Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 2 Prediction and Betting Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Preview

The Maple Leafs blew out the Lightning in Game 1 of this series 5-0 behind two goals from center Auston Matthews. WagerTalk NHL handicapper Kevin Dolan offers his thoughts on Game 2 of the Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning series in Toronto.

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Wednesday, May 4	NHL Betting Notes, Courtesy of Caesars
Moneyline:	Toronto Maple Leafs -130 vs Tampa Bay Lightning +110
Puckline:	Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190) / Lightning +1.5 (-220)
Total:	6 Goals (Over -125 / Under +105)
Game Time:	7:30pm ET / 4:30pm PT
Arena:	Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON
TV:	ESPN2

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Game 2 Analysis

The Toronto Maple Leafs easily took Monday’s Game 1 opener against the Tampa Bay Lightning with a 5-0 blowout win on home ice.

Both Austin Matthews and Mitchell Marner stepped up big for the Leafs in that game with three goals and three assists between them as the crowd inside the Scotiabank Arena played a major part in lifting Toronto to one of their best playoff wins in recent history.

The two teams split their four game series this season with both sides claiming a win and a loss on the road and at home this year, which sets up what could be an incredibly tight playoff series moving forward.

Tampa Bay’s Underlying Data Finally Coming Home To Roost

While it’s been an impressive season overall for the Tampa Bay Lightning, they nonetheless have been blessed with some good fortune over the course of the year so far with a +19 expected goal differential, the 7th highest in the league.

That’s fed into their overall numbers this year as well as despite scoring an impressive 3.48 goals per game this season, the 8th highest mark in the league, they haven’t created all that much, ranking just 15th in the league on overall expected goal data this season.

The Lightning have averaged the 3rd highest shots to goal percentage this year behind only Minnesota and St. Louis which has helped them immensly, but once that number starts to inevitably dip off, the Lightning could be in some trouble further down the line in this series.

Toronto Might Be Hitting Form At Just The Right Time

After reviewing expected goal differential data to cap off the season back on April 15th ahead of the upcoming playoffs, we put out a tweet to suggest the price on the Toronto Maple Leafs at +1000 was the best value on the board as the Leafs have been getting it done this season despite things not always going their way.

The Maple Leafs finished the regular season on a -17 expected goal differential, by far the worst mark out of any of the top teams heading into the playoffs (Colorado, Florida, Calgary and Carolina were all in plus territory), and one of the worst in the league as a whole (27th).

However, taking +0 as an average, we’ve already started to see these numbers average out, with Toronto now at -16 and the likes of Carolina, who were at +30 over the final week of the regular season, now dropping to +26 as lady luck starts to desert them.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

I’ve been high on this Toronto team over 2022 as a whole as any team that can consistently get results from one of the league’s worst expected goals differential positions is always a team I’m interested in backing over the long-term.

While the Leafs scored a fantastic opening series victory on Monday, Center Austin Matthews was quick to say the jobs not done here and Toronto needs to hold home serve again tonight and not give anything away cheaply to Tampa Bay.

We like Toronto to do just that tonight and we’re taking the Toronto Maple Leafs on the moneyline to win outright at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2.

Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-130)

NHL Betting Guide

Thanks to the ever-expanding sports betting industry, there are now a variety of ways to attack the betting market outside of the traditional point spreads, moneylines and totals. Few sports have seen an increase of betting popularity like hockey, and we now have several different ways to wager on the NHL and international leagues. Check out our NHL Betting Guide with helpful terms and tips for novice bettors.

Puck Time | NHL Predictions for May 4

Join Carmine Bianco, Andrew McInnis and The Prez for Wednesday’s edition of Puck Time as our panel of professional hockey handicappers break down tonight’s NHL playoff betting card. The Kings were able to pull off an upset of the Oilers in Game 1 of their series 4-3. Will they be able to go up 2-0 in the series before heading to Los Angeles? Join the Puck Time crew every week day at 11am ET / 8am PT as we discuss the NHL betting slate from a variety of handicapping angles.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NHL moneylines, puck lines and betting percentages for all of Wednesday’s playoff games, including this Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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Meet the Author

‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.

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