The Masters 2025: Expert PGA Predictions & Betting Preview

The Masters 2025 Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The Masters teeing off from Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, GA! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding The Masters starting on April 10th!

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The Masters	The Masters Betting Notes
When:	April 10-13
Where:	Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, GA
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	CBS, ESPN

The Masters Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The Masters Betting Preview

It’s Masters Week!

What’s nice about this week is that I don’t have to go into much detail on the course itself.  Even for the most casual golf fan, Augusta National has several holes that you are familiar with. 

Plus, you can find a thousand articles online about the course or the experience as a patron. So, I’ll skip the course preview and focus on what it takes to win here.

Experience. More than any other course on Tour, course experience matters at Augusta National.  Every hole has places you can miss, and places you cannot. The greens also take familiarity when it comes to knowing where to land the ball to get it to chase to the pin.

To highlight the importance of experience here, DataGolf put together a great graphic to visualize players’ performance at The Masters in relation to the number of times they have teed it up in this event.

In years one and two, players on average lose strokes to the field. On year three, they begin gaining strokes over the field and those numbers steadily rise before peaking in year nine. 

The most consistent period of peak performance at Augusta National is found in those players competing in their 7th to 13th Masters. 

Players who fall into that category include (in order of DataGolf rankings): 

Rahm, Thomas, Henley, Lowry, Schauffele, Cantlay, DeChambeau, Fleetwood, Conners, Hatton, Bradley, Glover, Koepka, Finau, Reed, Horshchel, Harman, Spieth, Smith, Fitzpatrick, and Willett.

Notable names missing from that list include Rory McIlroy, who is starting in his 17th Masters, as well as Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa or Ludvig Aberg, all of whom have started less than seven times.  Oddly, or maybe not, those are basically the top guys on the oddsboard.

Of course, that doesn’t mean someone outside of that list can’t win, Scottie Scheffler two out of the last three years ago is a perfect example, playing in just his 4^th Masters, however, Jon Rahm won in the year between Scheffler’s wins and was right in that sweet spot, playing in his 7th Masters in 2023.

In addition to experience, you better be playing well coming into this tournament as these winners’ trends highlight:

Recent Results: 

• 14 of the last 16 have at least 4 TOUR wins 
• 13 of the last 15 have finished in the Top-6 in a major in the previous two years 
• 14 of the last 15 have finished in the Top-8 at least once in their previous seven events 

In the year leading up to the Masters: 

• 15 of the last 15 have ranked inside the Top-30 SG: Tee to Green 
• 14 of the last 16 have ranked inside the Top-50 in Driving Distance 
• 15 of the last 17 have ranked outside the Top-50 in SG: Putting 

Overall: 

• 23 of the last 25 winners have ranked inside the Top-30 OWGR 
• Favorite Stat: 13 of the last 13 winners have gained at least 18.0 total strokes tee-to-green in their four tournaments leading up to the Masters.

16 players fit that final trend which includes Scheffler, Conners, Morikawa, Lowry, Spaun, Bradley, McIlroy, Straka, Garcia, Rai, DeChambeau, Glover, Zalatoris, Henley, MacIntyre, and Kevin Yu.

So, to sum it up, you need to know Augusta National, and you need to be in good form. Additionally, it helps to be long off the tee and have strong ball-striking numbers, but oddly, being an elite putter is something not needed to win The Masters, though it’s safe to say you better have a hot putter that week.

Finally, the weather this week looks fantastic. Monday was basically a full rainout, but the rest of the week is dry save for a chance of showers on Friday morning. 

That should allow the tournament organizers to let Augusta get firm and fast as the week progresses.  Winds look to be a non-factor, and temps should be steady in the upper 60s and lower 70s all week.

The Masters Predictions

Winner: Justin Thomas +2500 | Top-10 +210 | Top-20 -115

It’s no secret JT has returned to form after a horrible 2023 campaign.  The only thing missing still though is a win.

Since the start of the Fall Season, Thomas has played in ten events, finishing Top-10 in six of those including four podium finishes. He is knocking on the door and sooner or later he’s going to break through.

When it comes to Augusta, JT hasn’t really had a chance to win.  He missed the cut each of the last two years, though we already know those were down times, but prior to that, he did have six straight Top-22 finishes including a T8 in 2022 and a solo 4^th in 2020 (November Masters) so I’m banking on a return to that consistency. 

JT ranks 13^th in Total SG this season and 8^th in SG Approach which is the single most important metric at Augusta. Elite iron play. He is also #1 in Putting Average and #1 in Birdie Conversion Percentage. If those stat lines continue this week, he will have a chance on Sunday.

Winner: Robert MacIntyre +6000 | Top-10 +400 | Top-20 +150

The one thing missing for Bobby Mac is his experience around this track as this is only his third start at The Masters. 

However, that is the year in which Strokes Gained data begins to turn positive based on number of appearances. Also, his two starts he finished a very respectable T12 in 2021 and T23 in 2022 (he didn’t get the invite the last two years).

Aside from that he has finished inside the Top-11 in three of his last four PGA Tour starts including:

T6 WM Phoenix Open

T11 Arnold Palmer Invitational

9^th THE PLAYERS Championship

Strong fields and tough courses are certainly good prep for this week.

See you next week for the RBC Heritage!

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