Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson Prediction, Betting Picks & Top Odds: NCAA Tournament March 15

Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson Prediction: The Betting Preview

Wednesday’s night’s Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson opening round matchup features two teams that got into the NCAA Tournament through unconventional methods. The Tigers from the SWAC have opened as a two-point favorite over the Knights from the Northeast Conference.

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Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson NCAA Tournament Pick : Best Betting Odds

Wednesday, March 15	Game Notes & Top Odds NCAA Tournament, Courtesy of Caesars
Point Spread:	Texas Southern -2 vs Fairleigh Dickinson
Total:	145.5 points
Arena:	UD Arena in Dayton, OH
Game Time:	6:40pm ET / 3:40pm PT
TV:	truTV

Texas Southern Betting Analysis

Texas Southern knows its way around Dayton, but the Tigers took an unusual path to get here this season.

Texas Southern has made the NCAA Tournament four times in the last six years and has played in Dayton’s opening round three times since 2018, winning all three of those.

But this year’s path to Dayton looks a lot different than years’ past because Texas Southern was 12-19 entering the SWAC Tournament.

The Tigers rolled through the conference tournament as a No. 8 seed, beating Alabama State, Prairie View A&M and Arkansas Pine Bluff by 14+ in each game.

The Tigers’ early-season slump can be pointed toward two things:

1) They traditionally play one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, and this year was no exception. According to KenPom, Texas Southern played the No. 4 non-conference schedule with seven top-100 opponents.

2) The Tigers had to navigate some injuries, particularly to center Joirdon Karl Nicholas. The 6-9 senior missed four of Texas Southern’s first five SWAC games, and they lost all four of them. Since his return, the Tigers have gone 10-6 and Nicholas has three double-doubles in his last six games.

Fairleigh Dickinson Betting Analysis

Let’s flip to the other side where Fairleigh Dickinson is the second school in the last two years to earn an automatic bid despite losing in its conference tournament.

Jacksonville State represented the Atlantic Sun last year when Bellarmine wasn’t eligible, and the Knights will represent the NEC this year, despite losing to ineligible Merrimack in the conference championship game.

The Knights are the smallest team in the country and use their speed to orchestrate a full-court press. After going 4-22 last season, Fairleigh Dickinson has enjoyed a fantastic turnaround in Tobin Anderson’s first season on the bench.

Texas Southern NCAA Tournament Experience Vital

Ultimately, we believe Texas Southern’s experience in this spot will be too much to overcome. Head coach Johnny Jones took over the program in 2018.

Since then, he went to the finals of the CIT Tournament (won three-straight road games then lost the championship by one in overtime on the road), beat Mount Saint Mary’s in the NCAA Tournament in 2021 and beat Texas A&M-CC in last year’s NCAA Tournament. They’ve been here before. They know the stage that they are on.

Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson Schedule Strength

Texas Southern has played a top-30 non-conference schedule each of the last nine years. The Tigers know what it’s like to play against Arizona State, Houston, Auburn and Kansas.

According to KenPom’s metrics, Fairleigh Dickinson played the easiest schedule in the country this season, and only played one opponent in the top-150 (Pitt). That’s hard to ignore.

Texas Southern vs Fairleigh Dickinson Expert Prediction

The Knights’ full-court press will probably cause Texas Southern some problems, but the Tigers should have a huge advantage on the glass.

Texas Southern led the SWAC in defensive rebounding rate. The Tigers will start four players at 6-5 or taller, including two at 6-9. Fairleigh Dickinson doesn’t have anyone taller than 6-6 on its roster. Lay the small number with Texas State.

Prediction: Texas Southern -2

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NCAA Tournament Tip-Off Show | Betting Trends and Angles

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