PGA Valspar Championship 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on the Valspar Championship teeing off from Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) in Palm Harbor, FL! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding the Valspar Championship starting on March 20th!

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Valspar Championship	Valspar Championship Betting Notes
When:	March 20-23
Where:	Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) – Palm Harbor, FL
Defending Champ:	Peter Malnati
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+500 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

Valspar Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

The next three weeks represent a light schedule with no Signature Events until next month’s Masters Tournament. While the purses and fields will loosen accordingly, this week’s stop, the final leg of the Florida Swing, still has a solid field including 15 of the Top-50 in the OWGR.

That list includes co-betting favorites’ Tommy Fleetwood, still in search for his first PGA Tour win and Xander Schauffele, the Tour’s leader in consecutive cuts made, but still working his way back from injury, both listed at 14-1.

Those are both good reasons to stay away from the favorites this week and look to the other 154 entrants (field of 156).

The Copperhead Course is a difficult one to say the least. Last year’s winning score was 12-under, which was only the fourth time in the last 11 years in which the winning score was lower than 10-under.

The last two years, the course ranked as the hardest of the Florida Swing with the field averaging nearly one stroke over par in 2023 (71.93) and a half-stroke last year (71.41).

Copperhead is a par-71 with five par 3s to go along with the traditional four par 5s and measures 7,350 yards.

What makes the course tricky is that driving distance tends to be negated as the fairways are tree-lined with chokepoints further up the fairway. That makes laying back the more ideal choice. Rough will also be up like the last couple of tournaments, starting the week at 3.5 inches.

For those reasons, roughly 50% of approach shots will be coming from 175 yards or more putting a premium on long iron play, and probably a big reason why scoring tends to be higher here than a wedge-fest track. That, and the Snake Pit.

The par 4-3-4 finishing stretch known as the Snake Pit is as tough of a 3-hole stretch as it gets. Two years ago, the field averaged +0.59 strokes over par, while last year it played slightly easier at +0.41.

Finally, we won’t see the same high winds we saw last week at THE PLAYERS, but Thursday’s opening round is forecasted at 10-20 mph, reaching its peak in the afternoon, before gradually dying down over the next three days.

That will could give the Thursday AM-Friday PM wave the slightest of advantages. Temperatures will be high-60s to mid-70s all week and rain is not expected.

Valspar Championship Predictions

Winner: Sepp Straka +2500 | Top-10 +260 | Top-20 +125

Third straight week Straka has made the list, the only difference this week is now his odds have dropped into ‘Favorite’ status.

Yet another great tournament last week at THE PLAYERS finishing T14. Prior to that, a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and a T11 at the Cognizant Classic.

He is going for the perfect sweep on finishing inside the Top-20 at each event during the Florida Swing. Further, that is now eight Top-15 finishes in his last ten starts including a win at The American Express in January.

His iron game is up there with the top players in the world, and although he doesn’t hit it long, his driver accuracy keeps him gaining strokes Off the Tee. That accuracy could gain him a few more strokes given the tree-lined fairways and once again, deep rough.

Finally, while this is only Straka’s third start here with a MC last year and a T46 in 2019, he is a much different golfer now than he was even a year ago.

Winner: Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson +10000 | Top-10 +750 | Top-20 +330

Though it wasn’t against PGA Tour competition, Rasmus did have three wins in 2024 on the Challenge Tour, the 2nd-tier Tour in Europe, equivalent to the Korn Ferry Tour here in the states. Still, three wins is three wins and evidence of a high ceiling.

As he graduated to the DP World Tour in September, all he has done is finish inside the Top-20 in seven of 12 starts including four Top-10s. He is also coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Qatar Masters (DP World Tour) and two weeks ago at the Puerto Rico Open in his PGA Tour debut.

That finish earned him a start this week and his potential is worth jumping on. One more strong finish from him on this Tour and we won’t see these odds again anytime soon.

See you next week for the Texas Children’s Houston Open!

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