Finn Factor MLB Power Ratings: The Final Weeks

MLB Power Ratings

WagerTalk handicapper Tony Finn offers his late-September baseball state of the union and updated MLB power ratings. With just two weeks remaining in the Major League Baseball regular season, which teams are in top form heading into the postseason? Which teams are scratching and clawing to hold onto their spots?

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MLB State of the Union

In the last installment of the Finn Factor MLB Power Rankings, I wrote, “The Fall-Classic tournament bracket is roughly five weeks away. I am one of a few from the school of thought that the only portions of the Major League Baseball postseason schedule that needs to be decided, filled if you will, are the two leagues pair of Wild Cards.”

Not to be mistaken with “sliced bread,” the best of professional sports is played out daily, mainly under the lights and inside the lines of North American diamonds.

While my statement in the ‘Dog Days of Summer Edition of the team ratings was accurate about the division winners, all holding serve my passionate belief that “The NL Wild Card spots will be filled by two of the following; Dodgers, Giants, and Reds. The NL West title runners-up will fill the No. 1 wild card slot in the 2021 Fall-Classic bracket, Los Angeles or San Francisco. The Yankees currently reside at the top of the American League, owning the No. 1 Wild Card seat.”

I concluded that my Fall-Classic table had blinkers on and was squarely focused on “the second AL Wild Card” slot. But, I added to the last Finn Factor MLB editorial, “that second spot or final wild card slot was the only decision that the 2021 baseball campaign had yet to determined.”

Once the August 24th ‘Dog Days of Summer rankings hit the WagerTalk Newsstand and my battle cry that “the only postseason spot that is truly still to be decided” was the Shot Heard Round the World, it became transparent that the Finn Factor Rating dart was being guided by a crooked shaft and a misplaced flight.

To bend-at-the-waste and pick up where we left off with the “Dog Days of Summer” edition is a breadth too far for even Evil Knievel to conquer, so I will summarize the changes from those-then to the who-now.

Both wild-card spots in the American League are still in play, and the same can be said for the National side of the bracket. The American League pair of wildcards spots will fall to a couple of AL East franchises. The Red Sox own the No. 1 WC slot with the Blue Jays a game-and-one-half back while holding that second lost by the slimmest (half-a-game) in front of the Bronx Bombers.

A gaggle of baseball pundits will roll their eyes when I share my conviction that St Louis will squander their current 3 or 4 game lead to Cincinnati or San Diego, respectfully.

Yes, the Cardinals have won 11 of their past 12 games. They enter today (Tuesday, Sept 22nd), riding a nine-game winning streak. However, supporting what the Cardinals have done the last two weeks won’t match what they do in club’s final 13 remaining games. St Louis’ remaining 13 games have them scheduled for six against the Brewers and seven vs rival Chicago.

I’ll be a monkey’s uncle if the Cards win more than five of their final 13 tilts. The seven games that St Louis have remaining with the Cubs will take on a life of its own. As a result the Cardinals will be positioned as the team that caved to the late September pressure.

Milwaukee will begin adjusting their postseason rotation in the three-game set vs St Louis at Busch Stadium.

Meanwhile, the Padres have fallen to 3 1/2 games back. They were swept in three games at St. Louis and have lost eight of their past 10. They are 10-24 since Aug. 10 and this is the farthest they’ve been out of playoff position all season. And we saw the dugout shouting match.

The Cardinals have now won 10 of their past 11 games. They are now on an eight-game winning streak and those wins all came against teams that were, at least at the time, viable contenders for the second wild card. The Cardinals simply took care of business and now have opened up a three-game lead.

Since we last shared this WagerTalk News space the Padres have systematically dropped from nine to three games above the Mason-Dixon line and departed the second wild card spot. The Padres are one game behind the Reds and four out of the second wild card spot. San Diego had an off-day on Monday following a three-game sweep at the hands of St. Louis.

The Reds, who took ownership of the second NL wild card, have now lost 14 of their past 20 and all things equal for the most part to non-contenders.

The Phillies benefited from the Padres and Reds failures and by happenstance found themselves back in the postseason chase after earning four consecutive wins spanning this past weekend only to lose the finale of their set at old-Shea followed by a 2-0 whitewashing at the hands of the Orioles on Monday.

What odds have the bookmakers place on the Phillies closing the three-game gap between themselves and the NL East first place Atlanta Braves? The current top of the Senior Circuit East Division is -220 to hold serve while the most of the Vegas and Offshore shops have the Phillies at +220 to prevent Atlanta from winning their fourth straight division title.

