UFC 312: Du Plessis vs Strickland Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds February 8

UFC 312 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 312 picks and predictions for February 8th with the main event headlined by Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland in a Middleweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, NSW.

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Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland: UFC 312 Main Event

Saturday, February 8	UFC 312 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Dricus Du Plessis -205 vs Sean Strickland +180
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -185 / Under +145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, NSW
TV:	PPV

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UFC 312 Predictions

Hun Sung Park -250 vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel +205 

Park has won his first 2 UFC fights in the UFC, but the level of competition has been horrific. He does look UFC caliber though as his striking is ok, and he’s shown good skills on the ground with control and submissions, but he has a low ceiling.

Tumend  isn’t much better, he has good length that he uses well, but I just don’t think he has any upside, and Park should be a bit better everywhere. I think he gets the win, but the way  to bet this fight is to take the fight to not go the distance.

Road To UFC fighters have  been getting in brawls, and their offense is better than their defense so we’ve seen a lot of finishes. The under is the only thing I’m interested in betting in this one.

Kody Steele -238 vs Rongzhu +195 

Zhu’s second stint in the UFC didn’t get off to a great start as Padilla finished him in September, but he did have some success on the feet with his striking before the doctor stoppage for a swollen eye.

I think he’s going to give Steele some problems on the feet,  but the wrestling is where Steele has the big advantage.

Steele’s striking has worked against lesser quality opponents, but it’s something that he’s not great at so I think Zhu can touch him up, but eventually Steele will get the wrestling and takedowns going en route to the win.

It’s a steep price for a guy with only 7 fights making his UFC debut so I won’t be betting it, but Steele should get the decision win.

Quilan Salkilld -410 vs Anshul Jubli +320 

Jubli famously lost his last fight to Mike Breeden where Jubli was winning, and then Breeden started barking like a dog at him in the third, and Jubli froze up and got knocked out.

He’s a limited fighter from India, and the UFC wants Indian fighters in the  promotion to get the Indian audience, but if he was from Brazil or the US, he wouldn’t be in the UFC.

Salkilld has good striking, and kicks, and his weakness is the wrestling and  ground game, but Jubli won’t test that. Salkilld should win this with his striking, he’s a solid parlay piece on this card.

Kevin Jousset -245 vs Jonathan Micallef +200 

Jousset should handle this guy pretty easily on the feet as Micallef has pillow hand for  strikes, and while Micallef submitted his opponent on Contender Series, his opponent was awful, and Micalleff showed weaknesses with his control.

Jousset has a lot of  motivation to get back on the winning track after getting beat down by Bryan Battle, and  this is a match made in heaven for him.

Jousset can be low volume on the feet, but it  should be good enough to dominate Micallef. Jousset ML is the pick with a sprinkle on him to win by KO.

Alexsandre Topuria -410 vs Colby Thicknesse +320 

Neither of these guys have fought great competition, and they will be each others biggest test to date.

I see why Topuria is the big favorite here as he appears to be the more powerful fighter, but we really don’t know how good his cardio is if it gets out of the first round, and his 2 recent wins didn’t require him to do too much so we really haven’t seen the extent of his skills.

I would think the UFC would set up a fight for Topuria to win, so I would take him to win by KO, but I’ll have my live lines open and ready to fire on Thicknesse if I see Topuria start to get tired if he has an adrenalin dump i the first round.

Cong Wang -455 vs Bruna Brasil +350 

Sometimes a loss can be a good thing for an opponent, and I think Wang getting her  first loss as a pro last fight was a good thing.

She had a lot of hype, and for good reason, but she hadn’t faced the best competion, and getting submitted by Fernandes  was a humbling moment, but she’ll learn from it and get better.

Her striking is still really good, and I believe she’ll overwhelm Brasil on the feet with that striking.

Brasil is  coming a nice win against McCann where she brutalized the body of Molly, but she still couldn’t get the finish, which was concerning considering how easily she damaged McCann early on. I hate the price on Wang so even though I think she wins, I can’t bet on her or put it in parlays.

Viacheslav Borshchev -135 vs Tom Nolan +115 

Both these guys are terrible wrestlers and grapplers so this should be a strikers delight. Nolan is raw as a fighter, and you can see him getting a bit better, but his lack of striking defense is glaring.

He finally went the distance in his last fight to show his cardio is  good, but he didn’t look amazing against a pretty weak opponent in Alex Reyes. 

Borshchev struggles against wrestlers, but does fine against strikers, and I think he’s just more comfortable with his game.

He leaves himself open as well though so both guys should be able to find success with the striking, but in the end I think the  experience will be the difference, I’ll take Borshchev to get the win.

Gabriel Santos -245 vs Jack Jenkins +200 

Jenkins has really good leg kicks, his fight IQ is through the roof, and he’s a tough  fighter, but I think we’ve seen his upside, and there’s not much more improving he can do.

He’s going to be much smaller here which makes it tough for him to strike, and  Santos will be able to use those long legs to throw kicks up the middle and keep the  distance between them.

