Virginia Tech vs St Bonaventure Picks and Odds Dec 17
Virginia Tech vs St Bonaventure Betting Preview
WagerTalk college basketball handicapper Tokyo Brandon offers his Virginia Tech vs St Bonaventure betting preview for Friday, December 17. At the time of posting, the Hokies are holding steady as a 3-point favorite over the Bonnies, with the total sitting at 127 points.
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| Fri, Dec 17 | NCAAB Betting Notes |
|---|---|
| Point Spread: | Virginia Tech Hokies -3 vs St Bonaventure Bonnies |
| Total: | 127 Points |
| Game Time: | 4:00pm ET / 1:00pm PT |
| Arena: | Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Virginia Tech vs St Bonaventure Predictions
The 8-2 Bonnies take on the 7-4 Hokies in what is expected to be a great game. This is the second game of the Basketball Hall of Fame Shootout at the Spectrum Center in North Carolina.
The Bonnies will get Kyle Lofton back from a three game absence and will need him after suffering their second loss of the season to the UConn Huskies Saturday. The Bonnies have impressive wins over Clemson and Marquette and have not lost two in a row since the start of last season. This is a packed backcourt with two good guards. Jaren Holmes has had 10 or more points in 9 of the 10 games he has played in while Jalen Adaway has scored more than 10 in all nine of his starts and averages 14.6 points per game.
The Hokies are also entering this tilt off of a loss to Dayton. In that game, the Hokies only made 21 shots in a terrible effort. This is a front-court dominant team starting with forward Keve Aluma, who has had double-digit scoring in nine of his games. He averages 14.4 points per game.
One interesting stat about the Bonnies is they are 4-1 against the spread off of a loss. Virginia Tech does not play well against good competition. They have lost 4 of their last 6 games against top tier teams.
St. Bonaventure plays at a slow pace. They hold opponents to 47.9% FG% which is fairly average compared to the national average of 47.9%. They do not shoot particularly well from the field or 3-pointers. They are not a very good offensive rebounding team either.
Virginia Tech are excellent at holding opponents to few offensive rebounds, so the Bonnies will get very few second chance points. Virginia Tech has a major edge in the paint with big men so St. Bonaventure will have to shoot from the outside to win this, which is not their M.O. It will also make it difficult for them to do what they do best, shoot free throws. Virginia Tech is also a slow paced team which is why the over/under for this game is so low, at 129. Virginia Tech is the better 3 point shooting team and do it a lot more. The Bonnies struggle to defend the 3.
Here is my data breakdown of the matchup.
FG% 3P% FT% OPP% Proj %
Virginia Tech -7 124 66 53.0% 39.3% 71.7% 45.1% 50.5%
St. Bonaventure 7 59 51.5% 34.2% 79.1% 47.9% 48.3%
I have Tech a 7 point favorite. I think the score should be low since neither team is an offensive rebounding team and neither should get to the FT line much. I have the total at 124. More than the total, I like Virginia Tech to cover the 2.5 point spread. This is a neutral court but the Hokies can force the Bonnies out of their inside game and make them shoot from the outside. Tech is a better shooting team and has a better defense. Make a small play on Tech and lay the points.
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Virginia Tech vs St Bonaventure Analysis from The GoldSheet
Not to overdramatize things, but this might be a crossroads game for St. Bona. It’s the last chance for anything resembling a signature non-conference win, and it probably wouldn’t even be that much as VT has had its own issues this season. Though an earlier win over Marquette was encouraging, if the Bonnies want to be considered a serious threat in the Dance for the first time since the Bob Lanier era, as many projected this year’s senior-laden team to be, then it simply has to beat teams like Northern Iowa and UConn, which it hasn’t, and, obviously, the Hokies.
It has not gone quite according to plan in Blacksburg, either, with Wofford transfer PG Storm Murphy fairly classified as a disappointment to date; rated as one of the best shooters in the portal, Murphy is scoring just 4.5 ppg across the past six outings (four of those being VPI losses), hitting just 31% from the floor and 21% beyond the arc. Not what Mike Young was expecting, as the offense instead runs mostly thru the blocks with 6-9 Keve Aluma (14.4 ppg) and 6-7 former Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts (10.1 ppg).
Bona should have a significant edge on the perimeter with a loaded backcourt featuring four DD scorers and paced again by four-year starting PG Kyle Lofton and running mate Jaren Holmes (both 17.4 ppg). Even riding four straight spread Ls, we’ll give Bona one more chance…also because the Hokies have exhausted them on their side.
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