SMU Football Predictions for 2024: SMU Mustangs Football Total Wins Picks, Best Bets & Games To Watch

Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky looks at SMU college football and its chances in 2024. Ron provides expert picks for betting on the SMU Mustangs in 2024.

Ron also offers total win predictions for SMU in 2024 (a great betting NCAAF betting future), areas to watch, favorability of schedule, and offers best bets tips on the SMU Mustangs.

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In a partnership with WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels, the GoldSheet team has compiled a 60-page college football betting guide to help you prepare for the 2024-25 season.

Available free of charge, this preseason guide features our summer power ratings, projected point spreads and win probabilities for EVERY game of the upcoming season, plus coaching changes, quarterback transfers and much more. 

SMU College Football 2024 Preview: What’s the Situation?

By Power Numbers alone, SMU’s rating from ’20-22 suggest that they belong in the ACC, topping out at around the 6-6 range.  Using ’23 data, SMU looked like a 9-3 team until they imploded in the bowl game “at” Boston College.  This will be a solid case study in matching talent vs. level of opponent.  How good is SMU?  

2024 SMU NCAAF AREAS TO WATCH:

Preston Stone looks like an above average QB.  Having ALL of his WR’s back, plus a quality TE can’t hurt.  There’s depth at RB and the OL seems decent. 

What will the stat sheet look like?  I’m toning down the run projection (4.2 per carry) as a result of the schedule bump, but will chart this area during October to see if my #’s are low (exceeded this figure the past five seasons). 

My biggest change is with the run defense.  SMU clocked in at a stout 3.15-111 last year, but I have them at 4.5 this year.  They’ll likely start faster based on the schedule, so once again, October will give us all a better clue as to what the proper level really is. 

I’ve also put the projected pass D% at 60.5%, which again would be their worst figure wince ’18.  Could I be wrong?  The answer is yes with SMU returning it’s top seven tacklers, but both CB’s departed, and they’ll face better QB’s and better OL’s this season.  

SMU Football 2024 Predicted Total Wins Prediction

I like the offense and the head coach, but am erring on the side of caution with SMU in year #1. 

Games that will tell their story are hosting TCU (60%), road games at Stanford/Duke (1-1), hosting Pittsburgh (55-60%) and at Virginia (50%).  That gives me something like 7.5 wins, giving me a small play on UNDER their 8.5 total.  9-3 is possible, primarily because they didn’t lose a lot of talent. 

College Football Week 0 Betting Picks & Predictions 2024

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2024 SMU Football Schedule and Games to Watch

SMU faced four teams with solid Power Numbers in ’23.  The point ratio in those four games was 92-110.  SMU won’t face a plethora of top tier teams (just FSU and Louisville, and then TCU), but the middle of the schedule is tougher than what they faced in the AAC. 

I expect 3-0 before a rested SMU takes on TCU.  FSU and at Louisville follow, so this is more likely a 4-2 ceiling, or a 3-3 record before a well-placed week off. 

In SMU’s case, the ACC did them no travel favors.  They go to the west coast to face Stanford and then go to the east coast to face Duke.  SMU “should” extract bowl revenge hosting Boston College. 

If that doesn’t happen, then it is safe to assume that SMU’s current level of play is not as high as some people might hope for.  They close with games at Virginia and home to Cal (pre-check both team’s motivational level.  

SMU 2024 Football Expert HANDICAPPING TIP

Given the bump up in conference, plus easy games 1-3, I’m 1st looking at fading them when not a rush pick if the technical and situations factors agree. 

I’m also concerned about the consecutive road games, and will try to factor in motivation more than usual in that final game hosting Cal. 

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Grab the GoldSheet 2024-2025 Betting Guide

In a partnership with WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels, the GoldSheet team has compiled a 60-page college football betting guide to help you prepare for the 2024-25 season.

Available free of charge, this preseason guide features our summer power ratings, projected point spreads and win probabilities for EVERY game of the upcoming season, plus coaching changes, quarterback transfers and much more. 

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen CFB

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