Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Prediction and Betting Odds | MLS July 9
Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Betting Preview
It’s a derby-filled weekend in MLS with several of the league’s top teams facing off against one another. Few rivalries compare to the Pacific Northwest battle between Portland and Seattle. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Saturday’s clash between the Sounders and Timbers.
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| Saturday, July 9 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders: | -125 |
| Portland Timbers: | +290 |
| Draw: | +275 |
| Total: | 2.75 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT |
Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Analysis
After a slow start to the season, Seattle has begun to climb the Western Conference table and currently sit in seventh place, occupying the final playoff spot while Portland remains on the outside looking in, three points back of the Sounders.
The rivalry between these two sides is one of the biggest in the sport, thanks to the recent success of both teams, who have combined to win three of the last seven MLS Cups, as well as Portland winning the MLS is Back tournament.
The Wily Veteran Timbers
While Portland is getting younger each year, they still support some of the most veteran players in the league including Sebastian Blanco (34), Diego Chara (36), Yimmi Chara (31) and Dairon Asprilla leading the way. That experience has proven to go a long way in grinding out results even when underlying numbers don’t look promising.
Portland is giving up far too many goals, 29 so far on the season, with only two teams allowing more in the Conference, but on the flip side, they have scored 29 also, with only two teams scoring more. The Timbers remain outside the playoff picture because of their defense and the fact that they have settled for a Conference leading eight draws through 19 matches.
However, their defense has improved this season, at least according to xG, as they have allowed 1.50 xGA per game which is right in the middle of the pack, ranking No. 16 of 28 teams. Compare that to the last two years where they ranked dead last allowing 1.82 and 1.84 xGA.
Yet somehow, they made it all the way to the MLS Cup Final last year, losing to NYCFC on penalties, and finished the regular season ranked #3 in the West in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, while also winning the MLS is Back tournament that year. That all comes from experience of knowing how to win.
Portland is also in solid form, unbeaten in their last four games including two away draws at very good Nashville and LA Galaxy sides.
CONCACAF’s Effect on Seattle
Be wary if you are only looking at Seattle’s season-long numbers. The Sounders made history earlier this season becoming the first MLS team to win the CONCACAF Champions League in its modern format, but it came at the expense of league results. While that competition was going on, Seattle had won just two of their first eight MLS matches with a -0.63 xG differential per game.
(For your future early-season MLS betting advice, a general rule of thumb for MLS teams that participate in the CONCACAF Champions League is to fade them in league play, as they just don’t have the squad depth needed to manage two competitions like the big teams in Europe.)
But since that slow league start, they have since won six of their last nine games to climb back into a playoff position (which they should easily qualify for come end of the season,) and have a +0.55 xG differential per game.
Seattle Sounders vs Portland Timbers Prediction
Despite all of that, this is a big-time rivalry, and you can throw all the numbers out of the window. Rivalries like this always tend to ignore current trends, but the one trend that is worth noting is the road team seems to have all the success in recent years winning eight of the last ten meetings.
Even if the Sounders do manage to win this game, I find it very unlikely they do it by multiple goals, so taking Portland +0.75 (-125) presents some great value as a one-goal loss will only result in a half-loss on our wager.
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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