Rory’s biggest strength is his driver and while I mentioned distance isn’t likely to be an important metric this week, it never hurts if he can keep it in the fairway. But still, #1 SG Off the Tee, #2 SG Tee to Green, #3 Total SG scream that he will be in contention.

Lastly, seven starts at this tournament and while he hasn’t won, he does have four Top-12 finishes including a T3 last year.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Top-10 Finish: Sepp Straka +175 (DraftKings or FanDuel)

Straka fits the player profile this week as he is an excellent ball-striker while he often leaves much to be desired on the greens.

Straka ranks 11th in the field in SG Approach over the last six and 12 months while slightly higher in the shorter term, ranking 8th over the last three months. An important metric to pay attention to this week with TPC Southwind’s small greens.

While Sepp doesn’t hit it far, he is as accurate as the come with his driver ranks #1 on Tour this season in driving accuracy, hitting 72% of fairways. Again, with small greens, aka, less margin for error, hitting from the fairway should be considered slightly more than normal.

Meanwhile, his weaknesses can be his putting and short game, both of which I’m weighting lower this week due to the small greens (he should have less instances where he needs to get up and down).

How has that translated into results for Straka? Well since THE PLAYERS in March, Straka has missed three cuts in 15 starts, but he also has nine Top-25 finishes including four Top-10s.

Finally, this will be Straka’s third start here and while he finished with an uninspiring 63rd last season, he finished runner-up in 2022 so hoping he can bring those vibes with him this week.

See you next week for the BMW Championship!

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