2021-22 Big Ten Basketball Betting Preview
Big Ten Basketball Preseason Predictions
WagerTalk college basketball handicapper Adam Trigger offers his thoughts on the upcoming 2021-22 Big Ten Basketball season. Which teams are being underrated by the betting market? Which teams should you stay away from? Check out Adam’s Big Ten Basketball betting preview.
The 2021-22 college basketball season tips off on Tuesday, November 9th, and Adam Trigger wants to introduce himself with a big discount! For a limited time, you can get the opening seven days of the college hoops season for ONLY $39, giving you access to ANY college basketball selections played during opening week, including ANY 5% Best Bets on the hardwood! Stay on top of the latest College Basketball updates direct from Las Vegas!
Big Ten Basketball Betting Preview
We remain in the middle of the country and land on our third power conference preview. The Big Ten is big time deep yet again this season and will likely have 5-6 teams in the Top 25 at any given time. Michigan and Ohio State are both really good this season and are typically overvalued even when they aren’t so, while it will be tough to bet against those two it will be difficult to find value betting on them as well. Purdue enters the season as a Top 10 team and probably has the most upside but I have a feeling Purdue is going to be a trendy pick in this conference and that might kill their betting value. The masses seem to be way high on Indiana thanks to the return of Trayce Jackson-Davis so I’ll go with the one that seems to be the least talked about right now as my first “bet on” to start the Big Ten conversation here.
Big Ten Basketball ‘BET ON’ Teams
Illinois Fighting Illini – I think the team out of the upper echelon Big Ten squads that is going to show the most value against the betting number this season is Illinois. Brad Underwood is an excellent coach and he was blessed with the return of 7 foot center Kofi Cockburn who is arguably the most dominant individual in the Big Ten right now. Cockburn averaged 17.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game and most teams in this conference (even the really good ones) are going to need a specific game plan for Illinois to keep Cockburn from doing whatever he wants in the post.
Cockburn is surrounded by a wealth of shooting options which means if teams deploy resources to stop Cockburn there should be plenty of open shots for the marksmen Illinois will have planted on the perimeter. Illinois has a couple of transfers in Alfonso Plummer from Utah and Omar Payne from Florida that will bolster the Illini’s depth but Illinois will start three seniors, a junior (Cockburn) and sophomore Andre Curbelo who were all integral parts of this Illinois team last year. Underwood also has three freshman with a ton of upside so there’s a possibility Illinois has a hidden gem in one of them that could turn out to be another contributor on a team that already has plenty. I think the masses are going to look at Ayo Dosunmu leaving as a huge blow to this Illinois team (there’s disputing he’s a stud) but I’ll argue the less replaceable talent is Cockburn and he’s back. Cockburn will be a nightmare for every Illinois opponent this season and as long as Illinois shoots it well (with this group they should) I can see the Illini contending right along side the bigger names in the Big Ten again this season.
Penn State Nittany Lions – I already addressed in some capacity Purdue, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio State and Indiana who seem to be the consensus Top 5 in the Big Ten in no particular order. Also in no particular order are Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Maryland who I think are all potential fades and I’ll address that in the next paragraph. Rutgers won’t be as good as they were last year but might still be undervalued against the number and, while Nebraska and Northwestern are intriguing I’m going to need to see both play a couple of times before deciding which way I want to go with either. Minnesota is going to be a complete dumpster fire but that’s also known which leaves one Big Ten squad I haven’t mentioned that I think is getting way overlooked and that’s the Penn State Nittany Lions.
I absolutely love Penn State coming into this season, again I want to point out I’m not saying Penn State is going to contend in this conference but I think the Nittany Lions are way better than advertised and will be a beast against the number. Penn State had to deal with ridiculous adversity last season, State College is in the Northeast where COVID hit hard and head coach Pat Chambers resigned a few weeks before the season. In spite of that, Penn State went 7-12 in conference play and pulled off upset wins over ranked opponents in Virginia Tech and Wisconsin. Penn State also beat Maryland twice and won a game in the Big Ten Tournament so, all things considered I think the Nittany Lions overachieved. Penn State has a new head coach in Micah Shrewsberry who was a Brad Stevens assistant at Butler and with the Celtics for years before most recently landing on Matt Painter’s staff at Purdue. Shrewsberry inherits a roster that has three upper classman starters and a senior sixth man back and adds three senior transfers that should all fit into this team perfectly and make an instant impact.
