UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Brady Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 7

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night and picks for September 7th with the main event headlined by Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Gilbert Burns vs Sean Brady: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 7	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Gilbert Burns +150 vs Sean Brady -190
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -125 / Under -105)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

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UFC Fight Night Predictions

Nathan Fletcher -140 vs Zygimantas Ramaska +110

These guys are coming off of The Ultimate Fighter, and even though they didn’t win, they put on good performances. Fletcher lost a close decision, and it turned out he broke his leg in that fight, and Ramaska put on the fight of the season against

Usmonov, but then he was pulled out of his semi-final fight because he wasn’t medically cleared. I think Ramaska’s striking is better, especially in the clinch, and I watched Fletcher make some mistakes with the grappling and ground game.

I didn’t get to see any of Ramaska’s ground game, but if he keeps it on the feet I think he can get the better of Fletcher. It’s not a fight I want to bet on, but Ramaska is the pick.

Andre Petroski -340 vs Dylan Budka +270

Budka fought on Contender Series against Chad Honekom, and Chad made it the most boring fight in Contender Series history (he later failed a drug test), and Dana White felt so bad for Budka that he gave him a chance in the UFC, and Budka was horrific.

He took Cesar Almeida down early in the fight, did nothing with it, tried to do the same in the second, but was so tired and bad that he got knocked out by Almeida. Bottom line: Budka is awful, and is not UFC caliber, and the one thing he does well…takedowns…is what Petroski can defend.

Petroski isn’t a great striker, his cardio is suspect, but he’s better everywhere than Budka. Petroski is a parlay piece, or you can wait til props come out and take him to win ITD as Budka probably doesn’t have the cardio to make it 3 rounds.

He’s fighting at 185, and Dana said he should probably be fighting at 170, and he’s actually fought at heavyweight before so I can’t bet on a guy who can’t even figure out what weight division he should be fighting in.

Jacqueline Amorim -325 vs Vanessa Demopoulos +260

I see the books are going to keep putting Demo at a big underdog, but we were on her in her last fight when she pulled the upset, and like we said back then, she has a style that the judges just love.

She’s active at all times whether on the feet or on the ground, she’s energetic at the end of the rounds, and those little things have gotten her two straight controversial wins.

However, I don’t think she gets the nod here. Demo’s win against Murata was a horrible decision, and her split win against Ducote wasn’t awful, but Amorim is a terror on the ground, and her control and submission attempts won’t let Demo score those little points she was able to score against Murata and Ducote.

Amorim lost her UFC debut to Sam Hughes, but she’s looked great in her next two fights getting finishes against Ruiz with ground and pound, and a first round arm bar against McKenna. Her cardio is solid so Demo won’t be able to tire her out, I think Demo’s luck runs out.

Gabriel Santos -230 vs Yizha +190

Santos started off his UFC career by losing to Lerone Murphy and David Onama, no shame in those losses, but he needs a win to stay out of the 3-losses in a row danger zone, and I think he does get the win.

Santos is a striker who can light up opponents on the feet, and he even has a decision win against Elves Brenner a few years ago, but he’s shown good skill on the ground with takedowns and submission attempts.

Against Onama, he almost had a couple of submissions in the first round, but I didn’t like how he gave up on position, searching for the submission, and while he’s an exciting striker, he got into some exchanges where he wasn’t protecting himself and he got caught with an uppercut that put him out.

He just gets a bit too excited, and it doesn’t work against UFC veterans who can be patient. However, his skills should overwhelm Yizha who is coming off his second run on Road To The UFC. He made it to the finals in the last season, but lost in the finale so he got right into the next season and was able to get the win.

He likes to get the fight to the ground, but I don’t think his wrestling game is that good, and I think he’s going to be a bit slow compared to Santos.

If Santos can show just a little bit of patience, I think he finds the opening on the feet and gets the KO as Yizha has a limited ceiling. Yizha is 27 years old and has 29 professional fights, but the level of competition just hasn’t been there.

Andre Lima -185 vs Felipe dos Santos +154

Winning because your opponent bit you, and beating Mitch Raposo are not reasons to make you a -185 favorite in the UFC. His leg kicks against Raposo looked good, but Raposo did nothing to stop them, and still Lima won a split decision.

His striking is pretty good, solid cardio, and he has good durability, but I think Dos Santos is going to surprise him.

Santos is going to have a big reach advantage here, and I thought his last win against Altamirano was really good as he got taken down a couple times, but quickly got up, he used his long legs to establish distance, was very active on the ground, and showed good cardio.

Lima will probably attack the lead leg like he did in the last fight, but I think Santos can counter with his long jabs and kicks.

My favorite way to play this fight is to take it to go the distance as I don’t think either guy will get knocked out, and I don’t see any submissions in this one either.

Isaac Dulgarian -1800 vs Brandon Marotte +1100

No writeup needed. Dulgarian will take Marotte down and destroy him on the ground. Dulgarian by KO is the only way you can play this one.

Ryan Spann -360 vs Ovince Saint Preux +285

I don’t know what we did as UFC fans to deserve this fight, but please don’t bet any of your money on it. OSP is 41 years old, and is coming off a shocking win against Kennedy Nzechukwu where Kennedy took him for granted, didn’t put him away and ended up rightfully losing the fight by split decision.

Make no mistake, OSP looked old and terrible, but he did have enough gas in the tank to go three rounds. I have no idea what happened to Ryan Spann.

He beat Reyes late in 2022, and he told all of us that he was training and taking his fighting career serious, and now he’s lost three in a row including losing a decision to old-man Anthony Smith, and then getting knocked out by Guskov who isn’t that good.

