2022-23 Serie A Top 4 Odds, Picks and Predictions
Serie A Top 4 Betting Preview
The capital teams of Roma and Lazio were both squeezed out of the top four mix last season as AC Milan, Inter, Napoli and Juventus all took the top spots in the league, but the books believe Roma are definitely potential candidates this year for a Top 4 spot with some odds having them tied with Napoli as fourth favorites in the market. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Kevin Dolan shares his thoughts on the 2022-2023 Serie A Top 4 betting market.
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No Value On The Top Teams
At odds of anywhere between -400 to -800, there’s very little value in backing any of the big three teams at current odds right now in either Inter, Juventus or AC Milan to finish inside the Top 4 this season.
A Look Further Down The Table
A look further down the table reveals why the books have shortened Roma’s odds of a Top 4 finish this season considerably.
Roma finished with the 4th best expected points tally out of any team last year, even ahead of teams like Juventus, and closed out the year on an even stronger note as well.
From January 1st on, Roma ranked as the league’s third best team on overall expected points, edging out Napoli in fourth place and finishing a full 5.40 xPTS ahead of Juventus also.
Not only that, but Roma also had the second best xGA rating from January 1st last season as well, with only AC Milan showing a better overall mark in the league on defense.
2022-23 Serie A Top 4 Prediction
Roma look like the clear cut value right now at odds of +150 to finally break the Top 4 this year, especially after their Europa Conference League success of last season.
In terms of a potential outsider however, Fiorentina at +800 also offer value as the ‘Gigliati’ finished out the back third of the year strong with 20 points accumulated over the final 12 games of the season and the league’s 4th best expected points tally from March 1st on as well.
On top of that they’ve been boosted by the arrivals of both Luka Jovic from Real Madrid and Rolando Mandragora from Juventus in both attack and defense respectively in the off-season as they look to improve on last season’s 7th position mark in the league.
Take Roma at +150 as the main play for Top 4 this season over in Italian Serie A with an outsider eye towards Fiorentina at odds of +800 also.
Prediction: Roma (+150)
Outside Chance: Fiorentina (+800)
2022-23 Serie A Title Odds
Odds below courtesy of DraftKings as of Thursday, July 14:
| Team | 2022-23 Serie A Title Odds |
|---|---|
| Juventus | +175 |
| Inter Milan | +175 |
| AC Milan | +400 |
| Napoli | +1400 |
| AS Roma | +1400 |
| Atalanta | +2500 |
| Lazio | +5000 |
| Fiorentina | +5000 |
| Sassuolo | +10000 |
| Torino | +20000 |
| Udinese | +25000 |
| Verona | +50000 |
| Sampdoria | +50000 |
| Bologna | +50000 |
| Empoli | +100000 |
| Lecce | +100000 |
| Monza Brianza | +100000 |
| Spezia | +100000 |
| Salernitana | +100000 |
| Cremonese | +100000 |
2022-23 Premier League Betting Previews
Click Here for Title Odds Analysis
Click Here for Relegation Odds Analysis
Click Here for Top-6 Betting Analysis
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
‘The sharpest sports mind in Ireland’ is how one prominent newspaper dubbed Kevin Dolan after he became the first foreigner ever to win the World Series of Handicapping tournament back in 2015. “The Irishman” made his start wagering on GAA, football, soccer and boxing, all to immense success. Since becoming a professional bettor, he has since lit up the sports betting scene in the U.S. and abroad, winning two handicapping awards and writing a best-selling book on sports handicapping named ‘The Complete Guide to Sports Betting’.
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