John Deere Classic Predictions and Betting Odds | June 30 – July 3
John Deere Classic Betting Preview
There’s no real way to sugarcoat it: This week’s PGA Tour field for the John Deere Classic in Illinois is…rough. Most of the world’s top players are taking the week off, while Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Abraham Ancer, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed and others compete at the LIV Golf Invitational in Portland. So who’s left? WagerTalk golf handicappers Nick Borrman and Andy Lang share their thoughts on this week’s event in Illinois, with featured head-to-head matchups and some longshots that might crack the leaderboard.
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| 2022 John Deere Classic | PGA Tour Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| When: | June 30 – July 3, 2022 |
| Where: | TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois |
| Defending Champ: | Lucas Glover |
| Current Favorite(s): | Adam Hadwin (+1000 at DraftKings) |
| TV: | Golf Channel on Thursday and Friday; CBS on Saturday and Sunday |
Travelers Championship Recap
Xander Schauffele’s win in Connecticut last week makes it 16 of 25 tournaments in 2022 in which the winner has come from within the top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (He was No. 4).
Of those 16 winners, only once has the winner been ranked No. 1 or no. 2, and only once has the winner ranked lower than No. 7. So that means in 14 of 25 tournaments this year the winner has ranked between No. 3 thru No. 7. That’s five guys. You bet those five guys every week this year and you have correctly picked the outright winner 14 times! So, without further ado…
John Deere Classic Odds Board
Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings)
[#80] Adam Hadwin +1.07 (+1800) FD
[#93] Denny McCarthy +1.02 (+2900) FD
[#86] Maverick McNealy +0.81 (+3300) Bet365
[#137] Jason Day +0.76 (+3500) DK
[#248] Taylor Pendrith +0.68 (+8000) DK
[#99] JT Poston +0.67 (+5500) DK
[#181] Charles Howell III +0.64 (+3500) Bet365
[#83] Cameron Davis +0.63 (+4500) DK
[#113] Brendon Todd +0.63 (+3500) DK
[#129] Scott Stallings +0.58 (+3500) DK
Notables:
[#66] Sahith Theegala +0.55 (+2700) FD
[#58] Webb Simpson +0.33 (+1200) DK
[#235] Nick Hardy +0.15 (+4000) DK (+0.79 L3 Months)
The John Deere Classic Course & Field
From Nick Borrman: Only a one-hour drive from where I grew up, a course I’ve played a few times and the host of my first ever PGA Tour event as a fan in attendance, it always warms my heart to see the PGA Tour return to the Quad Cities.
The tournament winner here has averaged around 20-under par as the course features wider-than-average fairways as well as large greens. If you miss big enough, the rough can be penalizing at 4” or more, but the field averages nearly 13 greens per round and the winner will have to make close to 25 birdies or more this week. The par-71 tips at just under 7,300 yards.
Weather looks mostly clear with temps reaching the low 90s on Wednesday and Thursday before a chance of T-Storms rolls in on Friday afternoon. Winds are up on Thursday between 10-20 mph so there could be a slight advantage to get out early Thursday and if rain does roll in Friday afternoon, it could further soften things up for that same wave of guys.
The field is as weak as we have seen in a couple months on Tour and might be the weakest of any event in 2022 as Webb Simpson is the highest ranked player at No. 58. Past winners include Jordan Spieth (a two-time winner), and Bryson DeChambeau, along with Zach Johnson and of course, Steve Stricker.
Stricker, a three-time champion, who at 55 years young is coming off a runner-up at last week’s US Senior Open, is likely to get a lot of attention this week. Some other big names that have played well here without winning include Daniel Berger, Collin Morikawa, Joaquin Niemann and Viktor Hovland. So, just because the field doesn’t boast many of today’s marquee names, there are likely plenty of tomorrow’s stars making their way around TPC Deere Run this week.
Nick’s Betting Favorites
I’ll be looking to back those young guns who have yet to win on Tour as this tournament presents their best possible chance to get that first win. On the flipside, course history does tend to be a good indicator of future success here as guys like Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker have nearly made careers out of just their results at TPC Deere Run.
Charles Howell III +3500 (DK) | Top-10 +400 (Bet365)
Howell has a little bit of everything going on. He is playing well making the cut in five of this last seven starts including a T4 at the Valero and a T18 at the Memorial. He tends to play well in the weaker field events.
He also has a long history at this tournament having made the cut in 12 of 13 appearances including nine top-25s and three top-10s. The last three trips here for CH3 were T23, T6 and T19.
He ranks No. 6 on Tour this season in greens in regulation and has a strong short game ranking No. 16 in Strokes Gained Around the Green. He also falls into the sweet spot of 2022 winners, ranking no. 7 in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months.
Nick Hardy +4000 (DK) | Top-10 +450 (DK)
Not a name you are probably familiar with but after grinding on the Korn Ferry Tour the last few years, he finally earned his PGA Tour card this year. However, it has been far from stellar until more recently after returning from a wrist injury.
He finished T2 at a KFT event at the end of May, then rallied off three straight impressive results on the PGA Tour, getting better each week with a T35 at the RBC Canadian Open, T14 at the US Open and a T8 last week at the Travelers Championship. Of course, the concern there is this will be his fourth-straight start in a row which is tough on anyone.
Lastly, because of his current run, as previewed in the opening graphic, Hardy is gaining +0.79 Total Strokes Gained per round over the last three months which ranks No. 7 in this field.
BEST BET Brendon Todd Top-40 -115 (DK)
I successfully backed Todd in a top-40 bet just a few weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open where he finished T13 after coming off a solo 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge in his previous start.
He since missed the cut last week at the Travelers Championship but in three of his previous four MCs, he followed that up with a top-20 finish in his next start including two top-10s.
Todd is a fantastic putter ranking No. 6 on Tour in Strokes Gained Putting and is very accurate ranking No. 5 in driving accuracy. He ranks No. 9 in this field in Total Strokes Gained over the last six months but even better more recently ranking No. 4 over the last three months averaging +1.06 Strokes Gained per round.
Interested in placing a bet on this week’s John Deere Classic? BetMGM is offering a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Tennessee, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Washington DC, Wyoming, Mississippi, Arizona and Louisiana.
Tee Time from Vegas | John Deere Classic Betting Preview
When Adam Hadwin is the betting favorite of a PGA Tour event, you know the field is rather thin. Join Andy Lang and Nick Borrman for Tee Time from Vegas as we break down this week’s John Deere Classic in Illinois.
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