Boca Raton Bowl Betting Preview | Western Kentucky vs James Madison Prediction

Western Kentucky vs James Madison Betting Preview

After starting out the season 7-2, Western Kentucky lost three of their last four games including the C-USA Championship. James Madison also closed the regular season flat, losing their last two games as these two close in the Boca Raton Bowl.

GoldSheet – The country’s longest-running sports betting newsletter – shares its thoughts on the matchup between the Hilltoppers and Dukes

Boca Raton Bowl Details: Western Kentucky vs James Madison

Date:	December 18, 2024
Time:	5:30 PM ET / 2:30 PM PT
Location:	FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, FL
TV:	ESPN
Spread & Total:	James Madison -7 | O/U 51.5

Boca Raton Bowl odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of 10:00am ET on Tuesday, December 17

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Boca Raton Bowl Betting Trends

Western Kentucky is coming off a blow-out loss in the Conference-USA Championship Game. The Hilltoppers are 1-5 against the number in their last six games.

Four of Western Kentucky’s five straight-up losses this season came away from home. James Madison also enters this contest on a downswing as the Dukes lost and failed to cover their final two games.

This will be JMU’s tenth-straight game installed as a favorite. Eight of the Dukes’ 12 games stayed under the total in the regular season.

The Boca Raton Bowl, established in 2014, has seen the favorite go 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 ATS all-time. Shockingly, only one of those ten games (2022) has been decided by less than 15 points.

Western Kentucky has won three-straight bowl games while JMU is in search of its first bowl win after losing to Air Force last season.

Boca Raton Bowl Analysis

Remember the disclaimer we laid out about the unpredictability of bowl season? No team personifies that quite like Western Kentucky.

Over the last 12 years, the Hilltoppers have been involved in some of the wildest bowl games in memory. Bettors still remember the 2014 Bahamas Bowl against Central Michigan.

The Hilltoppers were down 28-0 in last year’s Famous Toastery Bowl against Old Dominion before scoring a last-minute touchdown and winning the game in overtime.

A lot of that “wildness” is because head coach Tyson Helton allows his team to pursue transfer opportunities while still playing in the bowl game.

As of Monday, Western Kentucky has 21 players in the transfer portal, including starting QB Caden Veltkamp. Coach Helton confirmed that Veltkamp will play in this bowl game for the Hilltoppers, but who is going to join him?

Two starting offensive linemen and a starting receiver are also in the portal. Betting the under in a Western Kentucky bowl game is a recipe for disaster, but that’s the only way we can look in this contest.

The Hilltoppers’ offense was a mess at the end of the season: Seven points scored against Louisiana Tech; 21 points scored at Liberty; 19 points in a must-win game against Jacksonville State; then 12 points in the conference championship game.

Boca Raton Bowl Prediction

James Madison’s defense was top-25 in EPA per play allowed (both rushing and passing), passing success rate allowed, rushing success rate allowed and early-down success rate.

Dukes’ starting QB Alzona Barnett is out with an injury, and starting left tackle Jesse Ramil is in the transfer portal.

Eight of James Madison’s 12 games stayed under the total in the regular season. Western Kentucky doesn’t offer much on defense, but the Hilltoppers’ best unit is the secondary.

With JMU’s starting QB out, look for the Dukes to try and control this game on the ground and bleed the clock.

Boca Raton Bowl Prediction: Under 51.5

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