Honda Classic Betting Odds and Predictions Feb 24-27
Honda Classic Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Honda Classic from PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the Honda Classic leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Honda Classic | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | February 24-27 |
| Where: | PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida |
| Defending Champ: | Matt Jones |
| Current Favorite: | Sung-Jae Im (+1000 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; NBC on Saturday and Sunday |
Honda Classic Odds Board
Last week at The Genesis was the first event in 2022 in which the winner was not ranked inside the top-10 in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green or Approach over the last six months heading into the tournament.
Joaquin Niemann ranked 27th and 40th in those two categories respectively and was not on many people’s radars. This week presents another good opportunity to look further down the rankings list as none of the World’s top-10 are teeing it up, leaving the door open for some protentional longshots.
Honda Classic Betting Favorites
Top-10 Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green over the last six months (betting odds via DraftKings)
Daniel Berger +1.89 (+1600)
Sungjae Im +1.70 (+1000)
Joaquin Niemann +1.40 (+1800)
Louis Oosthuizen +1.24 (+1600)
Nicolai Hojgaard +1.23 (+8000)* All Euro Tour
Shane Lowry +1.11 (+2200)
Jhonattan Vegas +1.08 (+4000)
Rickie Fowler +1.04 (+6500)
Tommy Fleetwood +1.03 (+1400)
Keith Mitchell +0.98 (+3500)
The Honda Classic Course and Field
From Nick Borrman: The West Coast Swing is over and The Florida Swing gets underway this week. I thought last week was going to be the highest winning score of 2022, but Niemann torched the field and overall, Riviera CC played easier than it historically does. However, all signs point to a tough event this week. In 15 previous editions of this event since moving to PGA National in 2007, the winning score has reached double-digits just four times.
PGA National is a hard track and includes the famous “Bear Trap,” holes 15-17 that if you play at even par over the four rounds, you are likely in contention come Sunday. A great stat I saw about the Bear Trap is according to ShotLink, there have been almost 600 players who have played in the Honda Classic at PGA National and 88% of them are over par on the Bear Trap in their careers.
There are bunkers and water all over the place and it will be difficult to avoid those for four rounds, especially if the wind blows, which it is forecasted to do in the 10-15 mph range all week with gusts pushing 30 mph.
Lastly, par-3’s are very difficult here as they ranked as the third-hardest and second-hardest each of the last two seasons. While you can’t put everything into a stat like that, I do suggest heading over to PGATour.com and checking out Par-3 scoring stats where you will find none other than Florida native, Billy Horschel leading that statistic with a minimum of at least 20 rounds played this year.
Nick’s Picks
This will be the first week that I’m going to venture outside the top-10 Strokes Gained data to find some longshot selections for most of my picks.
Keith Mitchell +3500 (at DraftKings) | Top-10 +450 (at FanDuel)
OK, I lied. I’ll start with my outright selections at #10 with Keith Mitchell who has won just once PGA Tour event in his career, the 2019 Honda Classic. He was listed at 250-1 that week so we aren’t getting ‘quite’ as good value on him this week, but he is arguably playing some of the best golf of his career.
In four starts so far in 2022, he did miss the cut at Torrey Pines, but finished T7, T12 and T10 in his other three starts and took off last week at Riviera, giving him an extra week of rest.
He also fits the mold with Par-3 scoring, ranking T-20 this season with a pretty big sample size of 34 rounds as he played quite a bit in the fall.
Denny McCarthy +6500 (at FanDuel) | Top-10 +600 (at FanDuel)
McCarthy usually does a lot of his damage in the fall swing when the fields are weak, but he has carried over that form into 2022. Although he did miss the cut in his last start at the WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago, he also finished T12 at Pebble and T6 at the American Express in his two starts prior to that.
A couple numbers that look good for McCarthy this week is he ranks 13th in Driving Accuracy while only 169th in Distance. Distance is not important this week but finding the fairway and avoiding all the bunkers and water is clearly an advantage. He is also one of the best putters on Tour. In fact, he ranked as the best putter in 2019 and 2020, while finishing 22nd in the statistic last year. So far this year, he has fallen right in line again at 16th in Strokes Gained Putting.
Lastly, he boasts the 10th best Scoring Average this year and already has six Top-20 finishes.
Nicolai Hojgaard To Miss the Cut +150
There is a lot of talk around Hojgaard and rightfully so, the 20-year-old has shown a lot of talent and promise already winning twice on the DP World Tour (European Tour). However, he is lacking consistency and seems to be struggling on some of the tougher venues. His last four starts are MC, MC, Win, MC. So, we either bet him to MC or bet him outright and the former seems like a more likely scenario.
He missed the cut at Abu Dhabi and Dubai where the winning scores were -10 and -12, respectively, and that is likely the target score this week as well. Throw in the fact this is his first PGA Tour start and it just adds another layer of pressure.
Honda Classic Players to Avoid
From Andy Lang: Brooks Koepka – He’s as inconsistent as it gets, and he’s been open in interviews that if he gets off to a bad start he gives up. His last three starts in 2022 are MC, 3, MC. His last three starts at this tournament are MC, 2, MC. It’s best to avoid him.
Tommy Fleetwood – Traditionally he is better in Europe than he is in the States, but this tournament he’s played in twice and finished 3rd and 4th, but he only has one finish inside the top 10 since his 3rd place finish and that was at a watered down ZoZo tourney. He’s overvalued this week in the betting markets
Aaron Wise – People are going to gravitate to him because of his good finishes here…13, 35, 33…but he’s in awful form right now going MC, MC, 67 this season. His stats are below average across the board, he’s not doing anything good right now, and this course can eat up golfers who are struggling. It’s best to lay off him this week.
Honda Classic Draftkings Darlings
Nick Watney ($6600) – It’s a weak field, and he’s made the cut six straight times at this course. Made the cut in two out of three weeks in 2022.
Harry Higgs ($6700) – Made the cut in three out of his last four tournaments, and has only played here twice but finished 58th in 2020 and 19th in 2021.
Matthew NeSmith ($6900) – He’s made the cut in three out of his last four weeks, and has finished 36th and 38th the past two years in his only two appearances here.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Honda Classic at PGA National? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Honda Classic Preview
After nearly two months in Hawaii and the west coast, the PGA Tour kicks off its Florida Swing at the infamous Bear Trap. On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman preview the Honda Classic at PGA National in Palm Beach Gardens. Join Nick and Andy every Wednesday morning at 10am ET / 7am PT for their PGA picks and predictions.
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