San Francisco vs St Mary’s College Basketball Predictions and Odds Jan 27
San Francisco vs St Mary’s Betting Preview
WagerTalk College Basketball handicapper Tony Finn offers his San Francisco vs St Mary’s analysis. At the time of posting, the Dons of San Francisco have opened as a 3.5-point home favorite over the visiting Gaels, with the total sitting at 130 points.
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| Thursday, January 27 | WCC Basketball Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | San Francisco Dons -3.5 vs St Mary’s Gaels |
| Total: | 130 Points |
| Game Time: | 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT |
| Arena: | War Memorial at Sobrato Center in San Francisco |
| TV: | Stadium Sports |
San Francisco vs St Mary’s Analysis
Saint Mary’s Gaels (15-4, 3-1 WCC) and San Francisco Dons (16-4, 3-2 WCC) are scheduled to take the hardwood for a Thursday night West Coast Conference matchup at War Memorial at the Sobrato Center in San Francisco, CA. Tipoff is set for 10:00pm ET and 7:00pm here in Vegas.
Randy Bennett’s Gaels are a seasoned squad. Kenpom ranks St. Mary’s a program with the 78th most experienced in Division I basketball and a collective with an elite 77.6 percent continuity rating. The Gaels have the 68th longest reach in the college ranks, and Bennett trusts his starters to know how to play with two fouls in the first half.
Head coach Todd Golden leads the San Fran squad. As a former Gaels’ point guard, his comfort zone in the West Coast Conference is unquestioned. His four years at St. Mary’s included two NCAA Tournament appearances. Golden’s senior season for St Mary was his best at the collegiate level. Golden ranked second in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio and graduated as the Gaels’ all-time most accurate free-throw shooter connecting on .832 percent of his attempts.
Gaels Built to Steal Conference Road Wins
St. Mary’s junior guard Alex Ducas (10.6 points per game) tied his season-high with 22 points in the Gaels slam dunk of Loyola Marymount in their last scheduled matchup. This past Saturday, St Mary’s entered Gersten Pavilion arena in Los Angeles and wired the Lions with an 83-51 victory.
Senior guard Logan Johnson (10.6 ppg) scored 16 points for the St. Mary’s road warriors, and the team’s leading scorer, Matthias Tass (12.3 ppg), connected for 10 points in the blowout win in the Lions’ den.
The most efficient defense in the West Coast Conference held Loyola Marymount to just 25 second-half points, a season-low for the Lions.
The Gaels are a dangerous animal and a threat to the elite programs in the West Coast Conference because of their ability to defend. Coach Bennett always has his crew prepared. St Mary’s is a play-on in games bookmakers expect to be hard-fought and low-scoring, and the Gaels are involved.
The glaring liability of this season’s Gaels first-five and second rotation is that they are suspect at the rim. Bennett’s defensive scheme of running the opposition off the 3-line and forcing them to score off the dribble rather than via assist can be a burden for this year’s team.
Bennett’s defensive style, year-in, and year-out is susceptible to an opposition’s game night rim attack. The Gaels are 7-1 against the spread this season when the bookmakers’ closing total is between 120 and 129.5 points.
Dons 11-1 Home Record a Mirage
This season’s San Francisco squad is a mirror image of last year’s, as both were and are far too dependent on the guards carrying the heavyweight. Labeling coach Golden’s squad backcourt-heavy is neither misleading nor unreasonable. USF returns the program’s top two guards from a year ago, Jamaree Bouyea (17.9 points per game) and Khalil Shabazz (12.4 ppg).
Bouyea and Shabazz are a near-perfect fit in Golden’s ball-screen heavy offense. The dynamic duo combines with the frontcourt in creating open looks from the 3-line with physical ball-screens.
USFs scuffled a season ago was due to the roster lacking size and length in the paint. An undersized frontcourt isn’t favorable in any Division I conference. Still, the Don’s are susceptible to defensive lapses when facing athletic and talent-rich forwards plus stretch-5 personnel that the top teams in WCC roster.
Golden and his staff did their best to sell their school and team package to the best in the transfer portal this offseason, and the results did bring in the necessary length. Transfers Yauhen Massalski (13.8 ppg) and former Blue Devil Patrick Tape (4.7 ppg) were expected to fill the role of rim protectors and offer coach Golden the ability to stretch the floor and draw the game night bigs out of the paint and to the perimeter.
To the dismay of the global Dons faithful, the transfers have not lived up to their offseason hype. Massalski recorded a double-double in the team’s Saturday victory over Pepperdine, recording 12 points and ten rebounds. Bouyea added 11 points while Gabe Stefanini netted 10 points.
Inconsistency was the best word to describe the Dons a season ago. The San Fran troupe has been much more efficient and level from game night to game night this season, but the squad has not completely expelled those bipolar demons.
Perhaps the best example and evidence of the team’s Jekyll and Hide personality is scoring just 48 points in a loss to Grand Canyon then directly following the defeat with a victory over Pac 12 Arizona State.
San Francisco vs St Mary’s Prediction
St Mary’s is an experienced and balanced team with all five starters averaging over 8.5 points per game. The Gaels own the West Coast Conference’s top defense and the age ole adage that defensive travels should not be dismissed.
The Gaels are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games overall, while the Under the total game proposition has cashed at a 49-16 clip across the Gaels last 65 games as a closing game night underdog.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is just 5-7 against the spread as a home favorite while winning 11 of their last 12 straight up. Saint Mary’s returns every point scored in 2020-21. The Gaels are one of only three teams in Division I that return every point scored a year ago.
WagerTalk’s pick to click tonight in the Bay Area is a play on the St. Mary’s Gaels plus the points.
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NCAAB Stat Sheet
Each day, WagerTalk handicapper Ralph Michaels puts together his College Basketball Stat Sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on this San Francisco vs St Mary’s contest.
Happy Hour Tip-Off Show
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College Basketball Betting Tips
College basketball totals can be one of the most frustrating, yet rewarding, things to handicap in the sports betting ‘sphere. WagerTalk’s Kelly Stewart and Drew Martin help you navigate the finer points of how to handicap college basketball totals. In this round of college basketball betting tips, Drew and Kelly break down five key factors for betting college basketball, including pace of play, changes in tempo and efficiency stats.
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