Valero Texas Open Odds and Betting Preview March 31 – April 3
Valero Texas Open Betting Preview
WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang offer their thoughts on this week’s Valero Texas Open from TPC San Antonio in Texas. Nick and Andy discuss the guys at the top of the odds board, some potential longshots that could crack the Valero Texas Open leaderboard and some intriguing head-to-head matchups.
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| Valero Texas Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | March 31 – April 3, 2022 |
| Where: | TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) |
| Defending Champ: | Jordan Spieth |
| Current Favorite: | Rory McIlroy (+750 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel and NBC |
Valero Texas Open Odds Board
Scottie Scheffler’s win at last week’s WGC Match Play signaled the eighth winner out of 12 events in 2022 in which the winner ranked inside the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months heading into the event. So, let’s once again start by looking at the top-10 for this week in Texas.
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
Rory McIlroy +1.90 (+750) DK
Hideki Matsuyama +1.58 (+1700) FD
Maverick McNealy +1.24 (+3500) DK
Corey Conners +1.24 (+1800) DK
Denny McCarthy +0.96 (+8000) FD
Gary Woodland +0.92 (+3400) FD
Luke List +0.92 (+6000) DK
Jhonattan Vegas +0.81 (+5500) DK
Abraham Ancer +0.79 (+2200) DK
Adam Hadwin +0.78 (+4000) DK
The Valero Texas Open Course and Field
From Nick Borrman: This event has the added incentive, or pressure, of being the last event before the Masters and thus, many players’ last chance of getting that invitation to play at Augusta. Three years ago, Corey Conners won this event, after qualifying on Monday mind you, to punch his ticket down Magnolia Lane the following week.
So perhaps when choosing your outright plays this week, take an extra look at the guys not yet qualified. Currently, only 22 players of the field of 144 have qualified to play at next week’s Masters.
Much like the Florida Swing, you must pay attention to wind at TPC San Antonio. As it stands now, Thursday looks rather calm, while Friday looks the breeziest with 10-20 mph winds with the weekend dropping to the lower end of that spectrum.
I’m sure it won’t be anywhere near like the extreme advantage we saw at The Players a few weeks ago, but with lighter winds on Thursday that will increase throughout the day on Friday, there is likely an advantage to those with the Thursday PM then Friday AM draw.
TPC San Antonio is a stock par 72 and although you can always argue ball-striking is an advantage at any course, Jordan Spieth proved last year that isn’t necessarily the case here. Spieth ranked 57th in Greens in Regulation last year but first in par-4 scoring and par-5 scoring.
When he did hit the green, he was close and made birdie and was able to scramble enough to get around the course. It just proves that any one particular skill set is hard to focus in on this week.
Nick’s Picks
Overall, I’m going to stay light this week and focus more of my attention onto next week’s Masters. But here are some names I have circled:
Maverick McNealy +3500 (DK) | Top-10 +350 (DK)
McNealy ranks third in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months at +1.24 per round with his only real weakness coming around the green. He ranks No. 37 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and No. 29 in Strokes Gained Putting, totaling up to No. 30 in Total Strokes Gained. He owns the 24th-best scoring average on Tour this season and has missed just one cut in 13 starts.
McNealy has made eight-straight cuts and although he didn’t make it out of group play last week at the Dell Match Play, he did have the most lopsided win of the week, beating Niemann 8 & 6 on Day 1. As far as freshness, you have to believe he has an advantage over a guy like Conners, who played seven rounds of golf in five days.
Gary Woodland +3400 (FD) | Top-10 +350 (DK)
Woodland is a name I haven’t picked in quite some time, but now seems like the right time. After missing four-straight cuts to open the season, he has now made the cut in three of his last four events including two T5 finishes at The Honda and the Arnold Palmer Invitational while also finishing T21 at the Valspar Championship.
He has the bonus of not competing last week at the Match Play and also had a very strong result here last year, finish T6 despite not having any prior form heading into the week. He ranks inside the top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, gaining strokes in all five categories.
Adam Hadwin Top-20 +175 (DK)
Hadwin has finished T7 and T9 in his last two starts at the Valspar and The Players, respectively. He is a short hitter with his driver, but he is very accurate, ranking No. 26 in Fairways hits and No. 16 in Greens in Regulation.
Further, Hadwin ranks inside the top-40 in every other Strokes Gained category including Approach, Around the Green, Putting, Tee to Green and Total. After missing the cut here in his first start in 2015, he has since gotten better every start finishing T70 in 2017 and T23 here last year.
Players to Avoid
From Andy Lang: Rory McIlroy – Why is Rory playing this tournament? He hasn’t played here since 2013, and obviously he wants to get some practice in before The Masters, but I’m not sure how motivated he’s going be to play four rounds.
Maybe he makes the cut and plays good, but we’ve seen plenty of guys miss the cut (sometimes on purpose) the week before Augusta. He’s the most expensive player in daily fantasy, and the favorite to win the tourney, there’s no way I’m wagering any money on Rory in bets or daily fantasy lineups.
Hideki Matsuyama – He played here last year and finished 30th before winning The Masters the next week so maybe he’s wanting to repeat his schedule from last year. But he’s now the defending champ of The Masters and his schedule is way different this year with media, public appearances, and the overall pressure. He might surprise me and play well this week as Hideki is an odd one and surprises me all the time, but I don’t want any part of him this week.
Davis Riley – We all loved Riley a couple weeks ago when he finished runner up to Sam Burns, but that’s the outlier. His previous five finishes were MC, 42, 49, MC and 59. His price on DK at $8400 is crazy, don’t let that second place finish fool you.
Andy’s DraftKings Darlings
Anirban Lahiri ($7100) – He says he added more weight to his irons and it drastically improved his iron play in his last tournament where he finished second. He finished fifth last year here, and if his swing is that improved this price is a bargain.
Rickie Fowler ($7700) – He isn’t in The Masters next week, he’s finished 17th the last two years here, he has tons of motivation to play good this week, he should get you solid points this week.
Patton Kizzire ($8000) – He’s only missed one cut in eight tournaments this season and has three top-35 finishes in a row. He finished ninth here last year, good form and good recent history, he’ll be in my lineup this week.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Valero Texas Open Preview
Special guest Paige Spiranac joins Nick and Andy on Tee Time from Vegas for an early preview of next week’s Masters. Who is in the best form heading into Augusta National, and whose game is best suited for the iconic track? Nick, Andy and Paige discuss some of their favorite plays on the Masters odds board before taking a look at this week’s Valero Texas Open field.
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