Houston vs Duke: Final Four Picks For April 5, 2025

Houston and Duke clash in the Final Four on Saturday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around Houston vs Duke battling in the Final Four in San Antonio, TX!

Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this Final Four game tipping off at 8:49PM ET on April 5, 2025!

Houston vs Duke Game Details

Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
Time: 8:49 PM ET / 5:49 PM PT
Broadcast: CBS
Location: Alamodome in San Antonio, TX
Spread: Duke -5 | Total: 135.5

Houston vs Duke Betting Preview

We’re going to give you some numbers, then we’ll give you a second to figure out their significance. Ready? Duke: 18, 21, 19, 18 and 22. Houston: 23, 22, 21, 19 and 23. Figure it out?

Those are the current ages of the starting lineup from each team (Happy birthday to Duke’s Tyrese Proctor, who turned 21 on Tuesday).

Jon Scheyer’s Blue Devils have passed every test thrown their way thus far, but in order to cut down the nets in San Antonio, they will have to get past teams that have A LOT of experience on this stage.

Houston’s LJ Cryer, Mylik Wilson and J’Wan Roberts all have over 145 games played in their respective careers. Duke’s Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach were both 17-years-old when they stepped foot on the Durham campus in September.

These teams met in the Sweet 16 last year, but outside of each head coach having a really good gameplan to defend the other, there really isn’t much that can be taken away from that one.

Duke’s Proctor is the only player that is still on the team from last year. On the Houston side, Joseph Tugler was injured and did not play.

Jamal Shead was injured in the first half of that game and the Cougars were left without their starting point guard for the final 26 minutes.

So both head coaches should be applauded for the defensive schemes that they produced, but we’re looking at two completely different lineups in this one. Houston has been significantly better in two areas this season compared to last season: Three-point shooting and free throw shooting.

The Cougars went from outside the top-300 in free throw shooting at 68.7-percent last year to 74.1-percent this year.

Their three-point shooting improved from 34.8-percent last year to the nation’s second-best mark at 39.7-percent this year.

From a power ratings’ perspective, it’s really, really hard to justify a five-point spread in this matchup. KenPom makes this line Duke -2. Haslametrics makes this line Duke -0.5. Bart Torvik has Houston favored by less than a point.

Houston vs Duke Predictions

We’ll take Houston plus the points, and we are interested in the over as well. Duke’s defense needs to prepare for a completely different offense than what it saw against Alabama in the Elite Eight.

Duke’s defense forced the nation’s best rim-or-three offense and forced them into their highest percentage of mid-range shots attempted all season.

Coach Scheyer had a masterful gameplan to defend the Crimson Tide. However, Houston lives in that mid-range “bad” shot attempt neighborhood.

Per Jordan Majewski and Synergy data, Houston is the best “low shot quality” team in the country. The Blue Devils’ defense is likely going to have to un-do some things that have worked for them all season because they might be playing right into the Cougars’ hands.

Houston vs Duke Prediction: Houston +5 / Over 135.5

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