Duke vs Virginia: Expert College Basketball Predictions For February 17, 2025

Duke and Virginia clash in a ACC matchup on Monday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around Duke vs Virginia battling in a conference showdown in Charlottesville, VA!

Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this ACC matchup tipping off at 8:00PM ET on February 17, 2025!

Duke vs Virginia Game Details

Date: Monday, February 17, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT
Broadcast: ESPN
Location: John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, VA
Spread: Duke -14.5 | Total: 131.5

Duke vs Virginia Betting Preview

This will be Virginia’s first contest against Duke without Tony Bennett on the sidelines since 2009. The Cavaliers have enjoyed success against the Blue Devils in recent years, but Ron Sanchez will have his hands full in his first clash with Duke.

Since the 2020-21 season, Virginia is 3-4 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread vs the Blue Devils. Five of those seven games stayed under the total, and one of the “overs” required overtime to hit that mark.

That is the direction we’re looking once again on Monday night. Superstar freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel generate most of the headlines in Durham, but head coach Jon Scheyer deserves a lot of credit for how he’s gotten this team to buy-in on the defensive end.

Duke enters Monday top-5 in the country in defensive efficiency, effective field goal shooting allowed and two-point shooting allowed.

In ACC play, Duke’s opponents are shooting 43.6-percent from two-point range, which is over seven percent below the national average.

Per KenPom, Duke’s rotation is the tallest in the country. Virginia’s best chance for success in this matchup is to shoot threes and hope for the best.

The Cavaliers are shooting 37.7-percent from the three-point line this season. Made three-pointers account for 39.2-percent of Virginia’s points this season, which is top-20 in the country.

If three-pointers are not falling, Virginia does not have a path toward generating any other kind of offense.

Duke vs Virginia Predictions

The Cavaliers are outside the top-200 in two-point shooting, and we already outlined how good Duke’s defense is in that department.

Virginia is No. 344 in free throw attempts, so the Cavaliers do not look to get to the foul line. Virginia has played eight games against teams rated inside KenPom’s top-50.

Here’s how many points the Cavaliers have scored in those eight contests: 42, 55, 69, 51, 62, 50, 52 and 67. That’s an average of 56 points per game.

If Duke’s top-5 defense can hold Virginia to a final tally in that neighborhood, we believe this game will stay under the total.

Duke vs Virginia Prediction: Under 131.5

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