PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Arnold Palmer Invitational teeing off from Bay Hill Golf Club in Bay Hill, Florida! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Arnold Palmer Invitational starting on March 6!

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Arnold Palmer Invitational	Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Notes
When:	March 6 – 9
Where:	Bay Hill Golf Club in Bay Hill, Florida
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+320 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

This 2^nd week of the Florida Swing marks the 4th Signature Event of the season and the second with a cut as the field of 72 will be trimmed to the Top-50, or those within ten shots, after 36 holes.

Arnold’s signature course presents a tough challenge to the players every year and although three of the last six editions have seen the winner reach double-digits under par, only a total of six players have reached at least 10-under in those six years.

Last year, Scheffler ran away with the event at 15-under, but Wyndham Clark was the only other player to reach the threshold, and he finished exactly on it, at 10-under.

The course can stretch to nearly 7,500 yards playing to a stock par-72. The rough has been allowed to grow out to four inches this year, up from its standard test of three inches.

Greens are set to run at 13.5 on the stimp, which is extremely fast so being able to control approach shots is paramount and to do that, finding the fairway is a must.

The issue is that fairways around Bay Hill are narrow making finding them more difficult than most tracks as the course routinely ranks in the Top-10 hardest to find the fairway (54%).

That in turn has a major effect on finding the greens, also ranking in the Top-10 difficulty in greens in regulation at (58%). It’s no wonder then, that the course has averaged over par in now eight straight years.

Because of its length, players will face more than the average number of approach shots from 175 yards or more, so both driving and long iron play will be the other important statistics to look at this week.

Those skillsets are even more obvious when you look at past winners here that include McIlroy, Scheffler, DeChambeau and of course, the goat, Tiger Woods.

Finally, experience has proven important at Bay Hill as seven of the last eight winners have finished inside the Top-15 in a previous edition of the tournament.

At this point, Mother Nature is forecasted to have its first noticeable effect on a tournament this season. Winds are forecasted to be up for Thursday’s first round in the 15-20 mph range, before quieting back down again on Friday and Saturday.

But the wind returns for Sunday’s finale at a possibly even higher clip which will certainly make for an exciting finish that could also include some rain.

One note on the timing of the weather is that thunderstorms are forecasted on Wednesday evening which will likely make Thursday AM-Friday PM the ideal tee time wave this week.

Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions

Winner: Xander Schauffele +2000 | Top-10 +175 | Top-20 -140

Aside from putting Scottie or Rory in here, which you could certainly do, I don’t think you needed me to tell you that. Instead, I’ll go slightly down the list to Xander.

Let me be clear, I do have concern about his absence since The Sentry, which has been due to a rib injury, but this one is all about the number as it’s been quite a while since we have since Xander getting 20-1, especially in a limited field.

Xander remains the active Tour leader in cuts made at 57, ten more than Scottie’s 47, with 3^rd on the list being Morikawa at just 20, showing his consistency for a long period of time.

In fact, since last February, Xander had finished inside the Top-25 in 18 straight events, including two major wins, before what seemed like an inexplicable T41 at the ZOZO in October and a T30 at The Sentry in January. But perhaps it all makes sense now with his injury.

While I do think he could show some competitive rust this week, much like we saw from Scottie in his first three events back from injury, he is plenty good enough to compete here and make a run on Sunday, in which case, we won’t see 20-1 again until another injury.

Winner: Sepp Straka +7000 | Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +190

Another “full honesty” disclaimer, I don’t think Sepp wins this tournament, as I think we have only about five guys with a legitimate chance, but Sepp has as good of a chance as anyone to hit the first or second page of the leaderboard.

Staka played well last week to kick off the Florida Swing, finishing T11 at the Cognizant Classic. That marked his 6^th Top-15 finish in his last eight starts including a win at The American Express in January.

His iron game is up there with the top players in the world, and although he doesn’t hit it long off the tee, his driver accuracy keeps him gaining strokes Off the Tee. That accuracy could gain him a few more strokes this week given the extending rough length.

The only negative is that his history at this event is simply not good. Four MCs in five tries and his lone weekend finishing T57.

But hey, current form can trump all of that, just look at Shane Lowry last year. He led or co-led after each of the first three rounds, ultimately finishing T3. He too had missed the cut in this event in four of five starts with his best finish even worse, at 67.

See you next week for the THE PLAYERS Championship!

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