Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Prediction and Picks 5/6/23

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Betting Preview

Canelo Alvarez is undefeated when boxing in Mexico with John Ryder putting his 32-5 record to the test as these two clash this Saturday. WagerTalk boxing handicapper Kevin Dolan gives his Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder prediction and picks with the main event set for 10:00pm ET.

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Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Betting Odds

Saturday, May 6	Boxing Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Canelo Alvarez -1600 vs John Ryder +900
Rounds:	8.5 Rounds (Over -110 / Under -110)
Fight Time:	Main Event Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, Mexico
TV:	DAZN PPV

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Betting Analysis

Boxing superstar Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns home to his native Mexico this weekend for the first time in over eleven years as he takes on tough British veteran John Ryder in the Estadio Akron in Guadalajara this Saturday night live over on DAZN.

John Ryder is a fighter who earned his shot at Canelo’s undisputed super middleweight crown through the WBO, overcoming Zach Parker in an entertaining all British dust-up in London last November.

Despite a slow start, John Ryder was able to do what he does best in that fight, consistently wear down his opponents through a combination of pressure and a high work rate, grinding the taller fighter down as Parker was forced to retire at the start of the 5th round due to a hand injury, and giving Parker his first professional defeat in the process.

Home Advantage for Alvarez

However, despite Ryder’s fantastic run of form over the last few years, he faces a huge mountain to climb on Saturday night against Mexico’s favorite son, as well as 50,000 passionate Mexican fans in attendance to watch their hero defend his belts as well.

Given the massive challenge facing John Ryder ahead of this one, does the Englishman have enough to pull the upset on Saturday night?

That possibility remains unlikely given how brilliant Canelo has been since his move to super-middleweight two years ago, beating three undefeated champions in Callum Smith, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant all in the space of just 12 months to solidify himself as the king of the 168lb division.

That said, Canelo has faced his critics over the last year as well, losing a wide decision against Dmitry Bivol last May in a fight the Russian light heavyweight champion was effectively able to leverage his superior size and reach in to control the action.

Ryder Looks to Prove Doubters Wrong

John Ryder did lose to a common opponent of Canelo’s in Callum Smith back in 2019, but most observers felt he clearly won that fight.

However, with some extremely dubious scoring on display, and was never given the chance to settle the matter against the big Liverpudlian in any subsequent fight as Callum Smith went on to face Canelo himself.

John Ryder therefore definitely shouldn’t be overlooked by Canelo ahead of this one as he is a fighter of merit, holding good accounts of himself against three common Canelo opponents in Callum Smith, Danny Jacobs, and Rocky Fielding.

He’ll no doubt be going to Mexico to prove the last few years were no fluke either as he’s promised a huge statement victory on hostile soil this weekend against the pound-for-pound great.

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder Expert Prediction

However, despite the impressive run John Ryder has been on over recent years, his style should be perfect for Canelo in this one given his grinding, consistent pressure tendencies on the inside, a style that will no doubt give Canelo the opportunity to walk him onto something big.

Given Ryder’s toughness and persistence in fights, we don’t envision this being a Rocky Fielding or Avni Yildirim type of affair with the road fighter happy to just pick up a cheque.

John Ryder, just from a psychological perspective, isn’t going to Mexico to roll over this weekend and should be present a tough out to Canelo early in this fight.

That said, while there’s certainly no questioning Ryder’s determination and will to win in the ring, the level of technical ability between the two fighters is vast and Canelo should have far too much on the inside for a more rudimentary John Ryder in this one, a fact that should result in an early to mid round stoppage on Saturday night.

Take Canelo Alvarez to get the KO/TKO between rounds 4-6 on Saturday at odds of +275 as he takes on John Ryder in his Mexican homecoming fight in Guadalajara this weekend.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez Rounds 4-6 (+275)


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