UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Erceg Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds March 29

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for March 29 with the main event headlined by Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg in a flyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico.

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Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, March 29	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Brandon Moreno -235 vs Steve Erceg +190
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -240 / Under +180)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT
Arena:	Mexico City Arena, Mexico City, Mexico
TV:	ESPN2

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Marquel Mederos -192 vs Austin Hubbard +160

I’ll be taking overs in this fight as both guys aren’t very exciting to me. Mederos had a nice finish on CS, and he’s had some good finishes on the regional scenes, but he made his debut against Quinones, and it was a snoozefest with a lot of clinch against the fence, and not a lot of damage.

I don’t have high hopes for Hubbard to make this exciting as his last 2 UFC fights have gone the distance, and even though he damaged up Hernandez on the feet pretty good, everyone damages up Hernandez and Hubbard still lost the fight.

Neither guy has amazing submissions, and their striking is meh, and I do trust their cardio so everything sets up for a fight to go the distance. No opinion on the outright winner, but I’m certainly not laying -192 on Mederos.

Jamal Emmers -218 vs Gabriel Miranda +180

I love this spot for Emmers coming off a loss. He’s lost 2 out of 3, but the Jenkins loss was a bad decision, and getting KO’d by Landwehr isn’t the worst loss ever. He has good skills, espeically on the feet, and this is a guy who took Giga to a split decision in his debut.

Miranda is an exciting fighter who is kill or be killed, but he’s been killed in 2 of his 3 UFC fights with his win being over Shane Young who is 0-4 in his last 4.

Miranda is super hittable, and I think it’s only a matter of time before Emmers gets to the chin and finishes Miranda off. Emmers is the pick, I would also play Emmers ITD as well when props come out.

Rafa Garcia -485 vs Vinc Pichel +370

Pichel is 42 years old, and he looked like it in his last fight. Credit to him for going the distance against Bonfim, but he has to be near the end of his career. He’s fought twice in 3 years, and he just doesn’t have the power or output to keep up it appears.

Garcia is going to be too active on the feet, and probably in the wrestling department as well if he chooses, but I think he’ll just keep this on the feet and piece up the slower and older Pichel from distance.

I think Pichel will be tough to finish so I like this fight to go the distance, but Garcia is the easy pick here.

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Loopy Godinez -198 vs Julia Polastri +163

I’ll just never understand why Godinez wants to be a striker when she’s an elite wrestler with an elite wrestling background, but here we are. She’s lost 2 straight to really good opponents, and she just seems to make fights way closer than they need to be.

She strikes and does ok, but if she would just mix in more takedowns, she would be really hard to figure out. This is a pretty big step down in competition for her as she lost to Jandiroba and Dern, and now she gets Poalstri who barely won a split against McKenna in her last fight.

Polastri is strong in the clinch, but slow on the feet and I think Godinez’s speed is going to be difficult for Polastri to keep up.

Even if Polastri initiates the clinch, I don’t think she can hold Godinez there for long, and I don’t see heer doing much damage.

Betting on Loopy is frustrating because we know how talented she is physically she just doesn’t seem to perform at 100% of her ability. I’ll reluctantly take her to win, but really the best way to play this fight is to go the distance. I don’t see a finish at all in this one.

Christian Rodriguez -170 vs Melquizael Costa +145

Rodriguez has a really good wrestling and ground game, and that’s certainly his path to victory here as Costa is good, not great on the ground.

I’m a Costa fan, I love his aggressiveness and his willingness to put on exciting fights, and he’ll definitely be the better striker in this fight, but he’s going to have to fight off the clinch and takedowns for 3 rounds or get the finish.

He absolutely can finish by sub or KO, but in the end I think Rodriguez is going to be able to get inside and take away Costa’s advantage on the feet.

If Rodriguez wins, this is probably going the distance so I think if you’re playing Rodriguez, just play him to win by decision.

D-Rod didn’t finish Bashi who is in his early 20’s and was making his UFC debut so I don’t think he can finish Costa who is durable and has really good cardio. My heart will be rooting for Costa, but my bankroll will be betting C-Rod.

Ateba Gauthier -550 vs Jose Medina +410

Both of these guys are raw, and not polished, but Gauthier’s power and athleticism is going to be the difference.

Medina got a contract from CS simply because Dana White enjoyed watching him getting his ass kicked. Seriously. That happened.

He got his ass kicked again over 3 rounds in his UFC debut, and I think it could happen again. Gauthier is a monster with great power and aggression, but he needs a lot of coaching on his takedown defense, wrestling and such.

However, his raw talent will be more than enough as the best compliment I can give Medina is that he’s tough, and that’s not winning UFC fights.

Maybe there’s a world where Gauthier almost finishes Medina in the first and gasses himself out, and Medina survives and wears him out over rounds 2 and 3, but that’s a live betting opportunity.

Gauthier should have the striking advantage and power advantage, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes Medina, who is terrible, and I still can’t believe Dana gave him a contract.

Edgar Chairez -340 vs CJ Vergara +270

I have concerns about both fighters here. Chairez’s only UFC win is against Lacerda who got cut from the UFC, and Vergara has back to back losses against a striker, and then against a grappler.

Chairez had a war against Van in his last fight, but his cardio fell off a cliff, and I can’t lay -340 when I think he’s going to be tired starting in round 2.

His striking should be better, but I wonder if Vergara can just out work Chairez for 3 rounds and get a close decision win.

He’ll have to use his speed on the feed, and zap Chairez’s energy early, and avoid the big shots, but I think there’s a chance that happens.