September 21 MLB Power Ratings

1. San Francisco Giants – Record: 97-53 (Previous ranking: 1)
The Giants enter the final 12 games of the regular season owning a one-game lead over the rival Dodgers. San Francisco is 7-3 across their last 10 games and have the third-best run differential in all of baseball behind the team they have a one-game lead over in the NL West, Los Angeles, and behind the best +/- in the AL being the Houston Astros.

The Bay Area’s best have six games remaining versus the Padres and a pair of three-game sets against Arizona and at Colorado.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers – Record: 96-54 (Previous ranking: 3)
The fact that this group of Dave Roberts All-Stars have not had more than a one-game lead in the division dating back to the last week of April. LA has not been further than a handful of games behind the first-place Giants at any point the last four-plus months.

3. Houston Astros – Record: 89-61 (Previous ranking: 2)
What is the best middle defense in the American League has become an extremely reliable and versatile outfield with the dangerous bat of Kyle Tucker in right, Michael Brantley in left and the duo of Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick holding down centerfield with both garning time in the corners giving Tucker and Brantley late season R&R.

4. Tampa Bay Rays – Record: 93-58 (Previous ranking: 4)
The home-dome for this Tampa Team is never going to be categorized as one of the Eight Wonders of the World but Katie-bar-the-door if you tell this group of blue collar ballers their digs are rags when compared to the rest of the league. Knowing and understanding the advantage that Tampa Bay has when positioned in a game at Tropicana Field is not lost on the rest of the league. The Rays have arguably the most favorable home park factor in all of baseball.

At 48-28 at home this season the Rays might not have the best overall record on home turf but arguably have that home field X-factor under the Trop roof that makes the Rays the league’s most difficult team to beat when playing host to the rest of Major League Baseball. The Dodgers, Giants and White Sox all have more home wins than do the Rays, 52, 49 and 49 respectfully.

5. Milwaukee Brewers – Record: 91-59 (Previous ranking: 5)
Skipper Craig Counsell has been limiting the innings of his top three starters (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta) and has shown little concern with a handful of club records that are this squad’s for the taking. The Brew Crew need to win six of their remaining 12 games to set a franchise record for total season wins. Also a 9-3 finish to this 2021 campaign would result in the franchises first ever 100-win season.

The @Cardinals have won 9 straight games for the first time since 2004 (8/27-9/5). pic.twitter.com/a8jv31Qjl1

— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) September 21, 2021

6. Atlanta Braves – Record: 78-70 (Previous ranking: 6)
7. Chicago White Sox – Record: 85-65 (Previous ranking: 7)
8. Boston Red Sox – Record: 86-65 (Previous ranking: 10)
9. Toronto Blue Jays – Record: 84-66 (Previous ranking: 15)
10. New York Yankees – Record: 84-67 (Previous ranking: 8)
11. Cincinnati Reds – Record: 78-73 (Previous ranking: 9)
12. St. Louis Cardinals – Record: 80-69 (Previous ranking: 17)
13. Oakland Athletics – Record: 82-68 (Previous ranking: 11)
14. Philadelphia Phillies – Record: 76-74 (Previous ranking: 12)
15. San Diego Padres – Record: 76-73 (Previous ranking: 14)
16. New York Mets – Record: 73-77 (Previous rank: 13)
17. Seattle Mariners – Record: 81-69 (Previous ranking: 16)
18. Los Angeles Angels – Record: 72-78 (Previous ranking: 18)
19. Cleveland Indians – Record: 73-76 (Previous ranking: 19)
20. Detroit Tigers – Record: 73-78 (Previous ranking: 22)
21. Kansas City Royals – Record: 69-82 (Previous ranking: 21)
22. Miami Marlins – Record: 64-86 (Previous ranking: 23)
23. Colorado Rockies – Record: 70-79 (Previous ranking: 25)
24. Chicago Cubs – Record: 67-83 (Previous ranking: 26)
25. Minnesota Twins – Record: 65-85 (Previous ranking: 24)
26. Washington Nationals – Record: 61-89 (Previous ranking: 20)
27. Pittsburgh Pirates – Record: 56-94 (Previous ranking: 27)
28. Texas Rangers – Record: 55-95 (Previous ranking: 28)
29. Arizona Diamondbacks – Record: 48-102 (Previous ranking: 29)
30. Baltimore Orioles – Record: 48-102 (Previous ranking: 30)

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