UNC vs Michigan Big 10 vs ACC Picks and Predictions

UNC vs Michigan Betting Preview

WagerTalk college basketball handicapper Tony Finn offers his UNC vs Michigan betting preview for Wednesday, December 1 as part of the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. At the time of posting, the Wolverines are 1.5-point road favorites at North Carolina, with the total at 148.5 points.

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UNC vs Michigan Predictions

• North Carolina Tar Heels +1.5 vs Michigan Wolverines
• Total: 148.5 points
• Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina
• 9:15pm ET / 6:15pm PT
• Broadcast on ESPN

On Wednesday night, the ACC/Big 10 Challenge finds ESPN covering No. 24 ranked Michigan (4-2) and North Carolina (4-2) at the Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Tipoff for this late tip for and eastern seaboard contest is scheduled for 9:15pm ET. These teams have met three times over the last five seasons. The two tradition-rich basketball programs’ all-time head-to-head series record stands at an even-steven 4-4.

North Carolina first-year head coach Hubert Davis and his squad are in action for the first time since a 73-53 victory over UNC Asheville last Tuesday. As is the case for most college teams in November, the win by the Tar Heels was everything but cohesive. Davis’ troupe committed 18 turnovers in an untidy display of Davis’ uptempo offensive scheme. Expect North Carolina to play with energy and more focus Wednesday night with a week to mend bumps and bruises and prepare for a well-balanced Michigan Wolverines team.

Everything Michigan begins and ends with senior point guard Eli Brooks. The last meeting between these two power programs found Brooks scoring 24 points and grabbing five rebounds while shooting a ridiculously effecient 64 percent from the field and the 3-point line. North Carolina sophomore guard Caleb Love averages 15.2 points per game while adding nearly four rebounds and assists to his game night slash line.

The Wolverines are 4-2 on the young season with losses to Seton Hall and Arizona. Michigan escaped the Crisler Center this past Wednesday with a sloppy but winning performance against Tarleton State with a 65-54 victory littered with sloppy play resulting in an abundance of turnovers. A road win over North Carolina would be Michigan’s first quality win of 2021. The Tar Heels two November losses came against ranked foes. North Carolina was defeated 93-84 to then-No #6 ranked Purdue, followed by a second consecutive defeat to then-No 17 Tennessee. North Carolina is also without a quality win this season.

Michigan Wolverines

The trip to Chapel Hill represents the first actual road game for the Wolverines this season. The Wolverines are playing a conservative brand of basketball in the early stages of the 2021 season. They are sharing the basketball and creating open elbow jumpers from midrange with the team moving the basketball from side to side, working their half-court offensive sets with a balanced attack. Michigan has assisted on 53 percent of the team’s field goal attempts.

The Wolverines are shooting 29.1% from three-point land as a team. Michigan allows 64.5 points per game across their first six 2021 contests.

North Carolina Tar Heels

The Heels’ 6’10” forward Armando Bacot has averaged 15.7 points and 8.7 rebounds. The UNC power forward has connected on 66.7 percent of his shots from the field.

Like Michigan, this 2021-22 UNC squad is young and inexperienced at this level of basketball. In coordination with R.J. Davis at the point, Bacot and Love, sophomore shooting forward Dawson Garcia, and senior Leaky Black are North Carolina’s starting five. However, while young, this is a deep UNC roster that can wear teams down with their pace of play and fresh legs seemingly every five minutes.

Sophomore guard Kerwin Walton and senior forward Brady Manek contribute meaningful minutes off the bench for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has won its last three home games, scoring an average of 83 points while surrendering 69.

North Carolina is playing at an adjusted tempo that ranks 47th in Division I. Davis’ offense has an average possession length of 15.2 seconds per Kenpom’s advanced analysis charts. The Heels rate as the second highest-scoring team in the ACC, averaging 83.2 points per game.

UNC’s 83 points per game average come via a 48.7 shooting percentage overall and an unsustainable 41.4 percent shooting from distance. The Tar Heels surrender 78.7 points a game.

What We Know

• The Wolverines are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
• The Tar Heels are 0-6 against the spread in their last six home games.

North Carolina likes to play fast. Michigan doesn’t. The Heels rank No. 47th in adjusted tempo, while the Wolverines are No. 354 out of 358 Division 1 programs.

Sloppy play with a large number of turnovers has been a commonality for both squads. Michigan has 89 so far this season, while UNC has 81. However, the Tar Heels turnover totals are somewhat deceptive considering the pace of play they do their hardwood work at.

Michigan has a hard-to-look-at turnover rate per possession. The Wolverines give the ball away at a difficult to ignore 21.5 percent of their possessions, according to KenPom.

However, this Davis-led Tar Heels squad is defensively inept. “The elephant in the room, of course, is Hubert Davis’ defense. Here’s the thing: I couldn’t possibly tell you whether the issue is a scheme problem, but what I can tell you is that right now, the Heels aren’t playing team basketball on that side of the floor,” wrote Brandon Anderson, who contributes to TarHeelBlog.

The Michigan trio of senior starters keep the youth of the Wolverines patient and slowly but surely find the Heels sucking air from their pace of play and the Michigan smothering defense.

Happy Hour Tip-Off Show

Get your daily fix of college hoops betting information with Joe Raineri and a rotating panel of handicapping guests. The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down the college basketball card from a sports betting perspective. On Wednesday’s episode, we’ll break down this UNC vs Michigan clash, in addition to Oklahoma vs Florida and Michigan State vs Louisville.

WagerTalk Live Odds Screen

WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the point spreads and totals for all of Wednesday’s NCAAB games, including this UNC vs Michigan showdown, from your desktop or phone.

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