UFC Fight Night: Kape vs Almabayev Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 1

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for March 1 with the main event headlined by Manel Cape vs Asu Almabayev in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV.

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Manel Cape vs Asu Almabayev: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 1	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Manel Kape -210 vs Asu Almabayev +175
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Chepe Mariscal -395 vs Ricardo Ramons +310

I haven’t been that impressed with Chepe in the UFC, and this price is crazy to me. He’s 4-0 in the UFC, but one of his wins is because Jenkins broke his arm, another win is against Charriere when most (including myself thought he lost), and then a win over an old Daman Jackson.

He’s a tough fighter who likes to clinch, grapple and make fights ugly, but I don’t think he has much upside, and Ramos is going to be a problem for him.

Ramos can make some really dumb decisions in fights, which has cost him wins in the past, but when he’s one point, he’s good.

He has good striking, and he can grapple on the ground so he has the tools to give Chepe fits. No chance I would play Chepe at this price, don’t be surprised if this is a really close fight in the 3rd round, and Ramos squeaks out a close decision win.

John Castenada -238 vs Douglas Silva de Andrade +195

Andrade is 39 yeqars old, and whil he still has gas left in the tank, I don’t think it’s enough to get the win here. In his last fight, he seemed to slow down and get sloppy at the end of the second and into the third.

His striking isn’t great these days, and he doesn’t have the wrestling to give Castenada problems so I’m struggling to see a confident path to victory for him.

I think Castenada is just going to be a bit better on the feet and if he wants to wrestle, I think he’ll be a bit better there as well. Both guys are durable, I think this goes the distance so taking overs or Castenada by decision is the play in this one.

Ramazonbek Temirov -125 vs Charles Johnson +105

Interesting fight here as we really haven’t seen Temirov in rounds 2 and 3 as his last 5 fights have ended in the first round.

He has incredible power, but he swings very wild. Give him credit because he only needs to land one time to turn the lights out, but he leaves himself wide open to counters.

His style has worked against lesser competition, but I think Charles Johnson will be able to avoid the early knockout, and take him into deeper waters.

Johnson has won 4 in a row, and he’s used striking and ground game in these fights to get the wins. He has great energy and cardio so I think he’ll be able to use that to his advantage if he gets it past the first round.

Temirov has the big power advantage, but I think Johnson is more well-rounded over 3 rounds. He’ll be the pick.

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JJ Aldrich -192 vs Andrea Lee +160

I don’t know what happened to Andrea Lee. She had some nice wins on her resume, but she’s dropped 5 in a row, some of the losses to really good opponents, but losing to De La Rosa in her last fight was a terrible look.

She’s 2-8 in her last 10 and needs to win or she’s probably looking at getting cut. I think she has decent striking, and a decent ground game, but she just can’t seem to put it all together to win multiple rounds.

The volume of strikes isn’t there, the striking defense isn’t there, and she’s always fighting off her back foot instead of walking forward.

Aldrich is coming off a nice win against Hardy, and she showed good wrestling and clinch in that fight, and she should be able to do the same thing against Lee. I see Aldrich having better control time and better moments in the clinch, I think she takes the decision win.

Danny Silva -192 vs Lucas Almeida +160

Silva had a war in his UFC debut with Culibao, and he got the win, but there were some holes in his game.

He’s hittable, and doesn’t show a lot of great head movement, but he’s gotten away with it as he’s durable, and his striking is powerful enough to keep opponents on their toes.

He doesn’t throw a ton of volume, and if he doesn’t have big moments of sitting guys down off of strikes, I think he can struggle to impress the judges.

Almeida lost 2 in a row before getting the win against Cuamba in his last fight, and I thought it was a nice showcase of what he can do on the feet.

His volume and accuracy looked great, and he did visible damage to Cuamba who has a solid striking background. I’ll take Almeida to get the win as volume should overcome the power of Silva.

Luana Carolina -142 vs Montan de La Rosa +120

Carolina has won 3 in a row, but not against great competition, and even though Rosa isn’t a world-beater, I think she has the tools to get the upset here. Carolina has long arms and legs, but doesn’t use them enough for my liking.

When she lands, it’s effective, I just wish she would throw more. I also think Rosa has the advantage with takedowns and ground game as Carolina was taken down and controlled by Pudilova at the end of the third round.

Look for Rosa to just be more physical, and as long as she doesn’t stand at distance and let Carolina land with those long arms and legs, she should muddy up the fight and get the win.

