USMNT vs Mexico Picks and Odds Nov 12

USMNT vs Mexico Picks and Predictions

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his USMNT vs Mexico betting preview for Friday’s World Cup qualifying match at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. At the time of posting, Mexico has opened as a modest road favorite with the over/under set at two goals for the match.

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USMNT vs Mexico Betting Preview

• Mexico +145
• USMNT +225
• Draw +205
• Total: 2 goals
• The last two meetings between these teams have ended in a draw with the USMNT winning both in extra time.

After the embarrassment of not qualifying for the 2018 World Cup, there is immense pressure on Team USA to make it through to Qatar in 2022 and as it stands now, all indicators are that they will make it.

Gregg Berhalter was brought on to manage the team after the 2018 World Cup and has delivered some promising results going 29-5-7 in 41 games managed thus far including collecting two trophies this past summer, the Gold Cup and the CONCACAF Nations League. Both of those titles came at the expense of Mexico, as USA bettered their rivals in extra time in both competitions. All signs are pointing to a change in dominance over CONCACAF where Mexico has long ruled.

CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying

So far in World Cup Qualifying, USA comes in 2nd in the group with 11 points through six games with a 3-2-1 record and 9:4 goal differential. Their lone loss coming on the road at Panama during the last international break in October while also drawing with Canada and El Salvador. Mexico though, stand on top of the group with an unbeaten 4-2-0 record and 10:3 goal differential, settling for draws against Canada and Panama.

During qualifying, Mexico has averaged 16.5 shots per game with 5.7 on goal while stifling their opponents defensively, where they have only allowed an average of 6.5 shots per game with just 1.7 on goal. USA have been less dominant, averaging 11.7 shots per game and 4.0 on goal while allowing 8.0 shots per game and 2.3 on goal.

USMNT vs Mexico Injury Report

USA has been dealing with injuries or other absences during their World Cup qualifying campaign. Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic missed the October window due to injury, Giovanni Reyna was injured in their first qualifying game, a 0-0 draw against El Salvador and has seen been sidelined for both club and country since then, and even Juventus’ Weston McKennie missed a couple games for disciplinary reasons.

The good news is that Pulisic is back active for this international break while Weston McKennie should be on the squad, so long as follows simple protocol. However Reyna remains sidelined and additionally Barcelona’s Sergino Dest will miss this break with a back injury.

USMNT vs Mexico Prediction

All that said, USA have become rather deep with some incredible young talent they can call on, highlighted by Ricado Pepi at just 18-years old who has scored three goals so far during this qualifying campaign. The average age of their roster is under 24 when camp begins on Monday, November 8.

Even though they are young, USA has finally started to produce talent that the biggest clubs in the world want to get their hands on as they have a ton of talent playing in Europe. Pulisic at Chelsea, Adams at RB Leipzig, McKennie at Juventus, Dest at Barcelona, Reyna at Dortmund, Sargent at Norwich, Weah at Lille, Yedlin at Galatasaray and even their keeper, Steffen at Manchester City.

On the flip side, Mexico is aging. They had six players over the age of 30 in their starting XI in their last qualifying game alone and it’s certainly a cause for concern as they move forward. Mexico is also not well represented in Europe with most of their roster playing at home in Liga MX or in the MLS.

For the first time I can remember, Team USA arguably has the better roster on paper. The fact that they remain underdogs at home is a gift I will gladly take as you can currently get +0.25 on the Asian handicap at around -125. Team USA hasn’t lost on home soil since the Gold Cup in 2019 at the hands of none other than Mexico, but this current roster is only getting better and better every game. Besides grabbing the +0.25 Asian handicap spread, USA at anything over +200 on the 3-way line to win the game is also worth a play.

Soccer Betting Guide

What’s the difference between the two-way and three-way line in soccer betting? What does the Asian handicap mean? If the game ends in a draw, do you get your money back? Check out our Soccer Betting Guide to become more familiar with the nuances of betting on soccer.

Soccer Betting 101

Kelly Stewart sits down with WagerTalk soccer handicappers Nick Borrman and Carmine Bianco to go over soccer betting tips for beginners.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, goal spreads and totals for this week’s World Cup qualifying matches, including this USMNT vs Mexico showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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