North Carolina vs San Diego State: College Basketball Picks For March 18, 2025

North Carolina and San Diego State clash in a First Four NCAA Tournament game on Tuesday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around North Carolina vs San Diego State battling in a First Four showdown in Dayton, OH!

Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this NCAA Tournament game tipping off at 9:10PM ET on March 18, 2025!

North Carolina vs San Diego State Game Details

Date: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
Time: 9:10 PM ET / 6:10 PM PT
Broadcast: truTV
Location: UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Spread: North Carolina -4.5 | Total: 142.5

North Carolina vs San Diego State Betting Preview

Should a team that went 13-7 in this year’s version of the ACC be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably not. Should a team that went 1-12 in Q1 games this season be in the NCAA Tournament? Probably not.

But the time for those arguments is over, and the Tar Heels still have an opportunity to make some noise in this event.

North Carolina’s lack of wins against top-tier competition is glaring, but this is still a well-rounded team that is “good” (but certainly not great) at just about everything. North Carolina shoots above the national average from three-point range, two-point range and the free throw line.

The Tar Heels have a veteran point guard in RJ Davis who does not turn the ball over. College basketball analyst Will Warren maintains a database that tracks NCAA Tournament teams since 2002.

From an advanced analytics perspective, North Carolina is the fourth-best 11-seed over the last two decades. From a wins-and-losses view, we certainly understand (and support) the argument against having North Carolina in this field.

But now that the Tar Heels are here, it’s important to recognize that they have an advanced profile of a team that is significantly better than their seed would indicate.

Assuming this point spread stays north of -4, this will be the 11th First Four game in Dayton with a point spread greater than four points.

The favorite has gone 9-1 straight-up, 8-2 against the spread in the previous ten. That trend includes both the 16 vs 16 matchups and 11 vs 11 matchups.

If you remove the 16 vs 16 matchups and just focus on the at-large 11 vs 11 games, the favorite is 5-0 straight-up and against the spread.

Instead of looking at the side, we’re a little more interested in the total. San Diego State’s 7-foot freshman Magoon Gwath has missed the last six games because of injury, but all indications are that he is good-to-go tonight.

Without Gwath patrolling the paint, the over went 4-2 in San Diego State’s last six games. With him, the Aztecs are a completely different team on the defensive end.

Since February 1, Gwath has recorded four blocks against Wyoming, four blocks with one steal against San Jose State and five blocks with one steal against Boise State.

North Carolina vs San Diego State Predictions

San Diego State was eliminated in the first round of the Mountain West Tournament, so the Aztecs have enjoyed some extra time to rest and prep for this one.

Over the last two seasons, San Diego State has advanced to the Sweet Sixteen and the National Championship Game.

When you add the Aztecs’ Mountain West Tournament games with their NCAA Tournament games, those high-leverage contests have seen an average of 131.3 points per game and the under is 10-5 (would have been 11-4 in regulation, but one game went “over” in overtime).

North Carolina vs San Diego State Prediction: Under 142.5

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