I also think Santos’s ground game is a bit better as he showed  how good he can be in top position in his last fight.

Jenkins’s last 2 wins were against Herbert Burns, who is probably the worst fighter UFC has had the last few years, and  then a decision win against Emmers that even he was surprised he won. Santos’s length will be too much for Jenkins to overcome, Santos is the pick.

Jake Matthews -218 vs Francisco Prado +180 

Matthews is coming off a good win against Phil Rowe, but he tends to make some  bonehead decisions in his fights, and Rowe was fighting pretty lazily, and didn’t take  advantage of his mistakes.

Matthews can stand and strike, and he can also wrestle if  the opportunity presents itself, but he should have plenty of success striking Prado. 

Prado just stands and strikes, and he’s lost 2 of his 3 UFC fights because of his lack of striking defnese as Mullarkey and Zellhuber were able to just tee off on him.

His win came against Azaitar who just goes for broke in his fights, and he’s going to need to turn  this into a firefight, otherwise he’s going to get picked apart from distance.

Matthews  should win this one, but he makes too many mistakes for my liking so I won’t be betting  on him.

Prado and Matthews are tough guys, and they both aren’t big KO guys so I do like this fight to go the distance, that would be the only way I would play this one.

Rodolfo Bellato -170 vs Jimmy Crute +140 

Jimmy Crute hasn’t fought since July of 2023, and he hasn’t won since 2020 so I really  don’t know what’s going on here. Crute was on a podcast where he said that he’s too good to not be fighting, and he was supposed to fight Prachnio, but he backed out and  is now fighting Bellato.

He says he’s happier, he switched religions, and he has a new  outlook so he’s ready to take fighting 100%. I guess I just don’t believe in him being a  great fighter. His striking isn’t great, and Alonso Menifield was out wrestling him the last time we saw him.

Bellato isn’t great, but he knocked out Potieria in his UFC debut after  weathering an early storm, and he is hittable on the feet, but is Crute the guy to exploit that? I don’t see it.

That being said, I love the under in this fight. A guy off a long layoff who was finished in his last fight versus a guy with bad striking defense, but KO power  on the feet sets up perfect for an under play. Under 2.5 is my play for this one.

Tallison Texeira -155 vs Justin Tafa +130 

If Texeira has fixed his striking defense, he’s going to beat Tafa, but in his Contender Series fight he got into some big exchanges where his opponent was landing, and Tafa can put his lights out if he lands clean. However, Texeira can do the same thing here so  I don’t expect this fight to last long.

Tafa is a one trick pony as he needs to KO his  opponent early, and if he doesn’t get it done early, he’s in trouble.

Whoever you like to win this fight, take him to win by KO for some extra value. My pick for this fight is under 1.5, and even fight to end in round 1.

This fight is more of a coin flip the more I watch film on Texeira, and how open he leaves his chin so it’s dog or pass as far as who wins this.

Weili Zhang -110 vs Tatiana Suarez -110 

We’ve made a lot of money on Weili in her last few fights and I think we’ll do it again  here. She’s only lost to Rose Namajunas in the UFC, and since those back to back  losses she’s elevated her game to the next level as she’s ripped off 4 straight wins  against Jedrzejczyk, Esparza, Lemos and Yan.

Her wrestling has been dominant, and  her striking has been on point, and add to that her 5 round non-stop cardio and it’s  going to take a special performance from Suarez to beat her.

Weili faced Yan last April, and I thought that would be Weili’s toughest match since Namajunas, but Weili  dominated from the start, and was within seconds of getting the choke submission at  the end of the first en route to a dominant 49-45 unanimous decision.

I don’t see any  weaknesses in her game right now, and I see her with a big advantage in striking  against Suarez, and I actually think her wrestling is as good, if not better than Suarez’s. 

Suarez has had a career full of injuries, and she had a 3 year absence before coming  back and beating Montana De La Rosa, and Jessica Andrade, but Rosa is 4-5 in the UFC, and Andrade was taking every fight offered to her at that time to pay for her divorce, and I just didn’t think Suarez looked like she was on Weili’s level.

Suarez’s path to victory is a submission on the ground in my opinion, and I don’t see Weili letting  that happen. Zhang is the pick for me.

UFC 312 Main Event: Driscus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland

I know it’s the main event, but I really don’t have a strong opinion on this fight, and I  don’t think there’s a great way to bet this fight except to take it to go the distance. 

Strickland likes to box on the feet, but even says that he doesn’t have KO power. Driscus can get finishes, but Strickland has such good defense on the feet with striking and takedown defense that it literally takes Alex Pereira to finish him.

Driscus has to  manage his cardio as he can fall off the longer the fight goes so everything sets up for  this fight to make it to the judges.

As far as a winner, these 2 fought to a split decision  so I think it’s Strickland at +180 or nothing as far as the outright winner goes. Outside of the fight to go the distance, I won’t bet this one, I’ll just sit back and watch as a fan.

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