Notre Dame vs St Mary’s NCAAB Picks and Predictions Nov 22

Notre Dame vs St Mary’s Betting Preview

WagerTalk and GoldSheet Director of Content James Bunting offers his Notre Dame vs St Mary’s betting preview for Monday, November 22 as part of the Las Vegas-based Maui Invitational. At the time of posting, the Fighting Irish have opened as a 1-point favorite over the Gaels, with the total at 132 points.

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Notre Dame vs St Mary’s Predictions

• Notre Dame -1 vs St Mary’s
• Total: 132 points
• Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
• 11:30pm ET / 8:30pm PT
• Broadcast on ESPN2

The Maui Invitational has been moved to Las Vegas’ Michelob Ultra Arena inside the Mandalay Bay for this year due to ongoing COVID-related travel restrictions getting in and out of Hawaii. The location is different, but the field remains terrific as teams like Oregon, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Butler and Houston join the Gaels and Fighting Irish in Las Vegas.

This is the ultimate strength-on-strength matchup. Few teams shoot as many three-pointers as the Irish, and no one is better at running teams off the three-point line like St Mary’s. So far this season, 50.4-percent of Notre Dame’s field goal attempts have come from three-point range. Last year, St Mary’s was No. 3 in the country in fewest threes allowed.

Irish guard Prentiss Hubb is 1-for-13 from deep so far this season, and Notre Dame as a team is shooting 29.3-percent from three-point range. So if the Irish are going to continue their high-volume approach from deep, they’re going to need a couple more of those to fall if they’re going to have success tonight.

St Mary’s ranks No. 14 in KenPom’s minutes continuity and this team is loaded with upper classmen who are hungry to atone for last year’s lost season. The Gaels’ top three producers this season – Dan Fotu, Logan Johnson and Tommy Kuhse – are all seniors. Here’s how St Mary’s ranked in three-point shooting over the last five years:

2016: 41.0-percent (No. 6 in the nation)
2017: 39.4-percent (No. 15)
2018: 41.0-percent (No. 5)
2019: 37.8-percent (No. 32)
2020: 29.4-percent (No. 327)

It’s pretty easy to see where last year’s season went off the rails. St Mary’s top shooter, Alex Ducas, missed the majority of last season with a shoulder injury and that sent the Gaels’ shooting into a tailspin. It’s hard to use last year’s numbers with this year’s team, because with him back in the lineup, they’re a whole new unit.

My colleagues from The GoldSheet may offer a slight disagreement and you can check out their analysis below, but I’ve got my eyes on St Mary’s in a virtual pick’em tonight against Notre Dame.

☀️ Rise and shine! Today’s college basketball slate starts in a little over four hours (11am ET tip!). Our odds screen is separated into these mini tournaments to help you quickly and easily find the games that you’re looking for.
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— WagerTalk (@WagerTalk) November 22, 2021

Notre Dame vs St Mary’s Analysis from The GoldSheet

Saint Mary’s comes off a 14-10 season that was extremely disappointing by its high standards under head coach Randy Bennett. Meanwhile, Notre Dame suffered through a second losing season in three years under Mike Brey, who is looking to take his team back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. Both teams have rolled through warm-up games and come in undefeated, which makes this a potential springboard for programs looking to bounce back from rocky seasons since the winner here should get a date against Oregon with a trip to Wednesday’s championship on the line.

Dan Fotu has led five double-figure scorers with 13.3 points off the bench for Saint Mary’s, who return a lot of seniors. The same goes for the Irish, who have been led by Yale transfer forward Paul Atkinson so far in addition to getting significant contributions from freshman wing Blake Wesley, a South Bend native.

Happy Hour Tip-Off Show

Get your daily fix of college hoops betting information with Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of handicapping guests. The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Marquee non-conference tournaments are popping up across the country. Which games should you be keeping a close eye on? Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down the college basketball card from a sports betting perspective. Monday’s featured games include: Seton Hall vs Ohio State; Kansas State vs Arkansas; and Notre Dame vs Saint Mary’s.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads and totals for all of Monday’s NCAAB games, including this Notre Dame vs St Mary’s showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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