Florida vs Auburn: Final Four Picks For April 5, 2025
Florida and Auburn clash in the Final Four on Saturday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around Florida vs Auburn battling in the Final Four in San Antonio, TX!
Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this Final Four game tipping off at 6:09PM ET on April 5, 2025!
Florida vs Auburn Game Details
Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
Time: 6:09 PM ET / 3:09 PM PT
Broadcast: CBS
Location: Alamodome in San Antonio, TX
Spread: Florida -2.5 | Total: 159.5
Florida vs Auburn Betting Preview
It feels a little harsh to say this about two teams that have had amazing seasons and are unquestionably two of the best in the country, but neither Auburn nor Florida has played its best basketball in the NCAA Tournament thus far.
Injuries and the overall wear-and-tear from competing in the SEC can probably be blamed for most of that. Florida’s Alex Condon has been limited a bit after suffering an injury in the first week of the tournament.
The 6-foot-11 sophomore only attempted six shots from the floor against Texas Tech while committing three turnovers.
On the other side, Auburn’s Johni Broome is taking a beating. Broome missed time in mid-January because of an ankle injury.
He suffered a nasty fall against Michigan State last weekend where he hyper-extended his knee then fell on his elbow with the elbow bump becoming the more-severe injury.
Both Condon and Broome are expected to play and both rosters should be at full-strength, but both teams are appreciative of the extended time off between the last round and this one.
We’re going to look at this game very similar to how we looked at Houston against Duke. With the exception of a one-day drop where they were ranked No. 3 at the Maui Invitational, Auburn was a top-2 team in KenPom’s national ratings from November 9 through the SEC Tournament.
They were a top-2 team in the country for four months, and now they are an underdog in the Final Four against a team that is lucky to even be here? That just doesn’t pass the sniff test. KenPom makes Auburn a -1 favorite. Bart Torvik favors the Tigers by -1.2 points.
Haslametrics favors Florida by -1.2 points. So how did we get to Florida -3 at Circa on Thursday afternoon?
When these teams met at Auburn on February 8, the Tigers closed as an 11-point home favorite. This is a very strong adjustment over the course of seven weeks, and we do not believe it is justified. Not only did Auburn win the regular season crown in the toughest conference in the country, the Tigers also played a top-20 non-conference schedule.
Auburn already played BOTH of the other Final Four participants in non-conference play. Florida played the No. 238 non-conference schedule, per KenPom.
Florida’s first nine games of the season were all in the state of Florida. Perhaps that’s why the Gators look a little more fresh at this time of the year, but in our eyes, Auburn has done nothing that warrants a downgrade in the market like we’re seeing.
Florida vs Auburn Predictions
Norfolk State actually out-scored Florida over the final 27 minutes of that contest after the Gators jumped out to a big early lead. In the second round, Florida trailed UConn at several points in the second half and was fortunate to escape that one.
In the Elite Eight, Texas Tech was up by nine with three minutes remaining and choked it away at the free throw line.
Credit the Gators for staying composed and earning those wins, but we just don’t see where Florida should be upgraded by this amount, in conjunction with a downgrade on the Tigers.
Florida vs Auburn Prediction: Auburn +2.5
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