College Football Week 10 Preview, Picks and Predictions
Expert college football handicapper Ron Marmalefsky looks at the Week 10 slate before kickoff on Saturday November 2, 2024!
WagerTalk, the home of expert sports picks and the legendary GoldSheet, offers free college football best bets and free NCAAF picks daily, as well as premium expert NCAAF betting picks at amazing prices. And, don’t forget, at WagerTalk you can always find the NFL best bets today updated constantly.
Here are 1st looks at three under the radar important games across the NCAA landscape
Louisville at Clemson
Louisville is 3-2 in the ACC, but Clemson is 5-0, and one of four undefeated teams in the Conference. Clemson is on a six-game win streak, with all wins by at least 16 points. Louisville has a pair of seven-point losses to undefeated (in ACC play) Miami and SMU.
At 1st glance, Clemson should have an easy time, but the Cards ran a combined 54-297 (5.5 per carry) vs. these teams using my corrected for sacks formula, and scored a whopping 72 points.
The issue was on defense, where they allowed these same two teams to run 69-415 (6.0 per carry) and score 86 points.
Clemson has faced an easier slate of ACC opponents, but for the season, averages 6.05 per carry.
I expected regression defending the run, and it’s been even worse, as the Tigers have allowed an uncharacteristic (for them) 4.5 yards per carry.
Early Keys: Louisville must win the turnover battle. With Clemson +9 in this category, that could be a tall, but necessary task.
While Clemson is the deserved favorite, there’s a path to Louisville staying within the double-digit spread if Clemson can’t improve defending the rush.
My Wednesday Take: No opinion on the spread, as I have indicators pointing in both directions, but even with these teams putting up plenty of points, I would lean UNDER total of 63.5 points.
Pittsburgh at SMU
Staying in the ACC, both Pittsburgh and SMU are undefeated in Conference play. SMU has played the slightly tougher schedule.
Both teams are running well, and above my preseason expectations. Both teams have made adjustments, finding a go-to RB.
Both teams are also defending the run well, also above my preseason expectations. In addition, both teams are comparable in defending the pass, which they are also doing very well.
In a strange twist, both QB’s come into the game at less than 100%. Should either QB miss the game there would be a drop in performance in one specific area.
That area is yards-per-completion, which I believe would clearly suffer. SMU’s kicking game is decent, while Pittsburgh’s kicking game is near elite.
Early Keys: Not much separates these two teams. At full strength, Pittsburgh must do something to prevent the big play, something that has concerned me for years about the style of defense they play. SMU has been more turnover-prone. Their key is to improve in this area.
My Wednesday Take: If one team is without their starting QB then that would be an issue, and one that might not be overcome.
Other than that, I’m impressed that SMU was able to defeat Duke last week despite a -6 turnover ratio! As an aside, I also think that if healthy, SMU QB Jennings goes OVER his posted passing yards figure.
Texas A&M at South Carolina
A&M is shockingly alone at the top of the SEC as the league’s only remaining undefeated team. They have games coming up at Auburn and hosting Texas, so this game cannot be overlooked.
South Carolina is out of the SEC race but losses to LSU (36-33) and at Alabama (27-25) prove that on any given Saturday, this team is fully capable of pulling off an upset.
I like that South Carolina does a great job of defending the run, but this is a tough test, as A&M averages 5.5 per carry, with RB Moss leading the way.
What will be interesting is A&M’s QB rotation, as running QB Reed replaced QB Weigman last week and triggered the comeback vs. LSU.
Both QB’s have seen plenty of action this season. Weigman seems to have a higher ceiling in the pass game, but his floor is low due to some ill-advised decision-making.
Early Keys: A&M’s defense is fundamentally sound. South Carolina must find a way to run the ball more effectively in order to create more space for their pass game. A&M has only played one true road game (34-24 vs. lower tier SEC team Mississippi State).
How will they play in this environment?
My Wednesday Take: While the rush data favors A&M in about a 54% category, South Carolina has a favorable situation based on solid NCAA historical data that has a 60.5% spread success rate, with a sample size approaching 500. They are my lean and possible play at odds of +3 or more.
Love What You See? Sign Up for a Free WagerTalk Account!
Sign up to receive game-day updates, late breaking releases, free picks, best bets, exclusive betting features, pay per game and package access, contests, community networking, award-winning content and much more. Get your account today – it’s FREE!
Becoming a member of Wagertalk.com is 100% FREE with NO OBLIGATION or CREDIT CARD REQUIRED! Upon sign-up, you get instant access to our community and special offers and free picks. Sign up to WagerTalk now!
Grab the GoldSheet 2024-2025 Betting Guide
In a partnership with WagerTalk’s Ralph Michaels, the GoldSheet team has compiled a 60-page college football betting guide to help you prepare for the 2024-25 season.
Available free of charge, this preseason guide features our summer power ratings, projected point spreads and win probabilities for EVERY game of the upcoming season, plus coaching changes, quarterback transfers and much more.
WagerTalk Live Odds Screen CFB
WagerTalk’s live college football odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the run spreads, totals and betting percentages for all college football games.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
