New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Free Picks, Predictions and Betting Odds | MLS July 17
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Betting Preview
The second and third place teams in the Eastern Conference duel it out at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, New Jersey. WagerTalk soccer handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on Sunday’s clash between the Red Bulls and NYCFC.
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| Sunday, July 17 | MLS Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Red Bulls: | +125 |
| NYCFC: | +190 |
| Draw: | +250 |
| Total: | 2.5 Goals (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
| Game Time: | 5:00pm ET / 2:00pm PT |
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Analysis
It’s the 23rd edition of the Hudson River Derby as NYCFC travel to Harrison, NJ to take on the Red Bulls in a battle of two of the best teams in the East.
The defending champs, NYCFC, sit No. 2 in the East on 35 points while NYRB are just two points back, currently holding onto the No. 3 seed.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s at kickoff but there is a potential for thunderstorms which could impact or delay the match at any time.
The Champs on Course to Repeat
New York City FC once again look like the team to beat in the East. No disrespect to the Red Bulls or the Philadelphia Union, but the numbers don’t lie and once again NYCFC are the clear favorites when looking at xG numbers.
At the beginning of the playoffs last year, I wrote an article previewing NYCFC as a team to buy. They were largely being ignored as all eyes were on New England who set the MLS record by earning 73 regular season points and literally running laps around the rest of the Eastern Conference.
However, results in soccer can often be misleading and xG data is a great tool to look under the surface. NYCFC led the league with a +0.78 xG differential and also ranked either No. 1 or No. 2 in all offensive and defense shot averages. They just didn’t have every break or lucky bounce go their way like New England did.
This season, NYCFC are once again leading the league in xG, owning an even better +1.02 differential per game while also ranking No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 in shot averages.
They are the only team in the league averaging over 2.0 xG per game at 2.23, while allowing the 3rd fewest xGA at 1.21. They also have just four losses in 19 games.
Bullish on the Red Bulls?
After a dominant run from 2013 to 2018 in which the Red Bulls won the East four out of six seasons, they have been very mediocre the last three seasons.
While they did qualify for the playoffs each year, they were knocked out in the first round as the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
This year, you might be inclined to think they are vastly improved as they sit No. 3 in the Conference and just three points back of the Union at the top of the table.
However, looking at xG data tells a more similar story to the last several seasons, they have just been slightly more fortunate with their results.
The one constant though for NYRB, is that their defense has been solid each of the last two seasons ranking No. 1 or No. 2 in defensive shots allowed, neck and neck with NYCFC.
Offensively though, they have just not been good enough, or at least anywhere near the level of a championship caliber team like NYCFC.
New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC Prediction
We must remember that this is a derby, and the No. 1 rule of a derby is to throw all the numbers at the window, they don’t matter.
Rivalries in any sport always seem to play out much differently than you think they should on the surface. The results of this derby are in the Red Bulls favor as they lead with 13 wins and three draws compared to just six wins for NYCFC.
However, we must remember NYCFC was an expansion team in 2015 and those early seasons were certainly difficult.
As it stands now, NYCFC have proven they are the cream of the crop in the MLS and we are being given a gift by getting a + goal line number on them. Take the bait and grab NYCFC +0.25 (-110).
Prediction: New York City FC +0.25
Soccer Betting 101
New to betting on soccer? Not familiar with all the wagering options, such as three-way betting and the Asian handicap? What stats should a novice soccer bettor focus on? What are some basic tips and strategies? Carmine Bianco and Nick Borrman joined Kelly Stewart to share some tips to novice soccer bettors.
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Meet the Author
Nick Borrman fell in love with professional ‘football’ (as anyone outside of the United States would refer to it) the first time he attended an MLS match. Now, he uses statistical analysis as well as current trends to successfully find value on soccer matches across the globe. Borrman focuses much of his attention on the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and Serie A, as well as the most prestigious tournament of them all, the Champions League. Borrman derives many of his plays from his model forecasts and releases plays several days ahead of time to consistently beat line moves.
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