Because of that, I can’t bet Chairez at this number, but I don’t like how Vergara is hittable on the feet, and is coming off a KO loss. This fight is a pass for me.

Ronaldo Rodriguez -166 vs Kevin Borjas +140

Ronaldo certainly has that dog in him. He can put himself in bad positions like getting hit or getting put in submissions, but he just has that scrap to where he can get out of them, and get his offense going.

Against Osbourne, he was knocked down, and almost submitted several times, but he reversed everything and ended up. His lack of defense will certainly catch up with him, but is Borjas that guy? I don’t think so. Borjas has lost both his UFC fights, and I just don’t see the upside.

His striking is ok, but he couldn’t finish his CS opponent, and he really doesn’t have a good ground game as Josh Van was able to take him down, so where’s the upside?

Rodriguez has holes in his game, but he’s 17-2 as a pro for a reason, and someone with limited weapons and upside just isn’t going to get it done against someone like that. Rodriguez will get the win.

David Martinez -395 vs Saimon Oliveira +310

I haven’t heard Oliveira’s name in a while, and that’s because he hasn’t fought in over 2 years. He won on CS in 2021 and he’s only fought twice in the UFC, losing both.

The last time we saw him, he got easily beat by Daniel Marcos, and he looked terrible to be honest. His striking was sloppy, kicks were lazy, and his defense didn’t hold up as Marcos finished him, and that’s the only finish for Marcos in his last 6 fights.

Martinez is making his debut, which makes me nervous, but he has good movement, really good leg kicks, and we ranked him as the best fighter on his night of CS.

He keeps his hands a bit too low for my liking, but surely they’ve worked on that. I just don’t see Oliviera making huge improvements at age 33, I think Martinez cruises in this one.

Raul Rosas -305 vs Vince Morales +245

Rosas is probably my favorite play on the card, it’s an excellent parlay piece…as long as Rosas wrestles and gets takedowns.

In his last fight against Aoriqileng, he kept the fight on the feet for quite a while, but he did mix in the takedowns, and he cruised to victory.

If he gets the takedowns from the beginning, he’ll maul Morales on the ground and probably get the finish. If he wants to strike, it will be close, but Morales is so bad right now, Rosas probably wins a striking match.

Morales is on his second UFC run, but it’s not going well as he’s dropped both his fights in his return, and he really hasn’t been all that competitive.

His striking has been awful, he’s been getting hit on the feet, and he doesn’t have a ground game to fall back on.

He lost his last fight to a CS guy making his debut, and Lapilus put a clinic on him before that. Rosas could have an easy day at the office if he wants to get this on the ground, but no matter what he does he should come away with the win.

Joe Pyfer -550 vs Kelvin Gastelum +410

Gastelum has trouble making weight, and he really hasn’t looked all that good recently. His win against D-Rod was a red flag as Rodriguez is old, and Gastelum struggled at times, and won the decision in lackluster fashion. His striking is good, but not terrifying as his last KO was in 2017.

I expect this fight to take place on the feet, but I wouldn’t rush to lay -550 on Pyfer. Between CS and UFC, he’s 5-1, but his loss was the one fight that went to decision when Hermansson survived the early barrage, and then wore down Pyfer as he tired out, and Gastelum can do that.

Pyfer’s recent finish over Barriault was nice, but before that he’d been finishing some weak guys. I think if you’re playing Pyfer, you play him by KO, but if Gastelum gets out of the first round, don’t be surprised if he has success striking Pyfer, and he can absolutely make rounds 2 and 3 interesting.

This will be a pass for me, but it could be a great live betting situation if you see Pyfer not get the early finish and start to get a bit tired.

Manuel Torres -120 vs Drew Dober +100

EXPECT VIOLENCE!!! These guys will go to war on the feet in this one, and I love Torres at basically a pick em coming off a loss.

Torres got a bit cocky with his style in his last fight, and he left his chin exposed and Bahamondes knocked him out pretty easy with how exposed the chin was.

He’ll make adjustments, and protect himself better, and I think he lights up Dober who has striking defense issues of his own.

Dober hasjust one win in his last 4 fights, and it was over Ricky Glenn, who is a plumber and part time fighter.

Frevola knocked him out, Moicano beat him on the ground, and Silva put a massive cut on his eye that required a doctor’s stoppage.

He’s 36 years old and all the wear and tear has caught up with him in my opinion. He can strike, but I don’t think he’s as terrifying as he used to be. I would be stunned if this fight goes the distance, I like Torres to get the KO win.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Brandon Moreno vs Steve Erceg

Moreno had lost 2 in a row to Pantoja and Royval, but both were close split decisions, and then he fought Albazi and looked fantastic so I think he’s back on track for a title run.

His striking is fantastic, his cardio is great, and he really put it on Albazi for 5 rounds as he showed great defense with striking and takedowns.

Erceg has had a strange start to his UFC career as he beat Dvorak, Costa and Schnell and then he elevated to a title shot against Pantoja, and while he lost he looked great and I think we expected big things from him.

However, his next fight he got KO’d by Kara-France in a stunner so maybe it was a little too much too soon for Erceg. He has decent striking, and a good clinch, but can he get it going against Moreno? I just don’t see it.

Moreno has fought the best of the division for years, and I don’t think Erceg is going to show him anything new.

Moreno’s speed and striking accuracy will be too much, and I don’t see Erceg getting Moreno down and holding him there. Moreno by decision is the play for me.

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