Mario Pinto -375 vs Austen Lane +300

Pinto has deceiving power that was on display on his Contender Series win as he landed a clean jab that knocked his opponent out, and it didn’t look that powerful, but he’s accurate and sneaky powerful.

He has good cardio as he’s fought in a 5 round fight, and he looked good in it, but I don’t think this fight lasts too long.

Outside of wrestling Despaigne for all 3 rounds, Lane’s fights typically end quick as he’s a powerful striker with bad defense so it’s kill or be killed for him.

I think Lane is sloppy, and I don’t trust him to stay out of harms way, especially because Pinto is a much better wrestler than Despaigne so Lane can’t use that path to victory.

Pinto should find the opening and get the KO win, but just to be careful take the fight to not go the distance in case Lane lands a hail mary strike.

Estevan Ribovics -250 vs Nasrat Haqparast +205

I haven’t been a Ribovics fan, but his win against Zellhuber was impressive. His movement was great, he maintained great distance control against the longer fighter, and even though he was getting hit, he walked through the strikes to land his own.

His energy and cardio was equally impressive as he just wore down Zellhuber and poured it on in the 3rd.

Haqparast has tons of trouble making weight, and we’ve done well betting on him as he’s won 4 straight, but if Ribovics fights like he did last time, he’ll out volume and out work Haqparast.

I don’t expect takedowns in this fight, look for Ribovic to be too much for Haqparast in a decision win.

Danny Barlow -298 vs Sam Patterson +240

I’m pretty surprised at the price on Barlow here as he has big time power, but Patterson has a big advantage with grappling and submissions.

Patterson is tall, and his striking defense isn’t great, but it’s improving. After getting knocked out in his UFC debt, he’s done a nice job not getting in his next 2 fights, and he’s been able to take down and submit guys who struggle on the ground, and I think he’ll waste no time trying to get Barlow to the ground.

If he does, he’s live for a submission win. If it stays on the feet, it’s Barlow’s big advantage. I haven’t seen much of Barlow’s wrestling or takedown defense so I’ll take a sprinkle on Patterson as this plus money.

William Gomis -218 vs Hyder Amil +198

Gomis has improved so much over his UFC fights, and he’s become a really difficult matchup as he has an odd stance, and his strikes come from different angles, but against Brito he showed he could hang in the clinch and ground game as well.

The damage he did to Brito really showed his improvement in the power of his striking, but he still needs to throw some more strikes to take the next step.

He’ll get his chance against Amil who pushes forward constantly, and loves turning fights into brawls, and it’s worked as he’s 10-0.

Gomis is going to be much more difficult to KO than his first 2 UFC opponents, and I think Amil is going to have a hard time getting Gomis to stand and trade back and forth like Amil likes.

Whoever controls the pace of the fight will win, and I think Gomis will be slightly better at that. Gomis by decision in this one.

Julian Marquez -162 vs Cody Brundage +136

I can’t believe Brundage is in a co-main. He’s gotten bailed out on numerous fights when he was losing by getting a win when Malkoun got DQ’d, and he was getting beat up by Alhassan in his last fight when the fight got ruled a no contest.

He wants to get the fight to the ground, and as bad as he is, this is actually a great matchup for him. Marquez comes flying and is looking for violence, but he’s gotten KO’d in 3 straight fights so his durability is gone, and his only wins in the UFC are against guys who are no longer in the organization.

Marquez is going to try and land the early kill shot on Brundage, and he could absolutely knock out Brundage, but if he doesn’t, Brundage will get this to the ground and work his ground game.

Marquez has a couple submission wins, but he got the submissions after knocking them down to the ground with his strikes and grabbing the neck. I can’t bet on Marquez with how chiny he is, Brundage is the pick, but I won’t be betting this.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Manel Cape vs Asu Almabayev

I thought Kape looked great in December when he knocked out Bruno Silva in the 3rd, and it was a reminder how deadly his striking can be.

His only blemish recently is losing to Mokaev who just grappled him all 3 rounds, but Almabaev doesn’t fight like that.

Almabaev does have a good ground game, but I don’t think it’s going to be good enough over 5 rounds. The striking and movement of Kape is just too good, and I don’t see Almabaev avoiding the big shots for the entire fight.

The -245 line might make you a bit nervous as Kape can be a head case, but he’s just in a tier above Almabaev. He’s a good parlay piece.

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