One of those transfers is Jalen Pickett who transfers in from Siena and, as a Siena alum, I know Pickett extremely well. Pickett was the Player of the Year in the MAAC in 2020 and I know for a fact he just didn’t care to play last year. Pickett also battled a hamstring injury and there were a number of players on that Siena team who mentally weren’t in a great place (Siena had as many COVID related shutdowns as any team in the country) so I just don’t think it was a very enjoyable experience for Pickett in Loudonville last season. Pickett is now in a power conference where he belongs and I think we are going to see the Pickett ball out this year the way he did for Siena in 2020. Jaheam Cornwall was a stud at Gardner Webb and he joins Pickett in the backcourt while Greg Lee comes in from Western Michigan and gives the Nittany Lions another solid front court option. Penn State will be an afterthought in this league thanks to the elite teams at the top but I think the Nittany Lions will represent themselves well and should be excellent against the number.
Big Ten Basketball ‘BET AGAINST’ Team
Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan State – I couldn’t pinpoint one or even two teams to highlight as “BET AGAINST” teams so I’ll use the next paragraph to give a reason or two about why I don’t think any team in this group will live up to the “name on the front of the jersey” this season.
Iowa is pretty simple, they lose Luka Garza, CJ Frederick and Joe Wieskamp and will be nowhere near the team they were last year. Garza was arguably the best player in college basketball last season and this Iowa team isn’t going to be able to just shoot teams into oblivion. Iowa was terrible defensively last year even when they were good but had the potent offense to mask that issue. McCaffery simply doesn’t have the talent he’s accustomed to in Iowa City this season and I just don’t see Iowa being very good.
It’s a rebuild year for Wisconsin who underachieved last year and comes into this season with a young, unproven team. Brad Davidson is the only returning double digit scorer and the only other senior on the roster is Cincinnati transfer Chris Vogt who is 7 feet tall but can’t score. The rest of the Wisconsin roster is made up of freshman or guys that haven’t played a ton of minutes at the Division 1 level so I’m not seeing where the scoring comes from for Wisconsin this season. Greg Gard’s teams always defend well but that’s not going to be enough for Wisconsin to live up to their name this year.
Michigan State was a disaster last season, somehow the Spartans got it together and snuck into the NCAA Tournament but this team just wasn’t very good and it’s unlikely they return to contender status this year. Michigan State gets a nice recruit in Tyson Walker from Northeastern but he’s probably going to need to be one of the main scoring options on this Michigan State team. Tom Izzo should never be underestimated but, like last year, I just don’t think Izzo has the players and he loses Aaron Henry who was arguably his best player. The Michigan State “name” always gets respect on a basketball court so likely an overvalued team against the number here.
I could see Maryland failing to live up to expectations and Rutgers taking a step back after making the NCAA Tournament last year. Minnesota is a complete disaster and will finish dead last in this conference, this should give you more than enough “play against” options when looking at the Big Ten.
Other College Basketball Conference Previews
West Coast Conference Preview
WAC Conference Preview
Big Sky Preview
Mountain West Conference Preview
Pac-12 Conference Preview
Big West Conference Preview
Summit League Preview
Big XII Conference Preview
Missouri Valley Conference Preview
Conference USA Preview
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— Adam Trigger (@TopFlightSI) October 21, 2021
College Basketball Betting Basics
College basketball totals can be one of the most frustrating, yet rewarding, things to handicap in the sports betting sphere. WagerTalk’s Kelly Stewart and Drew Martin help you navigate the finer points of how to handicap college basketball totals. In this round of college basketball betting tips, Drew and Kelly break down five key factors for betting college basketball, including pace of play, changes in tempo and efficiency stats.
2021-22 NCAA Basketball National Championship Odds
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has just released their updated 2021-22 NCAA Basketball National Championship odds, and Gonzaga remains the 6-to-1 favorite, followed by Texas (10-to-1), Kansas (12-to-1) and UCLA (12-to-1). Once the season tips off, WagerTalk’s live odds screen will feature up-to-the-minute betting lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books.
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