UFC 313: Pereira vs Ankalaev Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 8

UFC 313 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 313 picks and predictions for March 8 with the main event headlined by Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev in a Light Heavyweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV.

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Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev: UFC 313 Main Event

Saturday, March 5	UFC 313 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Alex Pereira -115 vs Magomed Ankalaev -105
Rounds:	2.5 Rounds (Over -165 / Under +130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

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UFC 313 Predictions

Joshua Van -198 vs Rei Tsurya +164 

Tsurya will try and get this to the ground, and this fight really comes down to if Van can keep it on the feet. If he can, he’ll dominate this fight.

Tsurya’s striking is pretty bad, but  to be honest I don’t think his wrestling and ground game that great. He won his UFC debut against Hernandez, but Hernandez won the third round by taking Tsurya down  and holding him there, and it sure looked like Tsurya ran out of gas.

I think Van will win  this one, and don’t forget his last fight was against Durden, another guy who wants to get takedowns, and Van was prepared and after round 1 didn’t get taken down, and really tuned up Durden on the feet. I think Durden is better than Tsurya so this is an easy pick for me. Van should win.

Curtis Blaydes -290 vs Rizvan Kuniev +235 

Kuniev got busted for steroids in PFL, and then got a fight on Contender Series where he beat a really bad opponent so it’s hard to figure out where he’s at, and what he can  do well.

He likes to clinch, and hold guys against the fence, and I’m not sure that’s going to work with Blaydes who is a solid wrestler with good power, and when you look  at his losses, they’re to power punchers on the feet, and I don’t think Kuniev is that guy. 

There are too many unknowns with Kuniev for me so I won’t bet this fight, but I lean Blaydes by decision.

Mairon Santos -380 vs Francis Marshall +300 

I thought Marshall had the potential to be good in the UFC, but it just hasn’t happened.  His striking isn’t there, he can wrestle a bit, but doesn’t do much with it when he gets  guys to the ground, and he’s just slow and tentative, even in his win against Buzukja (who is awful, 1-4 in the UFC).

Santos isn’t a lot better, but his striking is good, and I  think he’ll do more on offense than Marshall will. His only pro loss is to Dan Argueta when they were both in LFA, but he rolled through TUF, and knocked out Ofli in his debut.

Santos is the play, but wow this price is steep. Santos by decision would be a  way to lower the juice, that would be the play.

Carlos Leal Miranda -800 vs Ale Morono +550 

Carlos Leal is going to kill Morono, who looks like his UFC career is quickly coming to an end. His only recent wins are to old guys in Tim Means and Court McGee, and he just doesn’t have the power or cardio to compete anymore, and losing 2 in a row to  Daniel Rodriguez and Niko Price is a horrible look.

Leal finally made it to UFC, and had a nightmare short notice debut when he took on Fakhretdinov. Even though he lost, he put on a quality performance, and we were excited to bet on him in his next fight, and  UFC is giving him a nice “thank you fight” for taking that short notice fight. His striking is better, his cardio is better, Leal will steamroll Morono in this one.

Djorden Santos -198 vs Ozzy Diaz +164 

I’m cautious about betting on Contender Series guys making their UFC debut, but I really like Santos in this one.

Ozzy Diaz came from LFA and had a couple of nice wins, but he got KO’d in the first round of his UFC debut, and go back to Contender Series a couple of seasons ago where Joe Pyfer knocked him out early.

He’s hittable, and I don’t  think his cardio is great and Santos should take advantage. Santos was a +300  underdog on Contender Series, and won easily showing really good durability, takedown defense and cardio.

If Diaz doesn’t get the early finish, I think Santos wears him down and gets the finish late, and that will be the pick. Santos by finish in the 2nd or 3rd.

Armen Petrosyan -155 vs Brunno Ferreira +130 

Power puncher vs volume striker. Pretty simple analysis…if Ferreira can land the big  counter shot, he’ll get the KO.

If not, Petrosyan will just piece him up for 3 rounds with his kickboxing. Neither guy has good skills on the ground so I don’t expect this to get to  the ground, and we just watched Petrosyan get knocked out in his last fight, but it was a crazy double spinning backfist that we’ve never seen before so I don’t really think he has durability issues.

Ferreira is dependent on landing the big shot, and while he does have serious power, he also gets tired. I’ll take Petrosyan to win, but the way to bet this is to live bet it. If it gets out of the first, take Petrosyan as Ferreira will tire down the stretch.

Ignacio Bahamondes -120 vs Jalin Turner +100 

It’s all about the fight IQ for Turner, or lack thereof. He has all the tools to be a  Champion, and yet he’s lost 3 out of 4. He lost 2 split decisions, one to Gamrot, and  one to Hooker where he was winning and he let Hooker back in the fight to steal the  split.

