Arkansas State vs Troy: Sun Belt Championship Picks For March 10, 2025

Arkansas State and Troy clash in the Sun Belt Championship on Monday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around Arkansas State vs Troy battling for the Sun Belt Championship in Pensacola, FL!

Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this conference championship matchup tipping off at 7:00PM ET on March 10, 2025!

Arkansas State vs Troy Game Details

Date: Monday, March 10, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET / 4:00 PM PT
Broadcast: ESPN2
Location: Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL
Spread: Arkansas State -1.5 | Total: 138.5

Arkansas State vs Troy Betting Preview

When the Sun Belt released its seven-day, ladder-style tournament format, it drew plenty of curious eyeballs. After a week of quirky games in the Pensacola Bay Center, the league has ended up with the two best teams in the championship game.

Arkansas State, Troy, South Alabama and James Madison all ended the regular season at 13-5 and tied atop the league standings.

Troy and Arkansas State were recognized by advanced analytics as the two best teams in the conference, but a complicated set of tiebreakers gave South Alabama and James Madison the top two seeds and a bye into the semifinals while Arkansas State and Troy were forced to play an extra game.

Some level of justice prevailed on Sunday when No. 4-seed Arkansas State took down No. 1 South Alabama, and 3-seed Troy knocked out James Madison.

The Trojans and RedWolves split their regular season series with each team winning on the other’s home court. The under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings, but Monday’s opening total of 138.5 is significantly lower than the closing total from the two regular season meetings (144.5 and 145).

This is a conference championship game with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line so you certainly don’t have to question effort and motivation, but it is fair to question just how prepared Arkansas State is going to be for this specific matchup.

South Alabama was Arkansas State’s bugaboo this season. The Jaguars beat the RedWolves twice in the regular season, and South Alabama’s defense forced Arkansas State into some of its worst performances of the year.

Arkansas State was probably guilty of looking past Marshall on Saturday, and nearly got upset by the Herd.

Arkansas State likely dedicated most of its prep time this week to beating South Alabama’s zone defense, which the RedWolves could not do in the regular season. 

Arkansas State vs Troy Predictions

So with a 24-hour turnaround, can Arkansas State flip the right switch for a different opponent? Troy has won-and-covered five-straight games.

The Trojans’ first two tournament wins have come by 16 and 19 points. Jackson Fields and Tayton Conerway are the only two players to see more than 30 minutes on Sunday as Troy head coach Scott Cross was able to get 13 players in the game and rotate his lineup a bit.

Compare that to Arkansas State, who has been involved in a pair of three-point wins over the last two days. RedWolves’ starting point guard Terrance Ford has played 79 out of a possible 80 minutes.

In Sun Belt play, Troy grabbed an offensive rebound on 40.1-percent of its misses and the Trojans were top-5 in the country in offensive rebounding rate. If tired legs are a factor with three games in three days, Troy looks a little more prepared for this one.

Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction: Troy +1.5

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