Missouri vs Texas A&M SEC Football Predictions Oct 16

Missouri Tigers vs Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview

WagerTalk college football handicapper Steve Merril offers his Missouri vs Texas A&M SEC Football betting preview. At the time of posting, the Aggies are a 9-point road favorite at Missouri with the total sitting at 59.5 points.

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Missouri vs Texas A&M Predictions

Texas A&M -9 at Missouri on Saturday, October 16.
Total: 59.5 Points
Texas A&M is 6-2 against the spread in the Aggies’ last eight conference road games.
Missouri has failed to cover the spread in each of the Tigers’ last nine games.

As a handicapper, one of the first things you should do each week is look for games in which a possible letdown might occur after a big win or a tough defeat. Obviously, the biggest upset win last week was Texas A&M defeating No. 1-ranked Alabama as an 16-point underdog. Many feel this will lead to a flat spot for the Aggies now as a 9-point road favorite at Missouri. My power ratings favor Texas A&M by 10.5 points this Saturday, so the current line is a bit low and it appears the oddsmakers are pricing in a possible letdown.

However, Texas A&M is more than capable of keeping their offensive momentum going against a terrible Missouri defense that can not stop anyone this season, and has yet to cover a point spread going 0-6 ATS. The Tigers finished last season 0-3 ATS, so they are now 0-9 ATS in their past nine games. The problem has been a terrible defense that allows a horrendous 37.5 points per game and 6.8 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that average 31.2 points per game and 6.1 yards per play). Missouri has been equally bad against both the run and pass, allowing 288 rushing yards per game (6.1 yards per rush) and 211 passing yards (8.2 yards per pass vs. opponents that average just 7.3 yards per pass). Overall, the Tigers have now allowed at least 35+ points or more in 7 of their past 8 games versus FBS opponents. The over is 8-1 in Missouri’s last nine games.

Texas A&M was the No. 5-ranked team last season and just missed making the four-team playoff. Big things were expected from the Aggies this season, but they got off to a slow start with a lackluster 10-7 win versus Colorado and an ugly 20-10 loss versus a good Arkansas team. A hangover ensued the following week when Texas A&M lost outright as a 7-point home favorite versus Mississippi State. However, the Aggies bounced back last week with a 41-38 upset win against Alabama. The offense finally woke up and overall this season, Texas A&M is averaging 5.9 yards per play versus a schedule of tough opponents that permit only 5.4 yards per play. The Aggies are now taking a huge step down in class versus a terrible Missouri defense.

Texas A&M will get their points once again this week, but if they are a bit flat, it will most likely show on defense. Missouri has some backdoor cover potential with an offense that is averaging 37.8 points per game on 6.6 yards per play this season. Therefore, the best value in this game is playing over 59.5 total points.

🏈 After Texas A&M’s huge upset win last week, your first instinct is to probably fade them this week, right? @SteveMerril says, “Not so fast.” The Aggies are playing a Missouri team that hasn’t covered a point spread in nine-straight games.
➡️ https://t.co/e5CVmGe8cU pic.twitter.com/0hrZGizevz

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) October 13, 2021

Missouri vs Texas A&M Analysis from The GoldSheet

We could test our “storm the field” theory here and see if Jimbo Fisher’s A&M team will come down from cloud nine after last week’s rousing upset over Alabama, complete with all of College Station rushing onto the pitch. Countering that ripe-for-a-letdown angle, however, is placing any trust in a Mizzou side that is close to going on a year between wins against the spread. The Tigers have been the anti-Georgia with their 129th-ranked total defense while allowing almost 38 points per game. What Jimbo found out last week is that he doesn’t need electric frosh QB Haynes King to ignite the offense, that with proper protection, sophomore Zach Calzada can do much of the same after passing for 285 yards and three touchdowns vs. Nick Saban’s defense. Meanwhile, Mike Elko’s stop unit not likely to let Tiger RB Tyler Badie run for 217 yards as North Texas did last week. While we have some fear of a letdown on the A&M side, we are more reluctant to back a team on a nine-game spread losing streak like Mizzou.

Missouri vs Texas A&M Betting Preview

After last week’s shocking upset over No. 1 Alabama, can Texas A&M avoid the letdown against Missouri? Kelly Stewart, Dave Cokin and Adam Trigger offer their Missouri vs Texas A&M betting preview.

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