The PLAYERS Championship 2025: Expert Predictions & Betting Preview

The PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview

WagerTalk golf handicapper Nick Borrman offers his thoughts on The PLAYERS Championship teeing off from TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL! Nick discusses the guys at the top of the odds board, a long shot to win and other expert picks surrounding The PLAYERS Championship starting on March 13th!

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The PLAYERS Championship	The PLAYERS Championship Betting Notes
When:	March 13-16
Where:	TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
Defending Champ:	Scottie Scheffler
Current Favorite:	Scottie Scheffler (+400 at DraftKings)
TV:	Golf Channel, NBC

The PLAYERS Championship Odds Board

Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel , DraftKings and others)

The PLAYERS Championship Betting Preview

TPC Sawgrass is designed by the notorious Pete Dye and presents one of the toughest challenges the players face every season. Very much like last week at Bay Hill, we usually don’t see too many players reach double-digit under par, except for last year which was one of the lowest average scores in tournament history.

18 players reached the 10-under mark with Scheffler’s 8-under on Sunday stealing the win at 20-under total. The previous year, Scheffler ran away with it at 17-under, but he was one of only four players to reach 10-under.

Only three times since 1996 has the winning score reached 17-under, which gives you an idea of how rare it is to go that low here, but it’s now back-to-back years. An anomaly, or a sign of things to come?

The track plays as a stock par-72 measuring a little over 7,300 yards, so it’s not one of the longest courses the guys face all year.

However, 77 yards have been added for this year’s edition including four holes with new tees. But length isn’t Dye’s shtick. Dye prioritizes accuracy over length and all his courses are designed to reward good shots while penalizing even slightly errant shots.

Birdies can be found with well struck irons but miss on approach by a just a few inches and double bogey quickly comes into play. Of course, there is no better example of that than the famous 17th hole island green par 3.

Last week at Bay Hill, the best ball-strikers in the field rose to the top by the end of the tournament as yet another player ranking in the Top-10 Total SG over the previous 12 months won. That makes it a perfect 4-for-4 in Signature Events this season and all signs point to it again this week.

Scottie’s win last year was the first time ever that a player won back-to-back at THE PLAYERS, so by the laws of physics (!) there must be no chance of a 3-peat. Auto-fade Scottie this week!

Here are some more important trends to pay attention to this week:

Course Experience

Aside from the inaugural addition, there have only been two first-time winners of this event.

16 of the last 17 winners finished at least 23rd in a previous PLAYERS Championship.

10 of the last 14 winners played in at least five previous PLAYERS Championship. (Scottie was twice not the case the last two years)

Current Form

Each of the last 26 winners has made the cut in their previous start.
18 of the last 20 winners ranked in the top 35 in SG Approach over the prior 12 months.
11 of the last 13 winners ranked in the top 45 in SG Around the Green over the previous 12 months.

12 of the last 13 winners finished at least 22nd in their previous start.

And finally, one more than is entirely out of the players’ control. 14 of the last 17 winners have played in the Thursday AM / Friday PM wave.

If those above trends didn’t highlight it for you, I’ll spell it out simply. Zero in on elite iron players that also have strong short games. Driving and putting take a back seat this week.

Weather looks solid this week with temperatures in the mid-70s all four days. Wind is forecasted to increase over the weekend in the 10-20 mph range and upwards of 25 on Saturday, but rain should not be a factor.

The PLAYERS Championship Predictions

Winner: Collin Morikawa +1400 | Top-10 +160 | Top-20 -140

I think the close call last week helps him get over the edge this week. He played well on Sunday but was just outdone by Russell Henley, and let’s be honest, if not for Henley’s eagle chip-in on #16, Morikawa likely wins that tournament.

That marks Morikawa’s 2^nd runner-up of 2025 thus far (The Sentry) and 3^rd in his last six starts (Tour Championship) as he continues to knock on the door on grabbing his first win in 18-months (2023 ZOZO Championship).

Morikawa hit the ball beautifully last week, leading the field in SG Ball-striking which is the combination of Off the Tee and Approach. He was basically break-even with his putter at -0.12 so he will likely need to improve slightly to win this week, but his ball-striking alone will put him in the mix.

Morikawa has only had one Top-15 finish in five starts here, but Sawgrass is notorious for inconsistent results even for the best players in the game.

Rory has 15 starts, a win and three Top-10s, but also six MCs. Justin Thomas won 2021, but in his four other most recent starts, T33 was his best. Bottom line, don’t put too much stock into track record here.

Winner: Sepp Straka +5000 | Top-10 +450 | Top-20 +210

Rinse and repeat here as Straka had yet another great week last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, finishing T5, while he also kicked off the Florida Swing in style, finishing T11 at the Cognizant Classic. That is now seven Top-15 finishes in his last nine starts including a win at The American Express in January.

His iron game is up there with the top players in the world, and although he doesn’t hit it long, his driver accuracy keeps him gaining strokes Off the Tee.

That accuracy could gain him a few more strokes given the extended rough length of 4 inches this week, like we saw last week at Bay Hill.

Finally, Straka does have some decent finishes here recently with two Top-16 finishes in his last three starts at TPC Sawgrass. I expect his current form will combine nicely with confidence on this track.

See you next week for the Valspar Championship!

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