2022 Mexico Open Betting Preview and Tournament Odds April 28 – May 1
Mexico Open Prediction and Odds
The PGA Tour heads to Vidanta Vallarta for the first time for this week’s Mexico Open. Mexico has hosted several events in the past like the WGC-Mexico and Mayakoba, but this will be the first time that the PGA Tour has collaborated with Mexico’s national championship. WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s tournament.
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| 2022 Mexico Open | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | April 28 – May 1, 2022 |
| Where: | Vidanta Vallarta |
| Defending Champ: | Álvaro Ortiz (Non-PGA Event) |
| Current Favorite: | Jon Rahm (+350 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Mexico Open Odds Board
The top of this week’s odds board is extremely top-heavy and reminiscent of a Tiger Woods-type odds board. Here is this week’s top-10 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months, with their betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings):
Jon Rahm +2.12 (+450) FD
Sebastian Munoz +1.13 (+3200) FD
Gary Woodland +0.81 (+2400) FD
Abraham Ancer +0.79 (+2000) DK
Cameron Tringale +0.77 (+3700) FD
Russell Knox +0.71 (+7000) DK
Charles Howell III +0.68 (+6000) DK
Mark Hubbard +0.65 (+7000) DK
Chris Kirk +0.65 (+3500) DK
Aaron Wise +0.63 (+3200) FD
The Mexico Open Course & Field
From Nick Borrman: I’m not going to pretend to know a lot about this course, because I don’t, but what I do know is the course is rather new, built in 2016, and is a par 71 measuring over 7,400 yards which is pretty lengthy even be PGA Tour standards. The course is basically at sea level so it should play to its full yardage.
Length will definitely be an advantage this week and even still, there will be plenty of mid-to-long iron shots needed to win, so make sure to take a look at the rankings via PGATour.com to see who are the better long iron players such as Russell Knox and Tony Finau ranked No. 2 and No. 3 in Greens in Regulation on approach shots from 175-200 yards.
After last week’s two-man team event, this week returns to a standard stroke play event with a field of 144. Outside of World No. 2 Jon Rahm, the next best player in the field is 20th-ranked Abraham Ancer along with No. 25 Tony Finau as the only players in the top-25 teeing it up this week.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
My strategy this week is rather simple. Don’t bet Jon Rahm. Don’t bet Jon Rahm. Don’t bet Jon Rahm. Full disclosure, that strategy has nothing to do with the fact that I think he will play poorly, rather only because his price is completely un-bettable.
Gary Woodland +2400 (FD) | Top-10 +250 (FD)
Woodland has really started to come around with his game now a couple years removed from his 2018-19 season in which he had eight top-10 finishes including winning the US Open. Since then, he has been hampered with injuries but those finally seem to be behind him.
Over his last six starts, Woodland does have two missed cuts, but those came at the Masters and at The Players, two very tough tracks with very deep fields, but his other four starts were a T5, T5, T21 and T8. He ranks No. 3 in Total SG over the last six months at +0.81 but that number jumps to +1.23 over the last three months and +1.44 over his last six starts which is much more comparable to Jon Rahm at +1.59.
Woodland ranks No. 27 in SG Approach this season and No. 1 in Going for the Green Success which should help him with those Par 5s this week.
Russell Knox Top-10 +600 | Top-20 +275 (DK)
Knox ranks No. 21 SG Approach and No. 28 SG Tee to Green this season thanks to ranking No. 2 in Greens in Regulation. The problem is he sucks at putting, ranking #198. While that will likely keep him from winning many tournaments, it won’t necessarily keep him from popping his name on leaderboards, especially in a weak field like this where he still ranks No. 6 in Total Strokes Gained despite losing over -0.50 SG per round putting.
Knox does have a couple top-10s this year including at the Sony Open and at The Players.
Cameron Champ -110 over Carlos Ortiz
Champ is not a name that I have wagered on all year, but he appears to finally have his wrist injury behind him and is coming off a T10 at the Masters in which he ranked T2 in Greens in Regulation. His distance will play here as he averages over 320 yards off the tee which is No. 1 on Tour. He also ranks No. 13 in Greens in Regulation from 175-200 yards and No. 24 from 200-225 yards which will likely come up quite a bit this week.
For Ortiz, I like the fade spot of the Mexican player who instead of believing will do well in his home country, I feel will have a lot of pressure on him to perform. That probably doesn’t bode well as he comes in on the heels of four straight missed cuts and he hasn’t broken 70 in any round since February.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s Mexico Open? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | Mexico Betting Preview
Opened in 2015, Vidanta Vallarta will host the Mexico Open for the next three years. On this episode of WagerTalk’s Tee Time from Vegas, golf handicappers Andy Lang and Nick Borrman share their thoughts on this week’s tournament, including the favorites at the top of the leaderboard and some featured head-to-head matchups.
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