Netherlands vs Poland Prediction and Betting Odds | UEFA Nations League June 11

Netherlands vs Poland Betting Preview

WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman shares his thoughts on Saturday’s Netherlands vs Poland clash in the UEFA Nations League. Poland looks to rebound after suffering a 6-1 loss to Belgium, while the Netherlands beat that same Belgian team 4-1 earlier this week.

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Saturday, June 11	UEFA Nations League Betting Notes
Netherlands:	-285
Poland:	+700
Draw:	+450
Total:	2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings)
Game Time:	2:45pm ET / 11:45am PT

Netherlands vs Poland Analysis

Round three of the UEFA Nations League sees Poland travel to the Netherlands. The Netherlands sit top of the group with two wins over Belgium and Wales while Poland sits third in the table, tied with Belgium on three points, with a win over Wales and a loss vs Belgium. The Netherlands are heavy favorites to make it three wins from three games as the teams square off on Saturday afternoon.

Poland Desperate for a Rebound

Poland comes into this match after an embarrassing 6-1 loss at Belgium as the No. 1-ranked Red Devils ran circles around them. That match was certainly a disappointment after Poland were able to comeback vs Wales in their first match to win 2-1.

However, that type of a loss is extremely rare for this Polish team as it was their first loss by more than one goal since the last edition of the Nations League tournament, losing to Italy 2-0 in 2020.

They had played in 20 straight matches without losing by two or more goals including their entire World Cup qualifying group, the Euro 2020 tournament and three friendly matches. Going back even further, Poland has just two losses by more than one goal dating all the way back to the World Cup in 2018, a span of 42 games. That run included matches against some of the best teams in the world in England twice, Italy four times, Spain, Portugal and this same Netherlands side twice.

Poland is led by one of the best goal scorers on the planet in Robert Lewandowski and they have a very solid backline, although you might be quick to look past that because of their last performance, but that was clearly an anomaly. That match was only the second time in their last 39 games in which they allowed more than one goal which is important, as it’s rare that Poland is kept off the scoreboard and thus a big reason why they don’t lose by multiple goals very often.

High Flying Dutch

The Netherlands couldn’t be happier with their start to this third edition of the Nations League as they have scored six goals in their two wins including beating No. 1-ranked Belgium 4-1 in their opening match. But as is often the case when you see an eyebrow raising result like that first match, reality can quickly set in and temper expectations.

The Netherlands were able to win their second game against Wales though, but not without some high blood pressure drama. Overall, the match was very evenly played with both teams exchanging blows in the finals minutes as Wales drew level in the 90+2’ only to see Netherlands strike back less than two minutes later to steal the late win.

The concern however, is with their defense as they rarely keep clean sheets against quality opponents. In their last eight matches against good teams such as Wales, Belgium, Germany, Denmark, Norway (twice), Turkey and Czech Republic, they kept just one clean sheet.

Their method of victory generally comes on the offensive side of the ball by simply outshooting their opponents and taking chances even if it leaves them vulnerable at times. But the question is, can they score enough to win by more than one goal against a strong defensive side.

Netherlands vs Poland Betting Preview

The best time to play on a team is after an outlier result like we saw in Poland’s embarrassing loss to Belgium. If those teams play each other ten times, there is very little chance they lose by even three goals again. Poland will be focused on tightening up their defense for this match and I find it extremely unlikely the Netherlands will net three or four goals against a defense that has allowed that many only twice in 39 matches. I’m simply going to fade the overreaction and take the head start on Poland +1.25 (-105).

Stoppage Time | UEFA Nations League Betting Preview

Join Carmine, Nick and Kevin for Stoppage Time as we break down this week’s featured matchups in the UEFA Nations League, including Belgium vs Poland; Portugal vs Czech Republic; and Switzerland vs Spain.

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Meet the Author

Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.

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