Waste Management Phoenix Open 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Waste Management Phoenix Open teeing off from TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, AZ! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Waste Management Phoenix Open starting on February 6th!

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Waste Management Phoenix Open	Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Notes
When:	February 6-9
Where:	TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, AZ
Defending Champ:	Nick Taylor
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+280 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, CBS

Waste Management Phoenix Open Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Waste Management Phoenix Open Betting Preview

Ah, the annual booze fest turned golf tournament that attracts the loudest and rowdiest frat boys and party animals from nearby ASU in what is the highest attended PGA Tour event of the year.  

Also adding to the fun of this week is that the final round finishes up just before the Super Bowl kicks off, so you will find several unique cross-sport parlay options between this event and the Super Bowl so make sure to peruse your sportsbook offerings this week.

Two years ago, this event was given Signature status, and while that’s not the case again this year, the field is still strong including world #1 Scottie Scheffler as he goes for his third win here in the last four years.

In addition, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tom Kim highlight several other big names in the field of 132 teeing it up this week at TPC Scottsdale. 

As this is also the first event being played on just one course over the last few weeks, finishing round one and two can be tricky with limited daylight before the cut is made to the Top-65 and ties for the weekend.

TPC Scottsdale plays as a par-71 measuring a little over 7,200 yards and is a true dessert setup with beautiful green grass fairways and greens, and the rest, dessert. 

There are very few trees around the course but there are plenty of water hazards, mainly on the back nine which features a great three-hole finishing stretch.  

Everyone knows the par-3 16th hole featuring its stadium atmosphere and beer guzzling visitors. If you can make it through that test, the 17th is a drivable par-4 with a water hazard coming into play just to the left of the green, followed by the par-4 18th which demands a precise tee shot over a hazard and between fairway bunkers on both sides.

New this year is the rough being allowed to grow from its standard 2-inch length to now 3.5 inches, putting the premium on hitting the fairway.

The course is a fair test as winning scores had fallen between -14 and -19 each of the last ten years until both Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman eclipsed that mark last year finishing at 21-under par for the week. With the rough height increased though, those numbers could fall back in line.

My favorite trend has been that all the recent winners have had at least one strong finish here.  Each of the last nine winners have finished T7 or better at this event in a previous start. 

There are only 23 players in the field this week that have had a finish of T7 or better here, which significantly shrinks the field when betting Outrights if you believe that trend to continue.

Finally, let’s hit on the weather. From May through October last year, the region continually saw record highs and temperatures over 100 degrees on the regular and at one point, went 159 days without measurable precipitation. 

But all that is in the past as the weather looks picture-perfect with temperatures hovering just above 70 degrees and winds light all four days.

Waste Management Phoenix Open Predictions

Winner: Sepp Straka +4500 (FanDuel) | Top-10 +360 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

Apparently Straka was under the weather last week but still finished T7 after holding the 36 and 54-hole lead at Pebble Beach. 

He of course won The American Express in his previous start two weeks prior to Pebble.  His approach play has been locked in averaging more than +1.15 SG over each of his last seven events which will play at any venue.

Straka is not long off the tee but is very accurate as he ranked 8^th in Driving Accuracy last season at just over 70%.  I’m weighting that a little more than usual this year as the rough has been allowed to grow at a taller clip which could make a couple of shots difference over four rounds.

Aside from that, Straka ranks 4^th in Total SG over the last three months and 7^th in SG Approach over the last six months. 

While his history here has not been good with only one made cut in three attempts, a 66^th place finish in 2022, he hasn’t played here each of the last two seasons and is clearly in the best form of his career, so hoping his current form trumps his track record.

Winner: Austin Eckroat +10000 (FanDuel) | Top-20 +280 (FanDuel or DraftKings)

You aren’t getting these odds without taking a little risk, and I believe Eckroat provides some longshot value this week.

Quietly, Eckroat ranks 13^th in Total SG over the last six months which he jumps to 6^th over the last three months.  He’s been below average Around the Greens, but otherwise is gaining strokes in all four other categories.

Eckroat started the season with a solid T15 at The Sentry before missing the cut in two straight events at the Sony Open and Farmers Insurance Open. 

He returned to form last week at Pebble Beach finishing T13.  Before that, a T17 at the RSM Classic and of course his win at the World Wide Technology Championship. So that’s four Top-20 finishes in his last six starts. Not a bad trend to follow for a guy getting +280 to do it again this week.

See you next week for the Genesis Invitational!

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