Ole Miss vs Michigan State: NCAA Tournament Picks For March 28, 2025
Ole Miss and Michigan State clash in a Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament game on Friday night in college basketball. Get college basketball picks for today around Ole Miss vs Michigan State battling in a Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament matchup in Atlanta, GA!
Here’s a breakdown of predictions and picks for this Sweet 16 NCAA Tournament game tipping off at 7:09PM ET on March 28, 2025!
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Game Details
Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
Time: 7:09 PM ET / 4:09 PM PT
Broadcast: CBS
Location: State Farm Arena in Atlanta, GA
Spread: Michigan State -3.5 | Total: 144.5
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Betting Preview
We mentioned this number last week during the opening rounds, and it fits again here: In a complicated college basketball world where stats and numbers are flying in all directions, sometimes you can keep it as simple as possible.
Per college basketball analyst Evan Abrams, when one team is shooting above 75-percent from the free throw line and one team is shooting below 75-percent from the free throw line, the better-shooting team has gone 98-59-2 (62.4-percent) against the spread in the NCAA Tournament over the last six years.
With the increased importance of the three-point shot in college basketball, three-point variance has been a very important metric to follow for handicappers (look no further than Alabama breaking Tournament records on Thursday).
If a team is running hot from the three-point line, see if they are doing other things well or if they’re simply running red-hot from beyond the arc.
If a defense is allowing a high percentage from the three-point line, dig in a little deeper to see if they’re actually defending well and just getting beat because of three-point shot variance.
Well, we’re 35 games into the season and no one can make a three-pointer against Michigan State. Sure, some of that is variance, but with a 35-game sample size, Coach Izzo is clearly doing something right in that area.
Opponents are shooting 27.8-percent from three-point range against the Spartans this season, which is six-percent below the national average.
Bryant and New Mexico combined to shoot 9-for-37 (24.3-percent) from beyond the arc in the first two rounds. On the other side, you have an Ole Miss team that has gotten hot at the right time.
The Rebels shot a combined 48.7-percent from beyond the arc against North Carolina and Iowa State. The 11 three-pointers against the Cyclones was the most Ole Miss has made in a game since February 4.
If the Rebels can stay hot from three-point range, anything can happen. But from an x’s and o’s standpoint, we’re struggling to see where Ole Miss will have advantages.
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Predictions
Per Synergy data, Ole Miss is No. 5 in the country in running isolated, one-on-one dribble sets on offense. Michigan State’s defense is No. 7 in the country in defending the one-on-one dribble and No. 4 in the country in overall defensive efficiency.
The glaring issue that Ole Miss is facing in this one comes from the glass. Michigan State is top-20 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding.
Ole Miss was last in the SEC in offensive rebounding rate. In the NCAA Tournament, Michigan State is 44-9 straight-up, 32-19-2 against the spread as a favorite under Coach Izzo. When given extra time to prepare, the Spartans are 20-13-2 ATS under Izzo.
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Prediction: Michigan State -3.5
FREE March Madness Betting Guide Now Available
Gear up for the Madness with our must-have 2025 March Madness Guide!
Here’s what’s included in your FREE 9-page Betting Guide:
✅ 21 Proven March Madness Betting Systems & Sub-Systems
✅ Straight-Up, ATS, & Over/Under records—sorted by seeds and tournament rounds from the past four years
✅ Conference Records as Favorites and Underdogs (last 4 years)
✅ National Championship Odds Comparison: DraftKings vs. FanDuel
✅ The Biggest March Madness Upsets Since 2012
GoldSheet Top Picks
Whether you enjoy written analysis, breaking down stats or creating your own power ratings, The Basketball GoldSheet has something for everyone.
The Basketball GoldSheet newsletter features stat breakdowns for every NBA and college basketball game each day, plus in-depth written analysis on our Key Releases by 12pm ET / 9am PT each morning. Grab a 30-day pass for just over $2 per day and we’ll see you on the hardwood.
Stay Updated for More Betting Insights
Stay updated on the latest college basketball betting insights and predictions at Wagertalk.com, where we provide expert analysis throughout the 2024-2025 college basketball season.
Watch ALL of the College Basketball Free Picks Videos and Betting Reviews for the Week!
Love What You See? Sign Up for a Free WagerTalk Account!
Sign up to receive game-day updates, late breaking releases, free picks, best bets, exclusive betting features, pay per game and package access, contests, community networking, award-winning content and much more. Get your account today – it’s FREE!
Becoming a member of Wagertalk.com is 100% FREE with NO OBLIGATION or CREDIT CARD REQUIRED! Upon sign-up, you get instant access to our community and special offers and free picks. Sign up to WagerTalk now!
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!