That being said, he’s more athletic, quicker and his strikes are more powerful. He’s going to look really fast on the feet compared to OSP, and he should piece him up as OSP won’t have much power to scare him. Spann should win, but there’s no way you can lay -360 on Ryan Spann.

Rongzhu -285 vs Chris Padilla +230

Rongzhu will be starting his second stint in the UFC as he went 1-2 in his first run, and he was probably too young at the time, but he’s 24 years old and has 30 fights to his name, and we saw him use his experience and patience to get the win on the Road To UFC finale against Haraguchi.

He controlled the pace, landed good shots, and finished it off with a rear naked choke win. His striking is very accurate, and he isn’t wild as he uses his strikes to just touch and piece up his opponent.

He has incredible cardio, and I’ll be interested to see what his game plan is against Padilla. Padilla got the win against Llontop in his debut, but I think Llontop is pretty bad as he got taken down with the same move several times in the first round before being submitted.

Padilla has some solid finishes on his resume, but his last two losses were fights that went the distance, and with Rongzhu’s cardio and patience, I see a grind-it-out type of victory with Rongzhu’s striking being too good for Padilla over three rounds. I don’t think we see a finish so Rongzhu by decision might be worth a play.

Trevor Peek -130 vs Yanal Ashmouz +110

I don’t really think either of these guys are very good as they just strike and brawl, which at times can be exciting, but both guys can have these big bursts of energy and strikes, and then they need to rest.

Both guys are tough, neither of them have been finished so while I expect this to be a pure striking match, I think it goes the distance and that’s how I’ll play it.

Neither guy is high volume with their strikes, and they don’t really set up their strikes or follow them up with much so I’m not sure if either guy will really land a big shot that KO’s or wobbles the other one. I don’t have a strong lean one way or the other on who wins so the over is how I’ll play it.

Alessandro Costa -535 vs Matt Schnell

Pretty easy handicap here as Schnell’s durability is gone, and he’s ripe to be knocked out here. He got knocked out by Erceg in his last fight, and before that he got knocked out against NIcolau, which is now a really bad look.

He beat Sumudaerji is one of the craziest fights ever, but Sumaderji had Schnell within seconds of being knocked out before he got the miraculous submission win, but it turned out Sumudaerji had a torn ACL going into that fight so it was a terrible look for Schnell. In his last 6 losses, 5 have been by KO, and it appears that his chin is all but gone at this point.

Costa has really good power, and all he has to do is not get taken down and submitted by Schnell, which he shouldn’t have any trouble with as he’s strong and athletic, and he should be able to stuff anything Schnell throws at him. Costa by KO in this one.

Steve Garcia -198 vs Kyle Nelson +164

I’ve bet Steve Garcia by KO in his last four fights, and I’ve won all four so I feel like I have to play it again. His power is insane, and his last eight wins have been by knockout, including a KO win against Chepe Mariscal in 2020, a KO win that has aged really well.

He can win by KO’ing guys on the feet, we’ve seen ground and pound and a body shot that took out Nuerdanieke.

This will be an interesting matchup against Nelson who has won three in a row, and he’s shown he can push guys against the fence and grind out wins, but he also is coming off a standing KO win against Algeo where he showed he can clip guys with his striking.

If I’m Nelson, I’m trying to close the distance and not stand at range, but trying to get inside will be dangerous for Nelson as he’ll have to avoid the big power from Garcia when he shoots in.

I think Nelson will eventually get caught with a big body shot followed by head shots that puts Nelson down giving Garcia his fifth KO win in a row.

Natalia Silva -298 vs Jessica Andrade +240

Andrade at +240 is very enticing, and it’s probably the only way to bet this fight as -300 is an insane price on Silva.

Silva has all the hype, and for good reason as she’s 5-0 in the UFC, and is coming off a win against Araujo, but I think this is big step up in competition, and Andrade is going to do some things that Silva hasn’t seen before.

Andrade will be moving forward constantly, and she’ll be throwing plenty of strikes while threatening the takedowns. Silva’s previous opponents haven’t been able to land or throw a lot of strikes because Silva normally strikes first, and he movement on the outside has been a real problem, but Andrade will be able to close the distance and get inside.

In Silva’s last fight, Araujo was able to clinch and control Silva on the fence, but she just didn’t do anything with it, and Andrade won’t stop the activity. Also, Silva’s durability hasn’t really been tested, and Andrade will try and make this a brawl like she did against Rodriguez, and if it’s a brawl, that’s where Andrade flourishes.

Silva has shown good takedown defense in the past so I don’t think Andrade will be able to get multiple takedowns, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is one takedown or some good moments where Andrade clinches and gets some nice strikes inside, and I also think Andrade is going to land some leg kicks that Silva hasn’t seen before.

In the end, I think Silva’s activity, movement and striking will edge out the rounds and get her the win, but the fight will be too close to lay -300. I do like this fight to go the distance as both fighters are tough, and I don’t see a KO or submission coming.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Gilbert Burns +150 vs Sean Brady -190

This is really a fade of Gilbert Burns as there are a lot of red flags on him. He’s 38 years old, and after he lost to Belal Muhammad he had to have pretty serious shoulder surgery so he had to take a year off, and he came back earlier this year and lost to Jack Della Maddalena.

He was up on the scorecards going into round 3, but eventually got knocked out in the third. He was able to win the first couple rounds with 5 takedowns, but he won’t be able to take Brady down with Brady’s elite wrestling.

Burns is near the end of his career, and his last 5 wins have been against guys 35+ years old, and Brady is in his prime.

The physicality will be too much for Burns, Brady should be able to control the pace and where this match takes place.

I expect Brady to wrestle Burns down and hold him on the ground and grind out rounds, and don’t be surprised if Burns fades like he did against JDM and gets finished late.

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