Then he hit Moicano so hard, that Moicano fell over and instead of finishing him, Turner turns around and starts to celebrate, and Moicano recovers and then finishes Turner the next round.

He’s super athletic, his strikes are dynamic, and he has a good  wrestling/ground game, but he just can’t seem to put it together.

Bahamondes is long  and rangy with his strikes, and since he got overwhelmed by Klein, he’s won 2 straight both by sick first round finishes and I think that loss to Klein may have been a good  thing for him as his aggression has improved.

His long legs and arms are really tough  to get inside so I’ll be interested to see if Turner wants to strike with him or try and shoot  and wrestle.

This should be a great fight, nothing would surprise me, but I just can’t put my money on Jalin Turner as I’ve watched him lose fights he should have won. I won’t be betting it, but Bahamondes is the pick.

Mauricio Ruffy -500 vs King Green +380 

This will be a strikers delight as neither of these guys will be attempting takedowns, and this is big step up for Ruffy in my opinion. His striking is great, but his last 3 wins are  over Mullarkey, Ferguson and LIontop who have combined for 5 straight losses.

In Ruffy’s last fight, it was clear he wanted to go the distance to work on his cardio as all his fights have been early finishes so he was cautious and patient as he dissected Llontop, but I don’t know if he’s going to be able to do that here.

Green has an awkward  stance, and strikes that come from weird angles, but he’s 38 and he’s lost 2 out of 3, and his wins have been against an old Jim Miller, and a one shot KO of Grant Dawson that was out of nowhere.

He lost to Pimblett by submission, but the problem lies in that  he’s been knocked out by Jalin Turner and Drew Dober so when he’s fought power  punchers, he’s been flatlined.

Ruffy has a ton of potential, but I’m not sure if he’s -500 material over a veteran like Green. Ruffy is probably going to be one of the most popular picks on this card, but I’ll be cautious and stay away from betting this fight.

Iasmin Lucindo -130 vs Amanda Lemos +110 

This should be a great fight between a veteran who still has power and skills against a 23 year old phenom who fights like a veteran.

Lucindo can strike with anyone, and in  her last fight she was able to get takedowns against Rodriguez, and grind out solid  control time and some decent ground strikes.

Lemos lost her last fight to Jandiroba, but Jandiroba is all wrestling and grappling, and while Lucindo can do those, it’s not at Jandiroba’s level.

Lemos still has her power at age 37 as she really damaged up Dern  2 fights ago brutally on the feet, and she’s no slouch on the ground herself.

I think Lemos’s striking is going to surprise Lucindo, and it will take her a bit to get used to the power and speed, and she could get hit harder than she’s been hit before as Lemos is the best striker she’s faced.

We’ve done well in predicting Lucindo fights, I think this might be just a bit too much for her. She barely won a split decision over Rodriguez in her last fight, and I like Lemos a lot more than Rodriguez. We’ll take Lemos in this one.

Rafael Fiziev -130 vs Justin Gaetje +110 

The first fight showed off Gaetje’s striking, and Fiziev really didn’t have an answer.  Fiziev had some good shots to the body, but Gaetje was able to stay out of harms way, and he won all the big exchanges, and did noticable damage to Fiziev’s face.

Since  that fight, Fiziiev hurt his foot against Gamrot, and Gaetje beat Poirier and got KO’d in  the insane Holloway fight.

I think Fiziev will make some adjustments, but I’m not sure  what the adjustments are. Takedowns? Better striking? Better defense? I just don’t really see it with Fiiziev, and I think he has really limited upside.

I do worry about where  Gaetje is at now after that Holloway fight, but his recnt losses have only come to  Holloway, Oliveira, and Khabib, and Fiziev is nowhere near those guys.

I’ll have faith that Gaetje is still the same fighter, and to repeat his performance over Fiziev from the  first fight. Gaetje at plus money is the play.

UFC 313 Main Event: Alex Pereira vs Magomed Ankalaev

I’ve made a lot of money betting on Alex Pereira, but I’m staying away from this fight.  Pereira has a ton of power, we know that. He can knock anyone out, we know that.

But Ankalaev should have success with the wrestling in this one, and when you look at who  Alex has been beating, it’s been strikers.

The strikers like Hill, Jiri, and Rountree let Pereira get into his rhythm, and he could strike when he found his opening when he got  into the groove of the fight.

Ankalaev’s wrestling and takedowns will not only wear Pereira down, but I believe it will disrupt his rhythm, and not let him get into a good flow to land the big kill shot.

Also, this is Pereira’s 7th fight in 2 years, and that’s a lot of  training, fights, weight cuts and just overall wear and tear.

It only takes one shot from Pereira to connect, and the fights over, but I’m not going to be surprised if Ankalaev pulls the upset so I will exercise caution and not bet on this fight. Lean is Ankalaev, but none of my money will be bet on the fight.

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