Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants NFL Week 11 Monday Night Football Preview

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants Predictions

WagerTalk NFL handicapper Andy Lang offers his Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants Monday Night Football betting preview. At the time of posting, the Buccaneers are an 11-point home favorite over the visiting Giants, with the total sitting at 49.5 points.

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Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants Betting Notes

• Tampa Bay Bucs -11 vs New York Giants
• Total: 49.5 Points
• The Giants are 12-2 against the spread in their last 14 games as a road underdog.
• Since the middle of the 2020 season, the under is 12-3 in the Giants’ last 15 games.

The Giants should be feeling better going into Monday Night as it appears Saquon Barkley will be returning, and he will be going up against a defense that was elite early in the year, but has really struggled the last two weeks giving up 36 to the Saints and 29 to the Football Team. Brady has also seemed shaky in the passing game, but it really hasn’t been because of a ton of pressure as he’s only been hit once the last two games, and the completion percentage hasn’t dipped, but the turnovers have. He has two interceptions each of the last two games, and coming into these two games he had three combined in seven games. This could be a tough matchup for Brady as the Giants have forced at least one interception in six straight game.

To build on the Giants defense, they’ve been good the last three weeks allowing only three points to Carolina, 20 to Kansas City, and 16 to Las Vegas. In those three games they had a combined 68 pressures on the quarterback, but they have been exposed in the running game against good rushing offenses as the Raiders and Cowboys both averaged over five yards a carry against them. That’s the weakness of the defense, and it will be interesting to see if Tampa tries to exploit that as they have not committed to the run the last two weeks having less than 15 carries in each of those games.

The Tampa defense hasn’t been bad in their last two losses, but they’ve failed to make plays in key situations. Ill-times penalties have extended drives for the other teams, and third down defense has gotten worst as the year has gone on and last week Washington converted 57% of third downs. If you’re wondering how important third down defense is, the worst eight teams on third down last week all lost. They can’t allow the Giants to extend drives so they’ll have to keep Saquon in check along with Daniel Jones. Jones has been anything but flashy this year, but considering all the injuries and lack of availability at the skill positions, he’s done decent. Only five interceptions this year, and three were in one game against the Rams. He has no games over 270 yards passing that didn’t go to overtime, and they just can’t stretch the field as he’s been under seven yards a completion four games in a row.

Prediction: UNDER 49.5…Lean Giants +10.5

I’m going with the under here at 49.5 points fairly confidently. We have a Tampa offense who has been sputtering lately against a Giants defense who has been playing combined with a limited Giants offense going up against a Tampa defense who has elite talent, and are only a few adjustments away from being back to the great defense we saw early in the year. Antonio Brown and Gronk being out has affected the Tampa offense, and even though Saquon is back don’t expect a full workload in his return.

I see touchdowns being a little tough to come by, especially on the Giants side so getting over 50 points is going to be a tall order. I lean taking the points as I believe it’s a lower scoring game, and the Giants D should present problems for Brady, but not as confident as the under as the Giants lack of explosion on offense could lead to a big win for Tampa if the Bucs get going at home in primetime.

🏈 NFL teams that lose to a division rival on the road should be hungry for revenge when they play that team at home, right? Not so much. On Thursday’s edition of WagerTalk Today, @CalSportsLV did some myth busting on some #NFL division trends.
➡️ https://t.co/ymbMR1dfbx pic.twitter.com/GKyo613SD1

— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 19, 2021

Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants Analysis from The GoldSheet

Last week’s bye, on the heels of an uplifting win over the Raiders to give the Giants their best mark after nine games (it’s only 3-6) since 2016, suggests progress, albeit slowly. And it might start to come a bit faster this week if some of the recently-infirmed, like Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Sterling Shepard can return to the fold, giving QB Daniel Jones the rare opportunity to have all hands on deck.

Rest assured that Bruce Arians will also remind his Bucs that NY has allowed 20 points or fewer in its last three games, while the Bucs have plenty of their own issues to fix after coming out of their bye week flat as pancakes last week at Washington, and yet to eradicate a string of penalties at the least-opportune times. Finally, let’s also note forget that the G-Men have proven spoilers for Tom Brady before, so don’t be surprised if this turns into a real scrap as was last year’s game at MetLife, when TB barely survived 25-23.

The Prezidential Address

Looking for a 30-minute show that attacks NFL betting from every angle? The Prezidential Address is for you. Each week, Prez will go through the entire NFL schedule and offer his thoughts on bets against the spread, over/under totals, teaser options and player props. In this week’s edition of The Prezidential Address, we cover the Tampa Bay Bucs vs New York Giants game at the 24:45 timestamp.

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